Jackstraw

On 1/21/2021 at 7:05 PM, Hoosier said:

Hopefully areas farther south in the sub have some opportunities.  Can't sugarcoat it though, it's a dangerous pattern.

Nah, we're good  

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Can always count on Alek for a succinct analysis of the mid-range outlook.

I'd say zzzzz too except I don't trust any of these models more than a day maybe 2 out the way they've been performing.  It could snow pigeon eggs Wed. night for all they know  

45 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

WHAT THE $%÷@$!?!?

I was not expecting to wake up to everything buried. I got roughly 5" here which is more than what I've gotten in the past two blizzard warnings and last winter storm warning combined . Finally broke the curse of Halloween 2019.

The heavy snow on top of the already weighted down trees from the previous ice/concrete snow has made the scenes outside UNREAL. I've never seen anything like it. 

Congrats, I know you guys whiteknuckle winter just about as much as we do over hear lol.

2 hours ago, Snownado said:

I've never seen a place get so much cold and so little snow as Central Indiana. Lots of cloudy, cold days but not much snow.

Welcome to the I70 psyche ward.  I say it every year.  Tracking winter systems through here will make ya nuts lol.  KIND is not exactly a snow magnet, averaging around 25 inches a year (That's 2in less than the national average).  You spread that out over 16-20 weeks and doesn't take to many of these pecker gnat systems to fill that up.   Heck I'm supposed to average about 30" 50 miles to the north, I've already got 8 and 5 of that was back in Nov.  And if it does lay down a blanket don't count on it sticking around long until we get into late January and February'  Both of those months are also notorious for subzero temps, howling winds and bare cornfields around here .  We've also been severely lacking in clippers lately.  I moved here 10 years ago and half my snow totals were a couple strong clipper trains.

Climo around here is a fickle lady in the winter.  There has been a bit of a snow drought of late I will admit. I don't think I've reached average snowfall in 5 years.  We just happen to be in a bittersweet spot for winter storm tracks where a 20 mile shift in the track can mean the difference in cold rain or 8" of snow. 

The rubberband is gonna snap at some point and will get 12 incher fly through here, we're definitely due.  Our best chances for snow are latter half of January into March anyway so our climo is just revving up.  I think we;ve got a better chance coming up than we have the past few winters anyway.  (insert glass half full)

KIND NWS Climo

Central Indiana, the aliens have arrived....

Started rip city here about 15 min ago... for 5 min.  Have half dollar raindrops mixing in now.  Also looks like I'm gonna get dry slotted by an 8th grade punk system.  Gonna lay my watermelon in some Easter hay and watch the rest of the new Zappa doc. (Highly recommended btw)  Let the Shakespearean Tragedy continue .

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like a snooze fest again through mid month.  Looks like Jan may be like many of the past months where there's jack squat for weeks, but then a major event comes in at some point and gives a brief period of excitement.  Clippers can be pretty boring, but I'd take a train of them just so we don't have to go through these long stretches of benign weather in the heart of the winter tracking season.

What's a clipper 

Report from Monticello IL of 8in, 6 from Argenta and Mt. Zion all within the last hour.  Friend 20 miles N of me said it started ripping about 15 min ago..  As a bitching note, all these websites moving to graphical phone friendly designs for their sites suck.

Baby Kanuk nailed the snow around Champaign at 00Z if it comes to fruition.  Have some low/mid level dry air issues in IN but as the UL moves ENE should ring those out in the next hour..  Possible defo zone setting up from around Danville Il. up through Marion IN.  -SN here, probably reach my 2in forecast for temporary relief from mudpocalypse.  Points just to my N, especially IWX, are still in the game for an over performer.

IWX 7pm update

.Update...
Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

Trends in near term guidance along with upstream sat/radar depiction
of vigorous sw disturbance and attendant baroclinic leaf lifting out
of nrn AR and expansion of radar returns through cntrl TN/wrn KY
along leading edge of return moisture plume. This portents a brief
period of mod-hvy snow likely to develop after midnight. Some nw
displacement of H7 dilatation axis also noted in model guidance and
suspect a robust deformation response aloft will occur overhead for
a time late tonight. Thus have backed prior gridded stripe of higher
qpf a bit nwwd esp under the guise of related H7 pivot point shaping
up further nw from prior. Otherwise with a period of low static
stability aloft timed with wwd arching but brief trowal, some banded
enhancement likely which may yield some over performance in snow
amounts northeast. Regardless rapid newd progression of upper sys
lends a risk of going any higher with top end snow probs even though
they may verify correct in some locations far northeast. Otherwise
primarily a snow event with drizzle persisting this evening before
ice nucleation takes over with arrival of upstream mid level
moisture slug.

8 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

I’m glad I took the drive from Detroit to Lansing. Rates were incredible and the snowflakes were huge. I96 was just a crapshoot. Completely snow covered and icy...and visibility was a few hundred feet at times in the band. Had to take video of the event because it was just too good. 

Nice, thanx.  Around 20 seconds in looks like a scene from Ice Road Truckers lol 

8 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

 

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not to burst your bubble, but toss the NAM.

 

Too far NE with event 1 and this current 2nd event, and already a far SE outlier for that 3rd event.

 

 

.

