weatherwiz

Better chance of the Patriots going 17-0, winning the Super Bowl AND the Red Sox to sneak into the playoffs and win the World Series.

They shouldn't run models past 180 hours. Its a waste of resources and with the explosion of social media, just elicits unnecessary hype which spills into the public and creates nothing but chaos.

We need a blowtorch reaction

sucks the timing of the s/w rotating through is so late today

We were having issues getting the main water valve to the house shut off but we didn’t want to do that because we still would have to figure out what was going on with the hose hookup. I was able to get part of the gutters cleaned before the first round of showers. That ordeal wasted a good 3 hours of the day. It should have taken 3 seconds to legit shut the water off. but as shitty as this was I think a potentially larger issue was prevented. Our water bill had been getting quite high the past year and I’ve noticed the hose would always be dripping. When I took the hose off and the water started gushing out (and the outside valve…did not shut the water off. When twisting it went from the gushing water to massively gushing water. So it occurred to me that water must have been constantly running. The whole situation is bizarre. Never came across anything like this. want to try and do gutters tomorrow but have a ton of stuff to also do before the Pats game.

What a disastrous day. Started cleaning the gutters and was going to use the hose to blast out any residue. Turn on the water, nothing coming out. Went to disconnect the hose from the house and all of a sudden water started gushing out so I go into the basement to find the shutoff valve. Couldn’t find it anywhere…spent over an hour and a half, so water was just gushing out. Called neighbors, realtor, tried turning off every valve I could find. finally we had to call non-emergency fire. They came and found out that we couldn’t find the valve because there was none so they grabbed something to get it shut off. Got a plumber to come and get a valve on there and replace the outside faucet which we had had some leaking issues with. I was starting to feel stupid not being able to find a shutoff valve…they’re not hard to find but there was no freaking valve on the stupid pipe

You still going?

I think there will be a line of downpours with some lightning which materializes. May fall apart as it trucks east but the lift and dynamics are pretty impressive.

I know...just messin'

Looks like I'll be getting my low topped squall line later hahaha. Going to outside and clean the cutters at some point this afternoon.

When I said that you said yawn

The conference is two weeks away with plenty of spots open! https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

The conference is two weeks away with plenty of spots open! https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

Got quite warm after a few hours of Sun plus the higher dews. Have to go outside later and move some stones...will be perfect weather.

I'm just sick of these EL Nino and La Nina's. We need a several year quiet period where the ocean is just neutral. For whatever reason, we're in a regime where winter conditions are shorter than they used to be and I'm kind of using the metric of growing season here. When we're dealing with these ENSO events where either the front end or back end is "favored" we're further reducing our chances. There needs to be a substantial global shakeup. -NAO's, blocking are all great but we have had horrific luck getting them to actually coincide with a storm potential or the blocking is overly strong and screws us that way. Who knows...maybe with what is going on with the African/Indian monsoon season and the anomalously north shifted ITCZ will be a driver in the shakeup. But if we get deep into the fall and especially past the solstice and the global regime is crap that will not bode well. I don't care what D10 EPS colors show

people who may forecast for that area but so boring around here nothing else to do lol

what sucks to me is how everything gets adjusted to the current climatological period. At least with the ONI, a new method was created so ONI values from previous decades are compared to the climatological period reflective for that period.

so do the Mets, but doesn't mean they'll deliver

What I've learned through my mass making of composites the past few years is the analog approach just isn't going to work anymore. The more and more I looked into things, the clearer it became there was a tremendous shift in the influences of ENSO on the global regime. So I've decided to start from scratch with composites. It's also become clear the traditional ONI may not be the best method for defining ENSO anymore, the RONI seems to be a better fit, however, I am also closely beginning to look into the SOI and then want to look into the MEI. I had previous constructed composites and breaking down ENSO into strength based on the ENS-ONI and ONI then I had started to incorporate the RONI, however, it started to become clear that oceanic aspect alone may not be enough to define strength (thus the importance of SOI/MEI).

Sun finally breaking through the clouds here

I wonder if there could be a few stray snow showers across the high terrain of upstate New York Sunday or even Green Mtns. That's a pretty hefty shortwave and llvl cold.

This https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202405010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202406010000

Certainly going to have to watch the Gulf this week. If anything were to develop it would probably only have a small window for strengthening but regardless of development there could be some impressive rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast this week.

Can't rule out some showers/storms Monday (probably north though) but yup a big snooze fest

lmao the PV is typically weak this time of year ("weaker" than average doesn't really mean anything).