weatherwiz

That is some cut-off low across the southwest that pinches off the jet around mid-month.

This sounding in southeast Canada is wild...you would think this was within the Arctic circle or something. H5 temp NEAR -50C with the tropopause there!!!!

System also closes off as it's passing near the benchmark...

I wonder if the LES snow machine will crank at all next week. It's going to be pretty fun though seeing how next week pans out. Lots of ingredients there to make things happen...just about timing of features really. It should be pretty favorable though for cyclogenesis off the east coast. What a cold shot too for the upper-Midwest...brutal

Near 90 in Ontario, CA tomorrow...I miss that

How the heck do you figure out pricing or registration? Says registration is quick and easy... https://www.wsitrader.com/Account/Login?ReturnUrl=%2f

That low next week is going to go bonkers as it heads towards Greenland. Near 150 kt H5 jet streak

Really can't ask for any look better than that at this range

The prospects are definitely there for something...whether "storm" is the proper word. There's going to be a front moving through with some major differences between what is in place tomorrow into Friday. Plenty of opportunity to keep colder air locked in the lower troposphere...pretty strong southwesterly MLJ should pump in plenty of moisture. I guess the biggest question will be is with [assuming likelihood of multiple waves] the strength of the waves and how they interact with whatever is in place aloft. Plenty of sfc convergence along the east coast though so something hopefully gives.

Dry? perhaps if you live in CA

There is some pretty hefty potential next week. I don't think we'll see one potent storm system...but there could be a firehose of moisture streaming up the east coast with a great deal of convergence and plenty of cold air nearby...some Pacific moisture gets injected, GoM, and even some Atlantic moisture. Big area of HP over the central U.S. with flow around providing llvl cold and huge HP in the Atlantic with the flow helping to aid in convergence. A front stalls over us and numerous waves of low pressure traverse the front. the north probably wins out but dang...this is juicy (the euro has similarities too)

I'm not sure if this is considered a bias or not, but in the medium range models have a tendency to overplay these types of scenarios...I'm going to start calling them Houdini b/c when one particular models is consistent with the evolution we all get sucked in and then all of a sudden...whammy it's gone.

Even a blind nut finds a squirrel

the models? well...kinda need them

The best is when everyone's favorite sites crash b/c of server overload from all the refresh requests

That's what it should have been viewed as all along. So many times people fall for these setups and except a monster snow event during a FROPA. It always was a cold front moving through...then the snow maps went crazy and people's pants dropped like potatoes

Not in the slightest lol

now I see it on pivotal...I swear it wasn't there 10-minutes ago lol

Found it... NOAA data center is having problems

Where at? I've checked Cod, tropicalridbits, and pivotal and there is no 12z runs and 6z barely finished. Trying to find out if there are any issues

Are computer models not running today?

This is a fantastic post...and yes, conditioning is a much more accurate word to use. when I was at school and winter threats came up the first thing some of the students would bring up in class, "what do the snow maps show?" Nobody cared about anything else. The models are proclaimed to be horrendous, brutal, garbage, blah, blah, blah, when the snow maps got it wrong in their backyard...the algorithms which go into these snow maps are pretty piss poor and too basic for something that is beyond basic and quite complicated.

Exactly. Too much emphasis is being placed on products which really shouldn't have that much weight placed on them. Each product is just a tool/piece of guidance. I can see how easy it is to just look at a map and run with it...but you're selling yourself short and if you're going to communicate that one map you're just going to pass along the wrong idea and all credibility becomes shot.

I disagree with this. Perhaps the stats will show this (although from bits and pieces that sometimes get tossed around on Twitter I think overall they haven't become worse). IMO, the biggest issue is laziness...there seems to be very little focus on meteorology anymore...it's all about rip and reading, focusing on a specific weather chart (whether it be a snow map, SLP, QPF) and running away with it. Social media I think is the biggest blame here...it's easy to post a model snowfall map showing 20-30'' of snow and then all of a sudden its retweeted thousands of times.