weatherwiz

I'm pretty shocked the NWS hasn't issued any advisories or watches down that way. I don't know what local outlets are saying, but I think here are going to be plenty of people who are like WTF. A scenario like the NAM would be a utter disaster down there.

yeah they had few stretches where it was pretty active but it's been brutally quiet out there. Last year I think some places had like 400-500'' in February alone

We think it's brutal here for snow...take a look at this...THAT IS UGLY. 111'' thus far...I think last year they had that on like a 3 day span in February

I've realized I haven't had a dream about severe wx in a while...typically means that we will actually get more snow. Usually by now I'm having crazy dreams about severe wx where I'm seeing tornadoes and I'm trying to take video or pictures but I'm "unable to" and then I wake up

Don't even need the bikini when it's that warm

I hope March is active. When it's active it's fun and time goes by fast...let March be active and fun b/c once March ends...boom we're only one month away from severe wx season...nuts. Let's get 20-30'' in March and then flip to 70's and 80's come April.

Can I come?

How's Ekster doing these days?

That signal has been incredibly consistent since last Friday.

It's not necessarily just ignoring it...it's just trying to dive deeper into it and exploring and seeking answers into "why the change is happening" instead of just assuming so b/c it's being reflected on the charts (this also answers to Tip about what I mean by too easy). Looking at the charts...while a drop is obviously the trend...there is significant uncertainty regarding this towards the end of the month. For the past month, each drop in the AO has become less impressive than the previous drop...now I'm not using that as my case to claim that continues...what I'm suggesting from that is it's in part due to just how strong and how coupled the PV's are now...analyzing how H5 evolves on the GFS/euro/ensembles you can clearly see why the drop is being modeled...but what I'm also getting at is those changes which lead to weakening of the AO would start to be shown in about 3-4 days...so if that configuration isn't evolving as so by that time...can we really expect a major drop in the AO? One other major wild card is what's occurring in the GoA right now with that significant storm...following forecasts in the anchorage area the forecasts have been extremely uncertain and low confidence. Seems like the system is much stronger than sort of though. This may influence the shape of the height fields up that way over the next few days which would have some say in what happens after that.

I don't think it really holds to be that strong...but I think it stays on the stronger side. whether that's +1 (sure much different than now...but that's still strong) or +3 I couldn't say. Even in this regime though we've had cold shots and I would expect us to see some more...but will they be long-lived? Probably not...that will just make it all the more difficult to get something to work out in our favor. I'm thinking after the cold blast towards months end (should it verify) we flip towards warm and stay there until mid-May when backdoors decide to haunt us

A) oh come on...that's too easy but my point to that is when we see these changes modeled in the medium-to-long range...shouldn't signals which are leading to those changes be witnessed with initialization of models say at D4 or 5 (or some day). B ) makes sense C) This is all extremely informative information! But given the historic nature of the AO would the 45/60 day pattern be applicable here?

I'm not saying it stays 3-5SD but I think it stays strong enough to where it continues to influence and dominate the pattern. I completely agree the tropospheric PV can certainly change and isn't totally tied into the SPV but aren't the two strongly coupled currently? Something would have to disrupt that, no? I would think we want to start seeing the TPV and SPV decouple What I see happening is (which is yielding the TPV to weaken) is ridging develops just northeast of AK and this extends into the Arctic domain which would result in the weakening of the AO...but this is something we've seen modeled quite a bit over the past few weeks and that scenario just doesn't seem to materialize. One of the bigger changes looks to be more with AK and extending ridging more into AK...that could be a huge driver.

Again...everyone is completely relying on a model output saying it's going to drop to +1 but there is hardcore evidence or indications that actually happens?

what would be the catalyst behind the change? This is something which I was trying to get at with my evening rants last night. I don't think it's in the best interest to assume a pattern change is going to occur (and in this cases big changes to the AO) just b/c "it is modeled". How many times have we seen models indicate a pattern change beyond a certain time frame only for it to continue being delayed...and delayed? For it to have merit there has to be a catalyst. So in this situation, if we're looking at a big pattern change to occur in say 7-10 days or 10-14 days...I would think whatever the catalyst is to drive that changes should be sen in real-time within the next 3-4 days. What is going to allow a relaxation of the AO? I was reading some stuff last night and apparently the AO is forecast to remain completely in tact and very strong moving into March. Unless there is something to disrupt those historic westerlies I can't see this AO just going poof.

