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Tyler Penland

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Everything posted by Tyler Penland

  1. Tyler Penland
    Still 21, now with flurries.
  2. Tyler Penland
    Certainly a dynamic system. Latest D2 brings the marginal risk for severe nearly to Atlanta.
  3. Tyler Penland
    Down to 21 here in Blowing Rock. HRRR showed it warming through the afternoon-don't see that happening. Still well in the teens at elevation as well. Very deep wedge.
  4. Tyler Penland
    24 and a nice heavy flurry at the store in Blowing Rock. Got a feeling we won't be here for the full day today. I will say there is absolutely nobody out and about this morning- downtown BR was empty.
  5. Tyler Penland
    27.5/15.1 here at the house. No precip yet. I'd love to believe the NAM with its dry slot later but it has handled this initial onset very, very poorly so far.
  6. Tyler Penland
    HRRR cranks the snow up around 3-4PM tomorrow. Should have at least 5-6 hours of snow in the northern mountains with that finger of precip.
  7. Tyler Penland
    Yeah if its like this one it'll happen middle of the following week. I'm just bummed because I was supposed to go see Spamalot in Charlotte on Sunday and now it's been canceled/rescheduled to next Tuesday which ain't happening. :/
  8. Tyler Penland
    Next weekend's storm doesn't exist until next Tuesday, as far as I'm concerned. Only enough bandwidth for one of these things at a time LMAO
  9. Tyler Penland
    1050mb isobars just crossed the line on mesoanalysis.
  10. Tyler Penland
    I'm curious what the disconnect is between the NAM and the GFS on precip. They aren't even in the same ballpark on totals. That said, I remember a storm from a few years ago that was forecast to be a significant ice storm and the globals wound up way overdoing precip and we wound up with just scattered/spotty showers.
  11. Tyler Penland
    The Accuweather one still had me getting 8-12" of snow yesterday evening- that hasn't been on the table for days.
  12. Tyler Penland
    This is just... obnoxious. 1 degree standing between the NW mountains and snow at the end of the 3km NAM
  13. Tyler Penland
    Pretty much. Slightly stronger with the wedge once again.
  14. Tyler Penland
    If you check the hourly it is probably rain through midnight, then a temperature freefall to 15 at sunrise behind the front.
  15. Tyler Penland
    I do question the low running into the Apps a bit. Looks weird.
  16. Tyler Penland
    The 12km doesn't even have the current precip across Georgia right at initialization.
  17. Tyler Penland
    0z GFS turns out nearly identical by the end. Start as snow for the northern mountains then a sleet storm and ZR at the end. Eventually switches to cold rain but not before the damage is done by ZR/IP.
  18. Tyler Penland
    Bullseye of over 2" of ZR north of Atlanta this run. Insane.
  19. Tyler Penland
    I mentioned this in the mountain thread but if you go back and look the euro was 2-3mb too weak with the current HP over the northeast at the same range we are from this weekend. It was pretty good from 5-7 days, then showed too weak in the 3-4 day range, then latched on around 72-84 hours or so. It was also a few degrees too warm at the surface in many spots.
  20. Tyler Penland
    At the same range, the Euro was 2-3mb too weak on the current high in the northeast. It didn't latch on to proper placement/strength until about 84 hours out, after being more correct in the 5-7 day range than 3-4. Small changes, but small changes could have big impacts this go around.
  21. Tyler Penland
    WSW from MRX and FFC. I'd expect GSP to follow suit this afternoon.
  22. Tyler Penland
    Make for some freakin' fun sledding, though.
  23. Tyler Penland
    I believe Brad Panovich called that the "glacier solution" which is a perfect descriptor of what 1-2" snow, 3-5" sleet and a half inch of ice would create.
  24. Tyler Penland
    They need to just do away with the lower resolution version entirely and only keep the 3km out to 60hr. I've never seen the use in the lower resolution version myself.
  25. Tyler Penland
    To be fair, the long range NAM is usually pretty strange.
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