weatherwiz

This is what I certainly learned this time. Honestly should have learned this from previous mistakes, but this time it will stick to the noodle.

If we can get next week to pan out and then around Christmas...BDL could have a shot for a 100'' season!!!

It was fun though walking outside this morning and seeing a wet paste of snow on everything. Nothing more beautiful than that.

There have been plenty of times in the past past where I (or even others) have gone completely against everyone else and ended up nailing it. Forecasting involves much, much, much more than just looking at a models output and saying, "this is what's going to happen because the model says so". There was extremely poor agreement between all forecast models along with poor run-to-run consistency. It really wasn't until the last minute when there was a converging of models. IMO, two major aspects that models agreed upon was; 1. significant presence of llvl dry air 2. Exceptional mlvl lift So here you have two opposing factors working on each other...what one wins out? Play this scenario 100 times and the results are going to vary significantly. So you have to look at other factors. Doing so we see there was tremendous jet energy and support here...ULJ > 180 knots and a MLJ > 100 knots...this supports exceptional lift too...but there are also times where you have phenomenal jet support but it's not enough. Remember that event last March the forecasts for southern CT were like 10-20'' and totals ended up like 3-4''...I was adamant for days (I can link my blog post) that the storm would stay south and CT would not see much...but then at the last second I completely went against my idea and think I forecasted like 6-10''+...well I should have stuck to my thoughts b/c it was long island that got smoked. But yeah...I can take criticism...it doesn't really bother me at all. But what I've learned too is you don't just forecast something b/c someone else is or b/c a large group of people are.

I completely agree. This also isn't the first time I've been burned with these thoughts over the years...I think the struggle is (for me anyways) determining when that dry air will be a problem and when it won't. Trying to think back to past events where I've been burned like this what I kinda gather is...if you have sufficient lift in the snowgrowth zone and moisture...perhaps the llvls aren't as important. Sufficient lift into the DGZ doesn't only mean great snowgrowth, but it also indicates heavy precip rates...this can cool and saturate the column or at least offset the degree of drying. There are times too where we've had setups with great lift around 850 and even though the snowgrowth wasn't great...it produced.

It's very possible I did...but debating that is a Monday morning QB type deal. All guidance was hinting at not only dry air in the llvls but a significant amount of dry air...along with subsidence. The only aspect I think that was pretty agreed upon was the degree of lift in the mlvls associated with the fronto...all models were incredibly consistent with that. So then it was a battle between the stronger lift and the dry air in the llvls...there are times where the dry air wins out and there are times it doesn't. What makes forecasting incredibly challenging is at the end of the day analyzing model data and interpreting model data is going to be viewed differently by many. This is why historical events and research is a significantly underrated part of forecasting b/c through experience you can start to gauge the scenarios when flags will dominate or where the flags will be overcome. Heck...even as late as yesterday morning models were sort of trending down. for me...I think it was late last evening when I saw the HRRR and being more consistent that I realized I was cooked.

Steve did nail this...not just the totals but I'm pretty sure he provided rational as well for his forecast. Even if a 3-6'' range was a tad high...IMO it still worked perfectly b/c that sends a message to people. Had to go to the dentist this AM and some people there said it seemed like we got more than we were supposed to...my brother's girlfriend said the same. One thing I always love to do after an event is go back and see did I do something wrong...overlook something...and if I had to do it again would I have done anything differently. Upon this reflection, I think the only thing I would have done is 1-3'' or maybe a C to 2''. The concerns for dry air was a very real problem...it just didn't really work in as quickly and the initial fronto band played a much larger role. This could have gone either way. Great job, Steve!!!

That was fun to watch transpire overnight. The dry air just never made it in here and exceptional lift just slowly moved over the state. Given as moist as it was and with that lift...boom!

The radar has been fun to watch the past hour. The dry air is definitely influencing things...but it’s being fought of too

How much about?

It might not necessarily be a shortwave...might be associated with the second band of intense fronto models had. i think the front with the stuff over NW CT was to weaken a bit with another area of strong fronto organizing East

Man that couldn’t have been more spot on.

The NW part of the state has the be getting drilled. Wouldn’t be surprised if some towns there have like 3-4” already...maybe close to 5

Might Be starting to see influences now. Noticed radar lightening up a bit in CT outside of the heavy band near the NY/CT border. I think Scott mentioned two maxes...one near W CT and another NE CT into MA...might work out very well

Even now looking at radar. Been watching the western edge for signs of dry air. When it seems like it starts to get eaten away it quickly fills back in.

Yeah...my friend posted video from Pinney. But I have another friend who lives in Chestnut Apartments near Midtown and she even said at least 2”

Yeah it’s all good. Can’t get upset. In these situations where there are mixed signals you pick a stance and go with it. In this instance I opted to go for dry air winning out. It’s all good

Hearing at least 2” in Danbury

Up to a coating lol

Yeah this is going to be a pretty epic bust by me. Don’t really see signs of dry air working in either

Not a whole lot of W to E motion on the radar it appears.

Woah...this is crazy. The HRRR like stalls a band of heavy snow over CT for like 3-4 hours.

Expect that to be the theme through the morning

Was just about to post that. It’s off to the races now

Like to keep people on their toes