weatherwiz

Looking pretty good tomorrow...actually looks like we'll see a pretty solid line of low topped convection with gusty winds and numerous reports of small hail. Hell, could even be a transition to a brief period of extremely heavy snow in the Berks...maybe drop a quick inch?

Should add the greatest potential is probably across NY, northern PA and perhaps VT but maybe some stuff can sneak into W MA and W CT. Kinda depends on timing

A vigorous piece of s/w energy and associated strong surface cold front moves through New England Tuesday afternoon. Rather cold mid-level temperatures (~-25C at 500mb) will help promote fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7 C/KM). The nose of an 80+ knot MLJ streak will punch into the region during the afternoon. Combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures into the 50's and dewpoints into the 40's will yield a very weakly unstable airmass (perhaps 500 J/KG of CAPE). A strengthening low-level jet combined with strong forcing and weak instability may result in a few gusty t'storms with the potential for some small hail.

I like weather.cod.edu

Anyone else scroll through the 384-hr CAPE charts on the GFS yet?

I bet this summer they find traces of COVID-19 in our air which originated in the southwest and was transported to the Northeast via EML advection

20z HRRR for BDL...even getting a -20 of omega to pop up!!!!

1-2'' NYC

agreed

for us southern folk every tick south on the models is a tick north in the pants

This is going to surprise...even down in the valleys. Somewhere in the hills though get 7-10'' I bet.

18z NAM sounding near BDL tonight. Man crazy to think....posting soundings for winter wx now and in a month we'll probably be posting soundings for severe wx hahaha

Nice deep DGZ and you can kinda picture where the best fronto will develop and traverse...it's really going to rip later

Probably a better question for Will, Ryan, or Scott or the other more knowledgeable winter posters but I think that does apply but I'm not so sure if that's the case in a situation like this. I think the 30-50 miles NW is usually in association with like 850 or 700 lows and how the dynamics work with that. In this instance the heavy banding is really going to be tied into the zone of best frontogenesis so banding should match up with that pretty well.

This is great

NAM has really loved this idea. NAM usually does excellent with these ideas too. Hard to keep clothes on viewing that

The NAM I feel has been pretty consistent with this...quite similar to the Euro. I was buying this pretty good which is why I went aggressive with my map yesterday. Been pretty impressied with the NAM soundings at BDL

I remember that day. I think too that was the final snow threat to track. Then one month later...tornado outbreak! Seems like past years where we get April snow events (measurable) we get a big severe wx event in May or June. I think the same thing happens this year. Pretty volatile pattern setting up to our west...should that continue and we relax this pattern over us there may be a window. Hopefully for an EML

Didn't some areas get snow around April 20, 2018? Or like April 15?

I just saw that...couldn't believe my eyes. Seems like there is some room for that to happen too...I'm assuming one thing we'd like to see is that northern stream dig a little deeper?

God Steve what a disaster for you yesterday

Dry air would have helped with stronger winds. There are times though where I kinda question the instability values spit out by the HRRR/RAP on mesoanalysis. I think there is a bit more way in the way of CIN across the region then what's being advertised given the amount of rainfall which moved through. I think too some of the better mid-level jet support was just a bit too far west

Think it's all done here. Stuff to the west looks like a dud. I actually thought it would have been better down in PA/NJ but guess not. I actually wonder if b/c shear was so strong any updrafts that tried to become established were just completely torn apart with not enough buoyancy. MLCAPE and 3km CAPE values were pretty decent but I guess shear just far outweighed buoyancy. Probably a situation where if the LLJ was a good 20-30 knots weaker we may have had a more widespread event (although without the higher end reports).

yeah wind has really diminished here as well. Guess all that rain really stabilized things

Lightning popping up on Long Island headed towards SE CT. Could enhance winds in SE CT