Tyler Penland

0z is again significant with widespread 4-8+" along the escarpment. Perfect firehose set-up. HRRR continues to have very gusty winds into Sunday evening with the remnant center running right through Tennessee. Max gusts come mid-afternoon Saturday with 40-50 m.p.h. at elevation. And I will add: just because it isn't Helene, an extreme case, doesn't mean it can't cause significant issues.

18z HRRR is concerning. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Based on their graphics out right now I don't foresee them issuing a Flood Watch. Hope that doesn't come back to bite them. Looking more likely that Isaias won't have time to weaken significantly before landfall and the continued east-of-track motion is aligning it more with the shear vs running into it. When the mid-level winds run into the mountains its going to be a fun time.

BTW, has anybody checked on GSP? They have yet to issue a single watch or advisory for this. Getting on my nerves having counties in my area of Georgia under a Flood/High Wind Watch right next door under FFC but nothing at all from GSP.

Also seeing it run east of the forecast track a bit. Destin landfall seems likely at this point. HRRR drops the hammer with rain on the escarpment tomorrow night.

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.

I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.

I've been looking for a late season analog that jumped NNW/NW after landfall and I haven't been able to find one. I think we see a slight eastward adjustment today to account for the trough coming in.

Popping towers but definitely looks like its ingested some dry air over the past couple hours.

This morning's recon was having some data issues, wonder if they just missed it or the data was bad. If not Isaias we're about to see some big wind increases as winds catch up to that pressure drop.

Recon seems to be finding a broad center and 1002mb. 43kt FL. Looks prettier on satellite than it its strength would imply- still wouldn't be surprised to see it take off today.

HWRF slams the escarpment on rainfall. A further east track sets up nearly perfect enhanced southeast flow. It bumps PWATs up to nearly 2" with 30-40kt southeast winds at 925mb.

We had our first 30s of the season at 39. Was 38 down on the river below me and 45 a few hundred yards up the hill. Wild how big a swing you can get with radiational cooling in the valleys this time of year.

Yeah the feast or famine rain over the summer did not help. A lot of what has changed around Grandfather has quickly gone dull and falling off fast. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Not that the GFS is terrible. This will probably take out what leaves have changed at higher elevations, not that they are particularly vibrant this year.