?? on wavelengths or the AO/March based on forecasts...not so sure that happens given the state of things and if so it's brief

What has me concerned with the AO relaxing are the strength of the westerlies in the lower stratosphere...they're ripping. Perhaps some brief weaknesses in the height field result in a temporary relaxation of the AO, but I think it will just quickly rise again. I agree...it's not necessarily the +AO in itself to blame...but I think the placement of the strongest anomalies with the AO are to blame. This coupled with a PAC which I don't think has been entirely helpful either...the BN heights down into the GoA with the +AO has totally killed us. If we were able to get higher heights to poke into AK things could be a bit different. The SE ridge has been a bit pesky too and helping to push storm track west

It is more than just the Arctic..but overall that's been the main driver of things. But I'm not so sure it becomes less impactful/hostile in March...at least when the signal is this strong. I agree that is the case when the signal is more muted or not as defined...but this puppy is a beast...this is a near historic +AO. I agree...but the shortening of wave lengths probably doesn't really do much to the pattern until what maybe late spring...? (Not totally well-versed on this subject) so not sure that alone would help us out.

nahhh you're good haha. Believe it or not I'm quite frustrated with this winter too lol...this has been pathetic. I was so pumped as the December start (I want to live through 100'' again). we're all angry and taking frustrations out any way possible

Saw this posted on twitter earlier...this is ridiculous. About as strong of a SPV you can get. The only thing that is going to break this down is the transitioning to northern hemisphere summer https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-87.56,48.38,325

I meant to say shorten...not lengthen. If we were in a completely different state I wouldn't be so quick to write off March but I just don't see the changes needed to completely disrupt things. Some winter the PAC completely dominates and when it's an unfavorable PAC we can be screwed big time...this time it's the Arctic. The signal is just too overpowering.

I think March has potential to be quite warm...if the AO remains as strongly positive as it is...which seems plausible combined with the look of the Pacific...once we start lengthening shortening the wavelengths as we near spring we could roast. I think we'll have to get lucky and time something right with a shot of cold air...that's not going to happen with this end of the week shot so we'll have to wait for the next one...which may not be until sometime next week...which may not even come out to be much if the AO rises like it seems to do

But it's more than just the seasonal vibe...it's what's occurred through the season. It would be totally different if the atmospheric state was different and we were just missing events...but that hasn't been the case. The entire hemispheric pattern has been pretty horrific...especially regarding the Arctic and that circulation has not only been strong but it's been dominating. This just isn't going to change overnight or in a week or two. There needs to be significant impact and disruption for changes to occur and there is typically a good 2-4 week lag from when those disruptions occur to the evolution of the pattern. All winter long...all winter long has been nothing but "500 looks good in 10 days" "EPS looking good in the long range" "GEFS and EPS agree it's coming" blah blah blah blah There is a reason why everything is shown at D10 and then the signal just completely disappears inside D5-6...models are always, always way too fast to completely change a pattern and there was never anything which supported the Arctic circulation changing...outside of what ensembles or D10 progs have shown...where there are disruptions occurring at the present that's when you can expect these D7-10 solutions to hold merit. I understand the theme is winter, cold, and snow and people don't want to hear things which dispute that...but when facing hard core reality the drawing has been on the board since the end of December/early January how this winter was going to unfold. People can do all they want to try and hold out hope that March will deliver...and then try and toss some past years which delivered to make them feel better or as a method to install hope. Even all winter (like what typically happens) those who have been "poo-pooing" winter and any threats get **** on but at the end of the day they've been spot on. People who like cold and snow just don't want to hear anything that disputes those possibilities.

When you have to hope for March to deliver to make things up....: Has it happened before...sure, but the odds aren't great. It's like being 20-games out of a playoff spot with 21-games left...it's over...it sucks but move on. "Hoping" isn't going to make things change

I can already smell the tulips