Jackstraw

Cudos to those that got the hammer.  Those that got the sink,  models seem to be giving you a second chance SE bump with wave 2.  Looks like there will even be a moisture starved wave 3 that could toss those of us in the orphanage an inch here and there maybe Sunday.  NYD is forecast to be the warmest at KIND since 2000, ROCK!  There's plenty of consistency over the next 10 days from the models... for absolutely nothing.  WTF do they know! lol 

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

My snow total is 8.5".  The 12" report just south of me sure seems like a lot.

This was the most satisfying snowstorm in years.

Nice and most deserving of late.  Looks like you're gonna get to keep it for at least a week too. 

As the mania of the front end thump wanes to the reality of the 850 devil, it can be very depressing so feel free to message me, it's the story of my winters lately here in the hinterlands and I have a way to deal with it 

45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Feels like I'm in LAF on 2/1/11.  Raging sleet shower right now hammering the east windows.

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea models did depict dry slot well. It just seems like this moved out so fast. Maybe I'm wrong. Cutious to see what model did best so we know which one to watch closer for 2nd storm. 

The models recently are like watching NeckCar at Talladega.  Whomever is leading, the next lap they're liable to be 20th the following lap.  But there's gonna be 2 or 3 big ones they catch, just a matter of where east of the Mississippi it happens 

8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Mostly freezing rain with a few pingers now here.  Went out and removed the snow before it became encased in a crusty layer.  Picked up 4.5" snow.

Good job, now put it back when it's over and you can act like the nasties never happened! 

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The convective nature of the snow in Iowa was very impressive. Tons of lightning strikes showing up near and north of the transition line. You can see gravity waves on reflectivity. Pretty awesome. 

Saw that on Scope also (seeing as how it's the only decent radar left!).  Meso was showing some decent 6-6.5 lapse rates moving up ahead of the mixing line.  Don't think I've ever seen gravity wave depictions on radar in a winter storm.

I'm down near the end of that proboscis band and my sounding is almost as good... except it'll last 5 minutes lol....

Pretty rippin' sounding in Chicago Tues. evening...

The 00Z GFS is just a big fat icey, sleety, rainy kiss my ass kitchen sink mess.  Just what I'm used to the past few years 

Nice LR discussion from Ryan at KIND.....

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Dec 27 2020

The second part of the storm system set to impact the region the
second half of the week remains the primary focus for the extended
and unfortunately at this stage of the game...is offering more
questions than answers on specific impacts for central Indiana on
New Years Eve and New Years Day.

A strong ridge across the eastern half of the country will be slowly
but steadily flattened by a strong upper low that will pinwheel out
of northern Mexico and across Texas Wednesday night and Thursday
before lifting north into the Great Lakes by late Friday. There has
been a noted westward shift in the model suite over the last 24 to
36 hours with respect to the upper low track due to more energy
aloft carving out the massive trough over the central portion of the
country and a strengthening of the upper ridge off the Florida
coast. The upper low takes on a negative tilt which pulls it further
west as well.

That being said...the model suite is all over the place with its
handling of the secondary surface wave set to develop along the
frontal boundary and lift northeast towards the Ohio Valley by late
Thursday. While there has been a westward shift at the surface as
well...the main operational models with the exception of the GGEM
are further west than the ensemble means. It should be noted that a
surface wave track due north or slightly east of north off the
Louisiana coast is a bit of a climatologically unfavorable track for
a surface wave. Just another point to toss into the jumble of
thoughts this afternoon. A general blend at this point is preferred
until better model agreement can develop.

So...what can we take away at this point 4-5 days out? Confidence is
high in a higher impact storm moving through the Ohio Valley and
central Indiana for New Years Eve and New Years Day. But that is
about all that can be said right now. The lack of model agreement
and fluidity of the entire suite lends no confidence into the
details of the forecast and impacts...namely precip type duration
and intensity. The storm will have access to a rich plume of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will ensure modest precip
amounts from Wednesday night into Friday. Expect rain to continue as
the precip type to start Wednesday night with the potential for some
wintry mischief on the northern flank of the precip shield late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low level thermals become
marginal. There is likely to be a lull in precip coverage on
Thursday before moisture returns with the approach of the second
surface low late Thursday into Friday. Storm track will become
critical at this point in determining precip type but the potential
for at least some snow and/or ice accums is a possibility that needs
to be considered. A track that ends up east would bring a greater
risk for either snow or ice but even should the track of the low
remain further west...an easterly flow in the low levels Thursday
night into Friday morning as the low approaches could present some
problems over the forecast area with an increased potential for an
icy mess in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet.

