EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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55F here. Outstanding weather today.
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Agreed totally. That's the most interesting facet to watch for with this particular MJO passage. With the potential WWB possibly initiating another downwelling Kelvin wave as well. Curious to see how this plays out. I'll certainly be watching this one with interest. WPAC SSTs are toasty.
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I didn't say one word about snow or cold. You're making a lot of assumptions here about that post. And I realized that immediately, hence the snarky response. We're talking about the MJO. That doesn't automatically mean we're looking for snow or cold. I've been very objective on analysis of the MJO all season long. So I don't appreciate being lumped into some "snow parade". Sorry to rain on your strawman argument.
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The point of what? Not sure what your point is.
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Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play.
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Canadian ensembles have something out there as well. It's possible to squeeze something in if we get the favorable PNA spike. Just from a pattern point of view. Gotta keep an eye on it.
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Gefs isn't too bad either TBH.
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EPS may be starting to get interested in the 14th. This is the best look it's had thus far for that period from what I've seen. Let's gin up some more support.
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Definitely did in the tropics this run. Much more of the gefs type looks there among the individual members then there have been at 12z. I think it makes sense too, with what the gefs is doing. According to the sst layout currently anyway.
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Yeah I see what you mean. I actually think the gefs has done fairly well this year in the tropics. Euro guidance can get overamped sometimes late. I've seen it happen a couple times this season.
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Those RMM charts don't tell the whole story. Careful with those.
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Eps is still getting a little crazy with forcing near Indonesia late in the runs. Gefs isn't really doing that. Not nearly as dramatic at least. Holds on to the split forcing look longer. Lots of spread amongst the eps members with this. With some really going overboard still in that area. But also some others more gefs like. It'll be interesting to see what happens there. I'm pretty confident the weeklies will be a torch today. Being based on the 00z eps. Still low confidence for end of the month for me.
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It's nice to see the gfs and euro showing something for that timeframe. At least both can "see" a possibility. CMC tried to do something but made a mess of it. Promising.
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I like that period for some sort of storm. Mentioned it the other day. Pv lobe pulled away, PNA spike. Keep an eye on that.
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EPS had a select few members getting a little crazy around Indonesia very late. Here's one example of that below. I suspect this is overdone, but will have to watch. More of some sort of split forcing looks on many others. This is when I'm uncomfortable, until gefs and eps are on the same page. Wondering if it has something to do with the tropical systems in the IO and how they're ultimately treated. Not sure. Tricky timeframe for now.
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00z href fram was gross. Stay safe out there. -
Truth be told, I would welcome a warm 2nd half. Just not a lot of confidence yet how that timeframe shakes out. Need to wait it out a bit longer.
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That's cool. You already put away the winter attire. Nothing to worry about then.
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Not necessarily. That's tropical stuff not 500mb anomalies. Have to be careful there. Especially later in the period. Tropical convection is the most complicated parameter on modeling. Best to just monitor trends. I wouldn't read too much into those RMM charts right now either. If we're dealing with competing areas of forcing.
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Yeah, was just looking through that stuff from 00z. That's exactly what it looks like. Something like that. Will have to keep an eye on that.
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Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs.
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Beyond mid month is still questionable. I personally wouldn't feel good about any solution until we have decent agreement between eps and gefs. Going to have to watch that TPV and what that does too.
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WAG but the 14-16th period looks interesting. Based on the big picture view. With a TPV lobe pulling out and some sort of transient PNA spike.
