dan11295

Many states are not reporting for Thanksgiving. Even some that are probably will have limited county level data.The combination of closed testing sites, closed labs, etc. will cause numbers to be artificially lower for 4-5 days at least (See Labor Day). With testing capacity so strained right now I would think the effects on numbers would be even worse.

Would make sense if most of that data is from yesterday. It will become more apparent in the coming days. Multiple states aren't going to report today (I know Mass. isn't).

I see 5 states with hospitalization declines in the past week: ND, WI, MO, NE, IA. None of those states have enacted any restrictions of substance.

Wisconsin and Michigan both came it with much lower numbers at least.

Ohio was not impacted as much as nearby states (IL/MI/PA) in the spring, probably due to Cleveland not being as much of a travel hub as Detroit and Chicago, and the PA cases were mostly in the eastern part of the state. They never had more than 1100 hospitalized in spring or summer. They have 4500 now and rising.

Yea a short term evaluation of potential weather impacts on case trajectory will be difficult with Thanksgiving tomorrow. Cases from gatherings wont show until 2nd week of December,

Illinois came in with over 11,000 today, you wonder if the weather turning colder again ~2 weeks ago was a factor.

Unfortunately I think weekday deaths will be 2000+ for the next few weeks going forward.

Both events are/were outdoors and generally involve brief periods of contact. A little bit different then sitting down for 45 minutes at a restaurant or a 3-4 hour indoor social gathering. Getting exposed to very small number of viral particles is not generally believed to cause an infection. Outdoor ventilation is generally very effective at diluting viral concentrations.

Just so much going on with Thanksgiving this week that has potential to aggravate the situation: College kids coming home. Lots of travel. Significant among of large multi-family gatherings are still going to occur, which will often include older relatives. Also don't know how well stores will enforce capacity limits etc. for holiday shopping.

Didn't think it would be, but California....not good.

Basically all of the mid-upper plains and MN, WI, IL, MI are showing signs of a short term decline in case load now, though hospitalizations is still rising a bit in IL, MI & MN. Most states outside of that group are still showing increases. May get a bit of decline followed by an undulating plateau with case numbers with numbers impacted by things like states limiting transmission vectors and events like Thanksgiving. Partial herd immunity will be becoming a factor in some states as well

Ohio was dumping their backlogged data most likely. Trends in Ohio are still not good. 4350 hospitalized now (almost +200 today)

Both Minnesota and Illinois had good drops in case numbers from last Monday. Continues to imply numbers have peaked in the region. But other regions are still increasing.

Some of the data this week (I know The holiday will mess up the reporting some) might tell us if the abnormal warm spell was a factor in reducing transmission. Am looking at states like Iowa in particular, where their 7-day average dropped starting November 16 with no meaningful restrictions put in place to affect numbers. That is about 13 days after the warm up started, which is about the time lag for infection>symptoms>tested>results. If their numbers stabilize or rise this week along with some other states in the area, it would be strong evidence of that. If they continue to fall then other factors are at work.

Yes I know that. Put at least there are some encouraging signs in the numbers. going forward.

Even when the missing state reports are added tomorrow, today will be about the same as last Sunday. Nationally positivity rates have stabilized and have begun to fall. Trends are suggesting a peak is occurring in the numbers overall, and hospitalizations should peak early next week.. Peak is occurring a bit quicker than I expected, tbh. Obviously, stuff like Thanksgiving gatherings could at least temporarily stop any declines. Some states will still be rising in cases, and the next few weeks will have some ugly numbers. But I think there is a good chance overall numbers are on the decline as we go through December through a combination of partial herd immunity is some hard hit upper Midwest states and more aggressive restrictions in some others. Future spike could also flare up during the winter depending on other events like Christmas, etc.

The per capita numbers in the Dakotas are so bad. Both now in top 10 per capita deaths, only behind the the northeast and LA/MS.The pure numbers are low so people tend to gloss over them sometimes.

Some rough math here, with some assumptions about how many cases are being missed now: Back at April peak we were catching ~25% of cases we are now. We have good comparison data now on this by comparing cases vs hospitalizations in states like PA/MI/NJ. Takes 4x as many cases now to get same number of hospitalizations. Means with with today's testing you would have had 40k cases a day in NY! It is assumed we are currently catching 25% of actual transmission now. and have been since about July. If you average out case load between April and early July (~3 Million cases were confirmed in this time period). you went from 16x to 4x ratio of real infections vs tested for mean of 10x. So say (3Mx10 = 30 M real infections). From July until 16 days ago (to account for death report lag) you had 7Mx4=28M real infections. 250k/58M =~0.43% IFR. Obvious some error bars but would imply close to 800k deaths without a vaccine with a slow burn to herd immunity. (330M*0.6*0.004) ~800k. If we are lucky the vaccine will prevent maybe 450k of those.

Would think this would happen in the Dakotas very soon. 9.5% of ND has tested positive Would imply 40%+ in state exposed.

Today may actually be lower than last Sunday. Nationwide plateau may be being reached.

Hospitalized actually -100 today in IL (some of that may be weekend reporting) but looks like short term the spike has at least stabilized or even dropping a bit in the upper Midwest in general. Wisconsin just came in with a much lower number (3500 cases). Tests were much lower but positivity is really coming down too. That is interesting because they have done very little mitigation there. Other areas of the country are still rising so it more than cancels the slight declines we are seeing here though. Numbers may only be up by ~10k nationally from last Sunday though so I think cases plateau nationally by next week (before any Thanksgiving spike would show up).

I know the potential benefits of the warmer weather a couple weeks ago in reducing transmission rates was discussed. Its certainly hasn't helped PA very much. They had 6500 cases today, with no Philly,

That is the tricky part. You have to identify the at risk positives early in the infection cycle to get them the treatment. This is easy for Trump, not as easy for someone in a rural area who has to wait 5 days to get test results back after getting symptoms. So you need a distribution system in place as well as letting those who are at risk (older/comordibities) know that this treatment is available and to get it early. This is a departure from the current message which is to just isolate unless you feel like you need to go to the hospital. You wait to that point its too late for the treatment. You also need to get your tests back in a timely manner. The earlier the better. Hopefully the prelim data on this is accurate and it can reduce the burden on hospital system and hopefully mortality rates (haven't seen data on mortality benefit yet) until we can get vaccinations ramped up.

Cases in the upper Midwest look to be plateauing with a slight drop in positivity. Hopefully its a sign the case numbers will start to come down a bit at least in the short term. Note that Thanksgiving will probably mess with the data reporting this week. As far as a spike from Thanksgiving, its almost certain. Even though I certainly won't be, you have many people who will still be engaging in eating a meal probably inside with extended family they don't normally have interactions with. They think that just because they feel fine or got a test a week ago, they are not putting anyone at risk (if they are worried about it at all, which many aren't). Its still a guess on how bad its going to be.