weatherwiz

I still have a decent snow depth in Windsor Locks...probably a good at least a good 6-8'' on the ground.

I agree here

Well I guess this is what happens with the vitamin D levels start getting low

It will be fun to get to track some severe wx Monday!!!

sorry man but I have to disagree. 1) the euro is not a Miller B. 2) Saying the Euro trended towards the GFS (or even if it was the GFS trending towards the Euro) is pretty insignificant...that's alluding to and indicating that "the one model is correct". This is still in the time range where forecast models can be very chaotic and susceptible to massive anomalies. While there are signals and have been signals for a much colder pattern around this time...it's not entirely set in stone yet. This period does seem highly volatile (volatile here virtually referring to the changes which are forecast to begin occurring across the PAC) but that doesn't necessarily correlate to a storm. We can easily see these models relax with this notion of the PV lobe being displaced at our latitude...that's virtually going to be the driver at this stage as to whether or not we get this cold or set up with a storm chance. I don't think EPO/PNA/NAO fields are in favor yet to be the driver for displacing cold.

Monday has potential too for a rather impressive severe wx event in the Gulf coast...could have potential for several tornadic supercells

Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow. Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol

gas cans exploding

GFS gets coastal CT to 50 lol...don't think so with that track. Plenty of room too for this to get more juiced. Pretty good jet dynamics and nice developing jet streak

A little concerning right now for down this way in that aspect...GFS is way too quick to warm here.

I hope it doesn't happen. I'm freezing just looking at it. Looks like the record lowest at 850 for Dec 23 is around -20C. This would be a pretty record shattering cold airmass lol.

I think you also mentioned the hints at the -30C air too

I'm sorry but there is nothing that can make -35C 850 air feel festive lol.

There will most certainly be a storm in that period...it's just whether that materializes. Regardless, it looks like we'll have (at least a brief) period of some pretty impressive cold. -30 to -35C being advertised at 850...yikes. Even if that modified to like -20 to -25...that's still some serious cold.

the latest sunrise happens until about the second week of January...then sunset starts to happen earlier. Looks like we increase sunset on the magnitude of at least a minute right around Christmas or so.

sunrises are still happening later..and a longer day-to-day rate than what we're increasing sunsets with daily. (hope that made sense)

I forgot about that post LOL. What an absurd contract. I should have known better than to bet against Cashman's trigger finger.

hey you adjusted as necessary...nothing wrong with that. You saw the trends and acted...and rightfully so

can't get better than that

yes...those are beautiful in a different way

I'll chime in as well. Do you have bufkit, Ray? If not coolwx.com has great tools to see what you could with bufkit. coolwx.com > Hourly forecast models > then you can choose plot, station, and model on the left hand side. Here is the 0z 3K NAM for BDL: 1. the -12C to -18C range is illustrated...this is where snow growth is most optimized 2. I highlighted by the purple box where the negative values of omega area (negative values of omega indicate rising motion). Notice how you have very negative values of omega right inside the snowgrowth zone...this is referred to as a "cross hair signature". When this occurs and you have sufficient ice and RH in this layer (what's great about bufkit is you can overly RH with this...I'll post an example) you're not only going to maximize snow growth...but you're going to get very intense precip rates 3. I circled area of dry air in the low-levels around 6z or so...that was my flag for all this Now let's look at the RH profile. The time of snow was prior to 12z...well the heaviest anyways. Notice something...very moist...the dry air in the lower levels doesn't take over until around 12z...AFTER the precip has fallen. My mistake here was harping that drier air would be in place earlier...but between 0z-12z...you have a very deep moist profile here (noted by the high RH values through the troposphere

It can be tough to incorporate soundings...moreso b/c its more work then just analyzing charts...clicking and generating soundings...ughhh. Soundings are a tremendous value though as we get inside 24...even 36 hours. Sometimes what I'll do is pick some "key locations"...so like pick a western location, northern, southern, and eastern...and just see how the structure of the atmosphere compares across these point locations

Makes a great deal of sense...certainly going to make mental note of this for the future. I also need to do more with cross-sectional analysis...a more dedicated analysis of cross-sections could have yielded a different thought/interpretation process from me.

Not sure I understand I guess that's what my mistake was...there is no question snowgrowth was going to be great...even looking at bufkit soundings all week...there was great omega into the DGZ with sufficient RH...but for some reason I thought the dry air/subsidence in the llvls would win out. At the end of the day I just don't think the dry air worked in like what was modeled...if it did maybe it would have been different. But OTOH great omega into the DGZ doesn't only help support great snowgrowth...it also promotes high precip rates.

Let's say that the dry air did get in here...would you think this plays out differently? When you look at the observed soundings from last night just behind the front...that dry air was legit...something prevented the dry air from really creeping in...maybe evap cooling, CAA, and rapid upward motion offset this drying?