Tyler Penland

Next weekend's storm doesn't exist until next Tuesday, as far as I'm concerned. Only enough bandwidth for one of these things at a time LMAO

1050mb isobars just crossed the line on mesoanalysis.

I'm curious what the disconnect is between the NAM and the GFS on precip. They aren't even in the same ballpark on totals. That said, I remember a storm from a few years ago that was forecast to be a significant ice storm and the globals wound up way overdoing precip and we wound up with just scattered/spotty showers.

The Accuweather one still had me getting 8-12" of snow yesterday evening- that hasn't been on the table for days.

This is just... obnoxious. 1 degree standing between the NW mountains and snow at the end of the 3km NAM

Pretty much. Slightly stronger with the wedge once again.

If you check the hourly it is probably rain through midnight, then a temperature freefall to 15 at sunrise behind the front.

I do question the low running into the Apps a bit. Looks weird.

The 12km doesn't even have the current precip across Georgia right at initialization.

0z GFS turns out nearly identical by the end. Start as snow for the northern mountains then a sleet storm and ZR at the end. Eventually switches to cold rain but not before the damage is done by ZR/IP.

Bullseye of over 2" of ZR north of Atlanta this run. Insane.

I mentioned this in the mountain thread but if you go back and look the euro was 2-3mb too weak with the current HP over the northeast at the same range we are from this weekend. It was pretty good from 5-7 days, then showed too weak in the 3-4 day range, then latched on around 72-84 hours or so. It was also a few degrees too warm at the surface in many spots.

At the same range, the Euro was 2-3mb too weak on the current high in the northeast. It didn't latch on to proper placement/strength until about 84 hours out, after being more correct in the 5-7 day range than 3-4. Small changes, but small changes could have big impacts this go around.

WSW from MRX and FFC. I'd expect GSP to follow suit this afternoon.

Make for some freakin' fun sledding, though.

I believe Brad Panovich called that the "glacier solution" which is a perfect descriptor of what 1-2" snow, 3-5" sleet and a half inch of ice would create.

They need to just do away with the lower resolution version entirely and only keep the 3km out to 60hr. I've never seen the use in the lower resolution version myself.

To be fair, the long range NAM is usually pretty strange.

Holy cow. For posterity if nothing else. 18z GFS.

Half inch at the house but barely a dusting coming through Boone. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Absolutely dumped there for a bit but slowing down a bit now. Can't really hear any wind overhead which is weird. Temp only down to 31 but I'm sure that'll fall off soon.

Frontal passage tomorrow looks fun, at least.

It missed the upslope a bit, but it's been rock solid on upper level features the last 5 days with barely any change. I don't know how much you can really dock it for missing convective snow showers bringing minor accumulations- it's a global model. If it is handling the upper levels better, which it did just fine this go around, I don't foresee anything significant unfortunately. The GFS was remarkably off from the Euro until the 84-90 hour mark for this system and the Euro handled the 500mb pattern much, much better overall. We'll see and I certainly hope the GFS has found its nut for the season, but I'm skeptical.

Wound up with an inch on the nose here from the convective showers this afternoon. Luckily not much sun to melt it in between downpours.

Coming down pretty solid here right now picked up a nice coating in the last 30 minutes.