Expect at least another 36-48 hours before we can gain more clarity
on the details with this storm system and the likely impacts locally
here in central Indiana. The primary area of upper energy will come
onshore over California on Monday with better sampling of the
feature coming thereafter. At this point...prepare for a higher
impact winter storm over the Ohio Valley from the second half of
Wednesday into New Years Day with locally heavy rainfall...a wintry
mix or perhaps some accumulations of snow and/or ice all within the
range of possibilities. Dry and chilly weather will follow the
departure of this system for next weekend.

Final call, frozen mud stalagmites and some dandruff falling  .  I wasn't touching this one with a 10 ft North Pole  lol.  

Woke up to a nice fluffy 4.  Finally looks like winter out 

Who am I foolin lol.  Might not see snow till next month.  Hazard of my climo.  That FG band was pretty broken up when it was S/SW of Indy.  Filled in nicely as it moved NNE.  If we can keep some decent UL forcing going for the next 6 hours or so could end up being the first healthy grass topper around here.  Definitely some good snow globe stuff out right now.  IWX might wake up to a surprise  

Nightly gathering of dogs and prostate relief lol.  Nice big flakes at a good clip.  .5" in like 15 min.  Too tired or I'd stay up and enjoy it 

Think I'm gonna go a last minute 2.  Returns were weakening but are showing some decent FG recovery, although light.  Shall see, sometimes these late night systems can surprise.  Still be waiting on my Xmas miracle lol.

Gotta extra big stocking hanging that'll take a 30lb bag of Kingsford cause I'm sure by just saying "Lock It In" Santa is gonna fill it up for me believing in fantasy  

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody wants to make a thread for this bad boy?

We'll see how this pans out but certainly looking like a decent Omega block out west.  That should keep any moisture running up the eastern seaboard for the next 10 days at least keeping us zzz to a flurry or drizzle.  That's fine with me.  I'm ready to set the rest of Dec. up for the last week.  I think 2020 owes the entire sub a 3-6 blanket the last week of the year.  

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Put your money on the Euro and save yourself some heartache.

If that run pans out grab some popcorn and watch the NE/NYC forums eat their own lmao.  

Hard to measure here, had some melting here and there plus graupel, really fine flakes and the pleasant sound of pingers at 5am today lol.  1.5 or so mixed bag of frozen, 90% from that lake streamer. Missed double that by 25 miles.  Got .5 ice cold rain Sun>Mon morning.      

HiRes models not looking good for NW OH NE IN.  They were showing an enhanced defo band lasting through the night but a weaker surface low seems to be escaping faster.  At least y'all got "measurable" snow.  My LES tickler has about petered out.   Got an inch once temps dropped this evening.  Combination of grapul and micro flakes due to warm 850's from the NW?? lol

What I've really noticed missing in winters of late are clippers.  6-7 years ago could at least guarantee a couple 3 or 4 day clipper trains.  Here in the hinterlands those were money for us.  I don't think I've seen a real clipper in 3 years.

For what it's worth the 00Z HRRR came in stronger and a bit more west longer with the surface low than most other guidance.  Gave OH,  Eastern IN, KY and TN  a lot more love at 10:1 than previous runs.  It still looks skittish due to warm boundary temps but it was a pretty decent tick up.  Keeps the surface low under 990 and parks it in western PA and NY through the end of the run.  Could be even better news for the N OH folks in the snow belt.  Btw, it also hammers parts of the NC/TN mountains with spots up to 20 inches.

16 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

 

I like the old one better. 

Pretty bad when our only hope is LES 100 miles from the lake lol