LP08
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Everything posted by LP08
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Here is the 18z GEFS for Friday. Op group think but a good consensus for at least a light event with no stickage problems. Edit: Ugh 96 is on the bottom and 102 is on top. Messed that up but you get the picture.
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I think I agree for the most part. Ease up the confluence over New England and Vorts respond allowing the NS to dig and try and interact down south. ICON very made small changes out front and almost popped a coastal. I’m not saying I expect it but I haven’t written off something more substantial.
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I was just going to post how close it got with just slightly better heights out front for the southern low.
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The EPS generally agrees with a light event for Friday. There are a few that are heavier but didn’t see any with any true gulf connection. At least there are no temp problems with this one (so far!)
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Agreed. My post was in jest to PSU. The thing that bugs me the most is that when this first came up on the radar, temps were never really issue but the real cold push now isn't until Wednesday. I fully expect down near me to have 34 and "snow" with a dusting-1" at this point. I hope I'm wrong but we never do well with cold chasing precip as its usually delayed and in this situation even an hour can screw us.
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<blah blah DC to bmore jackpot blah blah> haha
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3k Looks to change DC ~19z tomorrow. 90% of this is snow with temps hovering around 32-34 in the immediate burbs.
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Yeah. Clicking through soundings on the 3k NAM showed around the DC area show the temps never getting below freezing until after precip pulls out. I still think that if someone can get the .25 QPF over a 3 hour window, you can dynamically cool to <32 and accumulate, but I don't think that will be widespread and we will have lots of varying reports and conditions come tomorrow night.
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Not much change in precip and thermals seemed like noise to me. Razor thin here.
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GFS a small hit for the weekend.
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.4 qpf extends to about I 81 and .5 is just SE of the metros
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Looks like a very slight but noticeable shift west with QPF as well
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Gfs another very solid run.
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It’s always hard to see high end solutions and watch them back off as we move in. We should still see some snow and accumulation.
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The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least.
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Gfs nearly identical to 18z
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Hah I know. Just found that specific panel funny.
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This seems fake but unfortunately it’s real for Friday lol.
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ICON is pretty terrible. Mostly dry throughout.
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You know, I hadn’t looked at surface temps. Mid levels seemed ok but always assumed the surface would eventually be ok due to the big bad PV coming down. I still think the Fropa has legs for a fun couple of hours on Tuesday night. I’ve always thought this was a 1-3 type deal so I’m still sticking with that.
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It’s in line with other models qpf wise. I think the upside is like 0.4 qpf and that may be generous. But a burst of .25 in a short window will be fun nonetheless.
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NAM at range but....Nice run
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Well the NAM is quite further off the coast with the Sunday/Monday coastal. Consistent
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Sunday coastal further off the coast compared to 0z. Not much else different through 72.
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Agreed. I’m naturally an optimist and enjoy learning here so I’m not going to deb everything when it looks unfavorable. We get four months of tracking a year so I will keep watching a posting, lol. I guess I should have clarified more that it’s close but better than some of the previous runs.
