weatherwiz

Certainly plausible depending on the timing. But the way the setup looks, I think updrafts will really struggle to become mature. I was looking at a few soundings and the thermal profile is rather wonky. We'll see a line of heavy rain with thunder but cells within the line will be of the pulse variety. Certainly enough shear though, both speed and directionally, that any cell that is able to become mature enough could rotate and produce a tornado. In terms of timing though, I think we end up seeing this slow down a bit (which would increase potential). Front looks to become nearly parallel to the upper flow, an indicator it will slow. Meanwhile, this will increase the potential for flash flooding. This should be the #1 concern.

Awful lapse rates for Sunday but if we can recover after morning stuff there could be a few nasty storms. Dynamics are very strong and the instability would be there should we recover given dews into the 70's. Best forcing is displaced too. Would be looking at some very localized severe potential with potential for a tornado

Working outside and have to move into the Sun. Was too chilly sitting under the overhang with the breeze, especially wearing shorts.

Wish the lapse rates were steeper but the timing has become a bit more favorable in recent runs. Someone going to get porked with rain though given flow alignment.

eh keep these airmasses around and handy. Can't hurt severe weather chances

confirmed TOR yesterday RI intoMA

Saturday should be mainly dry south of the Pike there will be showers/thunder north of the Pike along the edge of the warm front/higher theta-e air. Whenever the timing for the cold front is though, whether it be Saturday night or Sunday, is going to be a deluge out in front of it with PWATS surging > 2''. If bulk of the rain/thunder move through Saturday night, there may be an additional risk for showers/thunder Sunday afternoon with the secondary cold front.

Agreed. At least with timing though there is still some room to improve upon but it at least seems to me a bit of a disconnect between best forcing and instability. Regardless, lapse rate look pretty bad so anything would probably be isolated and pretty localized. I am a bit more worried for FF potential.

Back to shitty lapse rates for Sunday. Lots of questions with that right now, particularly with the timing. Also, looks like the best forcing will be lagging the front a bit and there will be a bit of a disconnect between the greatest shear/forcing and highest instability. Highest instability = south, greatest shear/forcing = north. Anyways, looks like we could remain convectively active moving through the first at least week of July. You just hope we can sneak in a few EMLs in here. It's not a terrible look for EML advection, but one thing I think we're missing is more of a trough at H7 digging into the west.

Within this looks like there was a decently long-tracked supercell across western PA

Also, that has to be the strongest wind gust at BDL since 5/31/98 I would think?

I am still kind of in awe about the BDL wind gust but also very curious. I wonder if that strongest core just happened to go over the station. I didn't do much driving along 75 just because it was super dark and its not well lit. But when I was heading to the highway and went down some roads, I didn't notice any big damage or come across power outages. Might have been a super small, concentrated core. I still can't get over last night though...just the amount of lightning and power flashes.

Snip it of video with the two power flashes just before the winds came. I had to have seen a dozen power flashes tonight

Making the trip back to Springfield. That was epic. Got some video with the power flashes. Will upload to YouTube when I get home. Happy damage all

NE CT has to be getting crushed. Those velocities from BOX seem legit

Insane…the winds were super strong but I would not have guessed that haha. I said to my friend, “I can’t wait to see what BDL got…at least 40 mph”. Thought higher but didn’t want to sound like a weenie. it was crazy…the whole sky in front of us lit up green and then a wall of wind and rain came

67 knots??? WOAHHHHHHHHH LETS FOOKING GO!!! Yesssssss

It was just an explosion of power flashes and then insane winds

OMFG!!!!!!! Holy shit!!!! That was insane. Strongest winds I ever saw. Can’t wait to see what BDL got

There is an interesting lowering to the southwest. I wish it was light out to fully see it

Sometimes they can be cause for a quick spin up

Still at BDL

More power flashes!!!!

Just saw a power flash towards the northwest!!!!

Near continuous lightning now