weatherwiz

Turtle's name is also spelled Eleanor

That does look like a decent structure...hopefully there was not significant flooding there but from the few videos out there not sure how likely that is. Josh certainly knows what he’s doing though and I’m sure he had a backup to a backup to a backup al planned out and if he sensed danger he would quickly react

It seems like most of that information is just rumors and speculation. I spent a good chunk of the night reading around and looking for info but there never seems to be a direct source the info is coming from.

Ughh. I know in this past sometimes it’s been days since word but. I hope he’s alright :/

Without shifting through the tropical thread any updated word on Josh?

oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible.

12z GFS bufkit for MCO is a disaster. Over 10'' of rain and winds gusting over 70 knots for quite a duration

I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured.

Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.

I highly doubt the airport would be open Monday if current projections hold.

The rainfall potential here scares me...I wouldn't be surprised to see some 15-25'' rainfall amounts. That would be catastrophic. Heck, even storm surge has me a bit worried.

Could be very bad news for parts of FL. Some of the scenarios are pretty worrisome too with Dorian just stalling (which is a very real possibility) and dumping very significant rainfall totals. Could be very bad news...especially with coastal flooding/storm surge

WTF with the last 3-4 pages Maybe Donald Trump should just nuke this thread instead

Gotcha...I have never really followed tropical much and was using this in conjunction from what I have read...so virtually my being not very knowledgeable (especially with regards to the "climo") makes it difficult to use historical information with what I'm looking at.

where did you get that from...that's pretty cool. Anyways I've predominately been following along with this all summer. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting it http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge regarding tropical activity is extremely low, but some of the reasoning I've been seeing out there from others is a bit head scratching. The focus primarily seems to be on 1) SST's in the Atlantic 2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event) woah...woah...woah...woah There is a helluva lot more which goes into potential tropical activity than SST's and ENSO. SST's aren't a driver in tropical activity, SST's promote an ingredient needed for strengthening. Very similar to that of CAPE and t'storms...CAPE is not a driver in convection. Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust. Anyways, the entire PAC is above-average (except for the cold tongue punching through 1.2. The atmosphere can still very much act EL Nino-ish. Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. Even if the degree of SAL decreased what's out there just isn't going to dissipate overnight. There have also been some big areas of wind shear which just isn't going to relax b/c we say EL Nino is dead. If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic. Perhaps we'll see things in the Atlantic become more favorable overtime but I would be shocked is this season ended up above-average. Obviously things can heat up very quickly and we can see a later season but I think we would have to see drastic changes and those type of changes just aren't going to happen overnight and I'm sure there is going to be a pretty big lag in the change response.

I've been really starting to wonder if ENSO is AS BIG of a contributor as we have once thought...at least when we aren't dealing with a moderate-to-strong event. When you really dig into things and look at each ENSO event season-by-season I don't think there is as strong of a correlation as we may think. It is tough to say though b/c it really depends on what the driving force will be...maybe it's ENSO, maybe it's strength/position of tropical forcing (although this may tie into ENSO?), perhaps its the interactions between the lower strat. and upper trop., maybe MT or AAM. The last few years I think have been largely dictated by how the stratosphere has evolved and the lagged response by the troposphere...and that is another major wrench too is the whole lag factor as some responses we really don't notice until well after the initial event (whatever that may be) has occurred. One thing I'm really interested in (although having difficulty figuring out sources to analyze this information) is the heat budget and transport of energy from the equator to the Pole...I guess this can be done by assessing planetary/Rossby waves but my knowledge isn't strong enough to probably derive any conclusions or ideas just from this alone.

I'm looking forward to reading your information. The way you communicate your thoughts and the knowledge you present is highly inspiring. Your way with words makes the reads very easy and enjoyable. It would be great to have a snowy December for a change...seems like its been a while.

It doesn't seem like ENSO is going to be much of a contributor in the shaping of the pattern this winter. I would think we are closer to warm-neutral. Although I'm interested to see how that tongue of colder waters pushing east off of South America progresses moving forward. There also looks to be a pretty impressive easterly trade wind burst in the coming days originating around the dateline. This is something which could obviously change extremely quickly as we move towards the cooler season, but SSTA's across the NPAC and around Greenland are very, very warm. If that were to persist deep into the fall that could play a major factor in how the pattern evolves moving through the fall. But the theme through this summer (with regards to the configuration across east Russia into the PAC) has been for rather anomalous ridging at times into Alaska...if that holds through the fall that could yield some decent potential early on in the winter for us.

Looks like the equation used in Kevin's dewpoint calibration for his Davis

I think this is the type of approach that many like to take, however, I'm beginning to think this type of approach doesn't have as much merit as we would think. There are too many inter/intra-seasonal variables and influences which happen or can happen which are probably not correlated very well with the transition from the northern hemisphere summer to the northern hemisphere winter. I think one such example/phenomena is poleward propagating planetary waves...something like this can really escalate changes within the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere...heck it can yield changes which were not really foreseen.

Is there anyone here that uses python or familiar with it? I downloaded EDM and basically trying to figure out getting the numpy, pandas, and matplotlib packages. From what I'm doing is using command prompt typing in the following line: edm install ipython numpy then it compiled and a whole bunch of stuff happened. I thought all you should do is go into python and type in import numpy as np import pandas as pd import matplotlib as plt but when I do I get some error

This is a beast in WY

bullseye