LP08

GFS has 33 ish in and around the city at 6z with snow. Looks very similar to the 6z run.

Even the 12k has a pretty decent column, just no precip so the surface isn't at good. As it usually is with most events, if bands persist someone can be surprised with a 1-2 while the majority is white raining.

That is an ugly NAM run at 12 z. What happened to the precip?

Just pretend this is the GEFS and all is well lol

Through 12z with snow still falling

18z Euro

Stay in Charlottesville...they are due!

Yeah, I saw that as well as a better front orientation before checking the surface. Hence why I put "Snow" in quotes. It's more than likely the "precip depiction" maps doing their normal thing showing snow once the front clears.

GFS has "snow" into the cities by 6z Wednesday. Front has a more E-W orientation.

Icon looks to be moving closer to the follow up wave for next week.

Overnight EPS was a little more favorable for the Dec 11/12 follow up wave compared to the OP. The GEFS mostly agrees with the OP that there is potential for a 1-3 after the front clears. EPS Above has a stronger push of the -EPO than 12z, resulting in the TPV stretching and pushing further south into the OH valley. GEFS has the stronger EPO ridge but doesn't stretch the TPV as much, but notice in south TX as a piece is left behind from the cutter that precedes it. I like these tables below because it tries to show clustering. This is the "best look" so far that I have seen from them for the Dec 11/12.

Lol, trouble is I did and still messed it up. Unfortunately with the limited Ukie maps it’s hard to tell if there is much follow up after 144.

I’m a moron.

Here are the precip panels and temp panels from the Ukie. Seems like it still has some work to do.

Here's the EPS. Like you said, have a little more ridging or slow that NS SW down some and its a nice look. Like the +PNA almost in the perfect spot poking up through Idaho.

Was just going to post this. A perfect track Miller A but the High is already off the coast by the time it approaches us. Let's NOT do this, haha.

Basically what we have been seeing. High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low. 0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see. Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

Nice looking setup on the EURO through 168.

Ice storms in the SC foothills are usually good for us....lol

Euro going to tease us again around day 8.

I agree that I was a little underwhelmed by the eps H5. It looks similar to the OP but the TPV bullies out of Canada prior to the supposed window. I don’t think you are a deb at all, I just am an optimist and obviously still learning a bunch. This also jumped out at me. Consistent signal for a precip event but little to no snow on the means (all caveats about ensemble mean snow aside.

Not necessarily textbook but some of the right things are there. Happy Birthday!

Definitely. The ensembles have been hinting at this period for a while now, I remember making a post about it. We usually don't score at the beginning of the pattern though. One thing I have noticed this year compared to last year and this is completely anecdotal, but with regards to 10 days, the Ensembles and OP of the GFS and EURO are pretty similar at H5. I remember last year that we had all those good looks out in time but the OP runs never really showed anything similar.

Damn you guys are fast. Was just saving those images, lol. That's a big storm look at day 10. GFS had the low run up west then jump to the coast once north of us.