weatherwiz

Trying to save him from meltdown territory

Sorry James, but you're mixing

I'm thinking the max totals within the banding are probably right around 8-10''. Think it will be tough to really do better than that unless a band completely rips over someone. Tough to figure out the placement. Still seems like convection is throwing off the NAM...it's VV distribution doesn't seem to make much sense as well as a few other things on the NAM

Coating of snow in Branford. Probably will up my map from 3-6'' to 4-8'' if I get time this afternoon...I was worried about mixing at the shore and only went 1-3'' there, but that might be a total bust on my part.

Seema to be a huge bias of the NAM in these types of setups and struggles mightily. I thought the GFS May have had a good handle with this and even the look on the euro has been intriguing.

The NAM has been extremely weird as of late (and by late for quite a while). One of my professors pointed it out. Part of the struggles with this system too is we’re not dealing with a consolidated piece of energy. There are numerous pieces of energy embedded within the flow and the models are struggling vastly. It’s certainly a good sign though that as we get closer to the 24-hr mark we’re nudging towards solutions of higher snow as opposed to less snow. one thing I’ve always liked are how tightly packed the thermal gradient is...that’s always a signal for not only solid banding, but a good indicator of where it can be anticipated.

Feeling much better about the initial 3-6” map but may even have to consider upping a bit if some of these trends continue tonight. A swath of 6-10” where banding occurs quite possible

I like it...extremely user friendly. I do hope though more products are added over time...such as 700 VV and fronto. The maps though can be tough to interpret (such as like 850 temps).

ahhh I got it. If you zoom in closer on a specific region. Never tried that before lol

Steve, How do you have values plotted like that on the snow map? I can't seem to figure it out.

Kraft should visit James next time instead of FL...and James is closer to Foxboro

Thoughts for CT. Think we'll see a decent band traverse the state. Worried about some taint along immediate shoreline. Rates maybe approaching 1-1.5'' per hour for a time. Heaviest 5-9 AM

I was hoping to gain some perspective in gaining further knowledge with wind forecasting using MOS and bufkit by hearing others experiences. Over the past several months having the opportunity to forecast for select locations across the country I've gained a tremendous amount of experience with weather all across the country and the challenges of forecasting. When I'm making wind forecasts (both wind direction, sustained winds, and potential gusts) I put alot of focus in bufkit, however, I'll also refer to MOS (more specifically for direction). Until I gain enough experience and confidence in the cities I forecast for I will at times check what the NWS has to say and compare to what I was thinking. I have noticed at times major differences between the NAM and GFS bufkit with regards to wind/gust potential (which stems down to I guess mixing and differences between the mixing algorithm (?) in each model and also sometimes a big difference between what I would interpret from bufkit and what the NWS has forecasted. For those who forecasts winds I would love to hear any experiences you have had with this and perhaps whats the best route to take when there are big differences.

can'tr rule out thunder either. soundings are pretty impressive with some weak instability

true

that may have been the same exact winter I am thinking of. Actually i think you're right

Question...this isn't storm related but I can't remember this for the life of me. I remember several...several winters back...this may even go back to Eastern US Wx days but there was one winter where there was alot of talk about confluence to the north...I think that was the term...but if I am thinking of this correctly having confluence just to our north is NOT good for us...it keeps storm track suppressed to our south?

Jesus...seeing when this was made and then realizing how long we've been at American Wx is insane...7 years now Can't believe how old I'm getting

If anyone is interested in an NFL pick-em league we have two leagues which members on this board can participate in. One of the leagues is free and has been an ongoing tradition of Eastern/American Wx for at least 10 years now. This league is done directly through this forum in the sports thread. The second league is entering its third season here on the boards and is a pay-league. He platform we've used in the past is yahoo, however, a different platform may be used this year. If you have any interest in participating in one or both of the leagues check out the following thread. The more participants, the more fun the league, and for the pay league, the more potential winnings! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50203-nfl-pick-em-2017-2018/#comment-4596041

I wouldn't really be surprised to see some dry slotting in that area. The 700mb low has been taking shape and actually seems to be pushing a bit further north than east and might be closing off a little more west than it is now...can see dry air beginning to wrap in around it

how far east?

It's going to be impossible for models, especially the models with not as coarse of a resolution to accurately or consistently depict the exact SLP track or even placement. This is a very compact system with very deep pressure and so many tight pressure contours packed together. Seeing how the wobbles, whether they are slight ticks west or slight ticks east probably don't mean much at all. We're really just going to have to follow mesoanalysis and even the RAP might not 100% accurately depict exact placement. The point is, the slight variations we are seeing really don't mean much for many in this forum, but probably more for extreme western CT back towards NYC. However, the precipitation should is rather expansive and will continue to be expansive into the overnight hours. Don't forget, this system is still in the beginning stages of maturation and all the processes are coming together for further strengthening and expansion of the precip shield. frontogenesis at all levels indicate we will continue seeing numerous heavy bands develop, perhaps even convective bands, over the next several hours and even as far west as NYC, which we are currently seeing happen. One thing I am a little concerned with, however, is having too many heavier bands isn't always great thing b/c there will be subsidence zones and that is something the GFS sort of hints at becoming the case later on as seen by negative VV values...so this is something to certainly watch. While one area is getting pounded, another is getting shafted.

That's exactly why the GFS is too far east IMO (the current 0z run)...with what is bolded that all should allow for a further west track than what the GFS has now.

I could see two different areas of max jackpots in this. I think Ray mentioned a page or two back about he could see a NE MA jackpot...and the other jackpot right around the same area that is suggested in the map from Channel 12 bbou-something posted above