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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Sunday looks intriguing. That's a pretty damn significant shortwave trough moving in...actually not so shortwave. But behind it the tropopause drops below 500mb. Could see some major upslope snows across NNE Sunday.
  2. weatherwiz
    Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow
  3. weatherwiz
    Yeah upslope could be pretty epic on some spots. What could be fun with this is watching the freezing level with dual-pol...it might completely crash going from NW to SE as that front moves through. Still gotta watch out for the NW Hills of CT...wouldn't give up on them too soon. Especially Norfolk lol
  4. weatherwiz
    If the NAM is correct it is going to rip across northern New England. There would be a swath of some pretty excellent upward vertical motion and right where the column is supportive for snow too.
  5. weatherwiz
    I was thinking more along the lines of the elevation component here. Either way...guess this just isn't trending in the right direction. Time to move ahead to next week...which might have some legs...maybe broken but with that pool of cold air around it's worth watching
  6. weatherwiz
    The RPM has seemed to handle the winter storms they've had west the past few months pretty well. That doesn't look all far-fetched. I could see many ending as a burst of some snow coating things up. All that cold has to do is arrive a tick earlier.
  7. weatherwiz
    Like in forecast discussions or twitter. Only time I see it posted on social media it’s usually done so with a snow map lol
  8. weatherwiz
    I don’t think I’ve ever seen this model referenced. There too many forecast models out there. Maybe resources should be all pooled together and go with a few models instead of 900 different types.
  9. weatherwiz
    WTF is the ICON? ive seen it floated out there the last few years but only in winter...never summer. is it just another model that gets used in winter b/c it has snow maps?
  10. weatherwiz
    There are people on twitter who have a relationship with the kuchera method and snow maps and it’s extremely disturbing. Garbage
  11. weatherwiz
    I really wish they would be eliminated. The code which is utilized to run them should be destroyed and the world needs to be brainwashed by the men in black pen to believe they never existed.
  12. weatherwiz
    Complete night/day between the GFS and NAM...on just about everything. Although what is interesting to note is it looks like on both the GFS/NAM the most favorable location for ulvl divergence is across New England...this would certainly favor a scenario like the GFS I suppose.
  13. weatherwiz
    This is great! Excellent information
  14. weatherwiz
    I guess as long as it remains weak and elongated that would be a good thing? That thing may get shred to pieces if this pattern keeps up lol
  15. weatherwiz
    That's a good point. Hopefully that doesn't happen...sort of can't be discounted either. At 84-hours you have a near 90 knot MLJ streak just getting ready to round the base of the trough...so amplification is certainly going to be occurring...just a matter of how strong.
  16. weatherwiz
    The 12z run looks to slowly delay the push of colder air a bit...which obviously could impact the onset of things. It is nice to see a more amped northern stream though. Doesn't look like any significant changes with southern stream energy.
  17. weatherwiz
    The SPV does look to become weakened and sort of elongated moving towards mid-month. Not surprised really with these crazy strong Rossby Waves which have been occurring.
  18. weatherwiz
    Looks like a pretty big heat flux is set to occur towards the end of the GFS run but positioned over Europe. This site is incredible...only problem is I don't understand how to interpret many of these tools lol. I think the increasing heat flux corresponds to sudden rises in temp
  19. weatherwiz
    Yeah I heard some horrid stories from that..took some people like 4-5 hours to get home...forget that. I think that was the same storm one of the news stations had a car in front of them drilled by some out of control idiot in a pick-up truck.
  20. weatherwiz
    yup that was the date...and you're not wrong on that I think they got slammed even worse even down in northern NJ. I don't think though that setup was anything like this.
  21. weatherwiz
    This sort of reminds me of a scenario we had maybe early last winter or the winter before...I don't remember if the set-up was as similar, but this concept applied and it worked out very well. There was that crazy strip that went through southern CT and caused a commute nightmare.
  22. weatherwiz
    Is MT a thing with the Appalachian Mountains? Anyways I feel pretty good that the Euro is sniffing this out. The theme for the past few weeks (maybe longer) has been for trough amplification along the Great Lakes...perhaps as a response to the low MT/AAM state we've been in? With that trough developing east of the Rockies through the week that should result in more -MT/AAM. November going to be a big winter month
  23. weatherwiz
    yeah I'm not very happy about this. If we have to go through another winter of these horrific outbreaks I'm going to scream. 850 temps around mid-month like -15C WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
  24. weatherwiz
    would be a great start to winter...and hopefully signs of an excellent trend for us
  25. weatherwiz
    That's an extremely tight thermal gradient...could help enhance an extremely narrow axis of some pretty heavy snow depending on how this materializes. Maybe room for some low-end warning criteria along a narrow strip.
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