Can't burst my bubble, I live in north central IN climo hell lol.  HRRR gives me a little love too with wave 3. It'll all turn to mud anyway, I'll take the eye candy if I can get it 

Got a surprise 1.5 SN with wave 1, just enough early morning ice out of wave 2 to turn my dogs onto Nazi Punks F&$k Off, I'll gladly take this out of wave 3 and cash out until the 15th

HRRR been trimming the southern extent of ice in Indiana but cranking it in northern IN and far southern MI and NW OH over the last 6 hours....

.

Just now, KokomoWX said:

Very light icing in Kokomo.  I am seeing power flickers.  Sigh.  

Weird, I'm melting off the roof here.  Windshield is water drops.  Had some ice on the porch a few hours ago but it's melted.  I'm up to 32.5 now.  Gone up a degree an hour since 4am.

As I typed that the surface freeze line moved N of Indy.  I'll be above 0C by 9am.  Looks like if anyone is going to get ice it'll be NW IL/ SE IA.  Most of MO at or above 0C now except for far NW.  I really am surprised a 1006 low is lifting this much warmth this aggressively.  I was thinking noon to 2pm to hit 0C from an overnight low of -5C.   Not complaining, only thing I hate more than ice is mud.  My temps up to 31F now.  Guess I'll get the greater of 2 evils lol.

24 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

For my Indiana guys, mike Ryan just posted this in NWSChat:

Happy New Year everyone! Freezing rain is the story this morning, and the band east-west through the Indy metro is producing the steadiest rates so far this morning. As this band moves north over the next 30 minutes, precipitation coverage looks to be a bit more scattered. Also of note, the 32 degreee line appears to be following a county or so south of the location of the band. Bloomington has gone above freezing in the last hour and Terre Haute appear poised to do likewise within the next hour. Still think the Indy metro pulls above freezing from south to north in the 830-10 am timeframe. Road temps are in the 30-32 range over north central Indiana, 31-33 in the Indy metro and above freezing south of I-70. Finally, a trend we've noticed all night back into Missouri is that ice accrual seems to be roughly half to two thirds of the precipitation totals. That has held here...BMG had 0.11 inches precip and 0.06 ice accrual. in the last hour.

Was watching this earlier.  Surface freezing is just south of I70 right now.  According to meso analysis 925 freeze line is up to Ft. Wayne and 850's are already half way through MI.  Had some light ZR a little while ago, maybe some ZR drizzle now with a surface temp of 30 and climbing already.  WAA is going to blow through most of IN if this keeps up.  Don't think we have much to worry about except lots of cold ass rain.  I would venture to say even points to the far NW may come out better.  Looks like as always the WAA overperforms the models.  Kinda surprised.  I would think as this thing shears out the pump would weaken.  Mediocre Pacific heat pumped by that extra tropical storm NE of HI last week along with untouched GOM torch water and damn near 0 arctic air mass leads to the GFS solution Saturday for us.  A freakin mess lol.

How the hell can a warm blooded hairy ass animal go outside for 30 min and come back in looking like a frozen freak show?  I have a new ZR gauge. 

Just let the dogs in.  No precip 30 min ago when I let them out.  They look like Billy Idol twins now, freakin frozen Godzilla spikes on their backs lol.

This is a bit surprising, or not lol. Freezing level is really really shallow already, maybe 2k feet.  Depth of the warmth is under 700 mb right now.  Models had it deeper yesterday.....

06Z HRRR sounding in my area around 10am Fri.  Some deep saturation and pretty strong forcing.  That's a deep ass warm tongue if I've ever seen one.  Similar soundings a couple hours either side.  Will be interesting if it pans out....

Ripped a Gomer surprise 1.5" earlier.  Slick as a Witches T$%t out.

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Multiple sites in northern IL are reporting freezing rain with temps above freezing.

I have noticed that before.  Not sure why it happens.  I wonder if it's more common when dews are a few degrees below freezing, which is the case right now.

That would make sense.  Not sure how cold for how long they were up there but hard surface temps would lag behind air temp increases also, especially if air temps were jumping up quickly.  We had some decent ice here about 3 years ago with the air temp around 27 over the dark hours rising to 35 by early morning when the precip hit.  Had a nice glaze over everything by noon with a temp, and the sun, of around 35-36 before it crashed.  It was weird because the glaze all thawed at once on a sunny afternoon and just started falling off the trees all at once.

Be interesting to see where the confluence zone sets up between the 2 waves.  Couple models were pinstriping some decent snow just north of it yesterday morning.  My temps have been actually dropping as opposed to rising as forecasted.  Been at 32 most of the day now down to 29 and 0 precip thus far. Precip shield is well N/NW still.  Hey man, I can dream 

21 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Final total of 9.2" taken from average of snow boards around the yard. Well forecast and very respectable event. Quite a bit of FZDZ out there currently and it's quite nasty. Should end up with solid glaze by morning. Temp 30.

Honestly the first event I can remember where I'm left thinking ... Damn did the canadian do a good job.

 

I was surprised how well it did (at least against itself) with the tropics this year.  It was pretty tight on the H5 anomalies over the summer which could've made it look good tropic wise especially with GOM tracks.  To be honest,  this past summer the H5 setup resembled what's going on now.