weatherwiz

That's what has really been screwing with models looking in the medium-to-long range...the MJO has been on the active side and given the models struggle with the MJO it's yielded extremely uncertainty moving forward. Even short-term...there is uncertainty with how the MJO behaves before its signals weakens. Anyways...I think things are looking rather volatile moving towards the end of the month into February. I don't see any signals to lock-in cold for a pro-longed period...but this is something which I think is a bit overrated...especially given we're moving through the meat of climo. One signal which remains strong is how the Pacific looks to evolve with a very strong signal for a major EPO ridge to build across the NPAC. Would it be nice for the NAO/AO to be negative too...absolutely, but what I think to look for would be periods where they are "less positive" or becoming "less positive"...this signal can yield a brief influx of a colder airmas and then you just take your chances with timing with any storms...in which the pattern should be active.

get spring out of the way now and have summer arrive by April

This...you can see that pretty clearly comparing the 0z and 12z euro runs. They begin to diverge substantially right around the Thursday time frame...and given this is still only Monday that shows how much of a window we have until this picture really becomes clearer. Given the pieces involved here it may not be until the end of the week when we really have a clear idea...especially with phasing being involved. But once it becomes clear how the ridge/trough evolve Wednesday/Thursday we'll have a much better idea

We're very much in the game. Until we have a clear-cut defined signal no reason to discount any potential for us

It is still pretty far out dissecting some of these details...many of the details being discussed are going to change several times over the next few days. Biggest focus on this point should be with details surrounding the ridge as it builds into the west and how much amplification occurs with the downstream trough. As it stand right now given the time frame we're dealing with...there are many signals which point in the favorable as opposed to unfavorable direction.

Love the look of closing off 500 as the ULL tracks through the region...obviously still too early to determine where the track will be but it's a great signal. Also, it's a marginal airmass ahead of it but thankfully it isn't too crazy warm. maybe a few degrees C? PWATS approaching 1'' too in within the inflow of warm air...plenty of moisture to work with should that signal hold.

As we make strides towards the second half of winter that means spring is right around the corner!!! This is usually a great opportunity to start shifting the brain towards convective forecasting. Great time to discuss previous events and start throwing out ideas on how the global pattern may evolve as we move through spring. This May is extra special as I am likely going to go tornado chasing out west for the first time ever!!!! But with that said...can't lose focus on our severe season as once the Plains season winds down we quickly ramp up. 102 Days to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

12z GFS for BDL First time seeing some -20 ub/s pop up.

I wonder if the higher end of the range is moreso to cover for the potential that some localized (though maybe slightly more than just localized) areas see totals towards that end. There are going to be some embedded pockets of some pretty intense lift so there will be places that pull of 7'' to 8'' and that might be a bit more than just isolated...at least enough so to warrant incorporating a range to include those totals.

Thought it was pretty locked in even two days ago mixing was not going to be an issue

I won't mind that really...I work at the coast anyways so I would have to drive lol. But now I'm finally at a point to where I can get out west and catch some real t'storms

Branford. I can always go stay with my aunt in Windsor Locks during the good snow events How is the mill rate? When I moved from West Hartford to Windsor Locks my car insurance dropped like $50 a month or something. windsor Locks I think has 4th lowest mill rate. A friend of mine from school is looking to buy a house and myself and another friend would essentially rent out rooms..but I'm fine with sacrificing some snow. I'm not a fan of driving in that type of weather anyways...heck, I hate driving in rain when it's dark. I can't see at all

AIT

Best Taylor Swift song and one of the greatest songs of all time

eliminating the cuteness beginning today! When did you move to Milford? I'm actually aiming to move down there sometime in the spring. Can't wait...only a 20-minute commute to work as opposed to an hour

I am going to make some slight adjustments such as bringing the 3-6'' farther south and just put a 1-3'' along immediate shoreline

It was a crazy year in terms of weather for sure...Also had the June 1 severe weather outbreak But Boxing Day...dark memory for me...I was in a horrific spot. I was pissed.

Avatar should give a clue

Touche

I hope alex cora steals your snow

I think the cobb ratio is something that is more relevant to the mid-west than here...uses a higher avg ratio or something

Yeah I should start doing that more...1-3'' going into the 3-6'' range would be more than ideal here. I don't get why I like to get too cute with it. I think it's more to illustrate gradients and such perhaps. But I'm going to start canning this...unless of course it was a situation which really warranted it.

maybe a product of QPF...gotta keep in mind those things are using a baseline of 10:1 ratios...and ratios here I'm pretty certain will exceed 10:1. As much as i hate the snowfall maps when I saw they were spitting out 2-3'' on 10:1 ratios I felt pretty good about going 3-6'' as I felt ratios may be more 13:1 to 15:1

At this time don't see any need to make adjustments from this. Did receive a comment yesterday that I am probably too cute with southern CT there...which I am. Sometimes I like to be cute though. I always just feel though coastal CT somehow always finds a way to flip in these setups. Could have just moved the 3-6'' line farther south and then have a 1-3'' shading

20:1 don't think is happening but I think 15:1 is doable