nzucker

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently.

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

And the contrails...don't forget the contrails.

I think they should both go. Guys, this thread is about Arctic Sea Ice, not about the current cold snap in the Northeast U.S., or the Russian plot to displace cold from Siberia and move it to North America, or anything else. Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

Actually plenty of areas of the Dakotas average less snow than parts of the NYC metro. Exceptions being the higher elevations in the western parts of the state like the Badlands, the Black Hills, Theodore Roosevelt Natl Park.

Nope, there wasn't much snowcover. The Feb 11-12 storm disappeared in a few days, and January and March both torched. There was a small period in mid-December with snow on the ground but nothing noteworthy.

Yes, this could be another good fall for Eurasian snow cover with a large ridge over the Kara/Barents area as well as a ridge over most of North America. This pushes all the cold into Russia/Mongolia/China as the PV sets up there early on.

It looks blocked by medium concentration ice in the image above. Is that refreezing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by 9/9?

Looks as if the Northwest Passage never opened? A relatively weak melt season in terms of area and extent, but volume continues to show limited recovery.

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat. And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

I've been tempted to pull the bedroom A/C several times..I don't think I've turned it on once since August 22nd, the day that hit 89F in Central Park. NYC has only reached 80F twice this September, and several days have topped out in the 60s and low 70s...It's been annoying to lose the cool breeze the window generates by having the A/C unit blocking the vast majority of the window. I can open the top a crack, but it doesn't provide nearly the ventilation that a full window would. I may need the A/C one last time this week, which is why I kept it in...Wednesday and Thursday look fairly warm at 82/67, though not that much above normal for mid-September. Once the next trough arrives, it's out. It looks like the next trough is progged to approach the area around 9/20 with the arrival of Juan, and that is climatologically around the point that most people switch from cooling to heating anyway. Sure, there may be one or two warm days in October, but those are usually brief and are generally accompanied by low humidity, so there isn't much point in keeping A/C in. Uninstall awaits the coming of the weekend trough.

I may have even been too high with 1-2 more 90s for NYC and 3-4 more for EWR...looks like we were done after the widespread 90F readings on Aug 1st. We may see a slightly warmer pattern in the second half of September, or at least the next week, but it doesn't look extreme enough with declining climo to reach 90F again in NYC. It looks as though 12 90-degree days will be the number for Summer 2017. Barring any extreme changes in the forecast or the first October 90F since 1944, time to put this thread away for winter hibernation. The fat lady has sung...saying she will see us in April.

I don't think your forecast will verify for EWR or NYC. You need 4 more at NYC (16 have 12) and 6 more at EWR (25 have 19). I think the reality is 1-2 more at NYC and 2-3 for EWR. You will be very close but probably on the high side unless September is huge heat. 2015 was the warmest September ever and had 6 days of 90F. Current pattern keeps Canadian high pressure over the area into September, looks like until at least 9/5. With 9/15 basically the cut off for more than an isolated 90F every 10 years, time is running out fast. You could feel it in the air yesterday. Still warm but sun is losing its punch. Airmass is transitioning to low humidity deep blue skies.

Well Jeanne Clement in France lived until 122...so you just would have to be 11 years older than the oldest person ever. I would be 91 in 2079. Hopefully I make it then fail soon after.

It's impressive to see -10C 850s reaching the Siberian coast with sub-freezing 850s into Scandinavia in mid-August. The effect of the storm may be more detrimental as it drifts towards Eurasia and strengthens..it's only like 1000mb over the CAB now.

I think this storm is less windy than the 2012 event...pressures are a little bit more diffuse, as there is not nearly as much gradient. Also, 850s are somewhat colder with this storm. There is a large area of -10C 850s and a high concentration ice pack, so there isn't the tearing apart effect that 2012 had on broken up, mushy ice. Instead, the cold is refreezing the periphery and the ice may spread out a bit.

I think 3-4 more 90F days for NYC is very reasonable. It will depend on how far north the ridge builds after 8/18. Definitely could be a strong trough in the west, but it looks shortlived and the warmest readings look to be to our north. It's getting late to rack up 90s especially with the 7-day forecast not showing any. It's 8/17 at that point, losing daylight fast.

October 2007 was one of the warmest on record. I was in VT, and we were like +6 for the month. Easier to hit 90F late in the season at JFK than early. Not much seabreeze in early October.

2016: 3 90F in September 2015: 6 90F in September 2014: 2 90F in September 2013: 1 90F in September All before 9/15...gets really hard the second half of the month when average highs are dipping into the lower 70s.

Certainly can't but the 90F window historically seems to close in the 9/15-20 window. Even the famed Sept 1953 heat wave was the opening days of the month. NYC hasn't seen a 90F October reading since the 1940s.

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school. Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

There are windy conditions as the low bottoms out near 980mb but also a cold core of -10C 850s near the NE Beaufort as well as uniformly below freezing 850s across the Arctic to balance it out. The ECM/GFS take the deep vortex out towards August 15th, becomes difficult to see huge losses as we approach the second half of August. A lock now that area and extent finish above 2007 and 2012, probably 2011 as well.

Doesn't the weather look favorable with a vortex near Alaska/Beaufort?

The GFS stopped showing the -40C contour. They used to show it. You now just see a big area of -30C on the MSLP/QPF/850 map.

The coronal hole thing probably explains the blip, but it's superimposed on a long-term decline in Arctic sea ice that allows for such abnormally poor periods in ice extent. Re: the temp anomaly map, that's an extreme example of the -AO warm arctic, cold continents pattern. +24C anomalies in the Arctic while Siberia, Southwest Asia, and Western North America see near record cold. It's actually fairly encouraging to see such large areas of cold anomalies, which suggest Winter 16-17 in the Northern Hemisphere will be MUCH COLDER than Winter 15-16 was in the Super El Nino, in which almost nowhere finished below average.