weatherwiz

I know very little on this topic and trying to find some reputable places to become more educated on it but is the Saharan Dust into the U.S. just more media hype (not hype about the dust itself but impacts). I understand it can make for poor air quality, dim sunlight leading to less sfc heating, but what other impacts result from it. Does it impact aviation at all?

I do see two (or multiple lines with this). One down in that area but we should see another track through southern CT...biggest question is how much instability we have to work with.

This is incorrect...disregard.

We want no part of the morning stuff...that's if you want PM stuff.

It does look like there could be a little bit of s/w subsidence behind the morning crap. Could be both good and bad...good in a sense it could help clear things out but if its too strong it would be an inhibitor for later development.

I'm sick and tired of COC. I mean a good COC is fine once in a while but too much COC is just boring. Need more excitement...this has been boring. Luckily this changes...tomorrow!!!

agreed

Time to pin the severe thread. Gotta start preparing for damaging days ahead

Key Saturday will be how much heating we can generate after morning clouds/showers. Should we be able to destabilize sufficiently there could be a corridor of widespread wind damage...so there is room for some higher damaging wind probs here. Also, still can't sleep on Sunday

The yellows and greens are creeping closer.

That's a pretty good look to get some MCS action to drop in. Hopefully that look stays.

That's a Tuesday.

CLOSER!!!!

Increasing theta-e and nose of LLJ with approaching warm front. All we need to get a batch of showers with embedded thunder to move through

We get a batch of showers and embedded heavier downpours with thunder very early Saturday AM then we should see scattered-to-numerous showers and t'storms progress through the region Saturday night...they may fizzle before getting to extreme eastern areas but those areas see action Sunday.

I would go with WeatherBell. I use WeatherModels (even though I have a log in from school for WetherBell) but I think WeatherBell is better.

I had a dream last night I was surrounded by rising updrafts all around me...big precursor to Saturday!

might have to axe the beach in the morning. At least convective potential still there later in the day!!!

This is starting to become a bit more clear. While I still think a good chunk of the region sees something late Saturday the severe threat should wane pretty quickly across western sections...though this could extend through central CT. Sunday looks more like eastern areas.

Baby shark do do do do do do

Lots to resolve of course but can't sleep on Saturday...Sunday may not be much (it's either going to be Saturday or Sunday) but Saturday is sneaky...could actually see a window for a few supercells

I am staying in Hampton next Wednesday - Saturday. About 2 miles from Hampton Beach. Kinda wish we actually booked a bit closer but oh well. Do you know of any fireworks going in in NH during this window? Looks like the ones on the beach are a no-go b/c of the endangered birdies

the side of the Earth facing the sun

At least they'll get plenty of severe chances in the northern Plains with that look...perhaps upper-Midwest too

Finally...I'm getting tingles as my fingers stroke the keyboard typing this up. Intense tingles...just like the intense updrafts that will be plowing through the troposphere this weekend headed towards the stratosphere before the EL smacks them short. Low pressure associated with a fairly strong shortwave progresses slowly through southeast Canada over the weekend. As this strengthens we see an increase in winds aloft with 500mb winds in excess of 30-50 knots. At the surface a warm and humid airmass with sfc temperatures at least into the 80's with dewpoints into the 60's. Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the energy will help to contribute to MLCAPE values approaching 1500 J/KG both days...perhaps near 2,000 depending on degree of sfc heating. Given sufficient wind shear aloft, the main severe threat will be damaging winds, however, an early look at forecast soundings indicate straight and long hodographs. This would suggest splitting cells with an accompanied risk for large hail. Saturday looks to feature numerous t'storms from NY into northern New England...with the potential for the evolution of an MCS which could come with the threat for widespread damaging winds. Activity should persist into at least western sections of New England before beginning to diminish, however, activity may push through much of the region. The damaging wind threat could extend into MA should an MCS evolve (MA and southern NH). Sunday is a wildcard as it will all be dependent on cloud debris, however, strong shear and potential for sufficient CAPE will be there. FINALLY SOMETHING TO TRACK!!!!