weatherwiz

I think it was still a slight...for moderate I think you needed 45% wind (or 30% hatched)...I think hail too but maybe it was 30% for hail and 10% for TOR. But given this is a day 2 outlook b/c the 30% wind is hatched that may have qualified for a moderate...I forget.

I should be able to "chase" tomorrow...by chasing I mean sit at BDL (that's my goal). Or maybe go towards SW CT depending on how it looks. But I don't think I'll be going out-of-state with all the quarantine guidelines in place...although NY and MA aren't on the list but still.

PIN PIN PIN PIN

I am not the *biggest* fan of this product...I think it places too much emphasis on shear (especially in high shear/low CAPE setups) but values of 30-45 are pretty damn impressive for up here

Didn't that happen 5/31/98? Anyways...not sure how it translates to here but I know out west in those scenarios tend to lead to significant events...and rapid fire too. such rapid WAA an destabilization just yields such vigorous upward vertical motion...which also can be a factor with increasing SRH.

Let's hope we can get at least one of these days to work out. I think historically when we seem to have these multiple days of potential we typically get one to work out.

I would agree with this.

I should also add on the ORH and BOS data I posted that was looking at seasonal (Jun - Aug)...forgot about that before my post

BOS

Would think we end up passing 2016

thanks...couldn't think of the parent link. This is ORH

I know we use 90 as a bar for measurement during the summer but I would love to know where each major station stands historically with days between 85-89.

I was but I was only a few months old Sort of glad I didn't have to go through that with a memory

I think the argument is just dealing with differences of perspectives. Personal views (i.e. "how memorable") vs. outcome. Sure personally 67 vs. 61 nobody cares about but in statistical sense and historical it's a fairly big deal

ughh those were some horrific times

People won't remember it b/c it's not blasted about in the media...that's what helps people remember events (weather or world events).

During the month of June (I think it was June) when SNE had that period of being under the influence of the mid-Atlantic cut-off lows and NNE was torching...had that not happened BDL would probably easily be near 45 90F days and you could probably tackle on several more for PVD...maybe a few for ORH and perhaps BOS too.

Yup...this is why it's best to go with science and not personal opinion. If the science says its hot...then its hot. If Uncle Jo doesn't think it's hot...well than more power to Uncle Jo but what Uncle Jo thinks doesn't alter the facts. Yup

Discounting a summer a not hot b/c there wasn't records seems kinda silly...that's like discounting snow winter as snowy b/c it didn't produce a historic snowstorm or a snow event that dropped above"x" inches. Perhaps we didn't have record high's...perhaps some of the top climo stations didn't obtain impressive thresholds of certain temperature readings...but IMO duration is much more impressive than a daily record. And the duration of the warmth this summer was quite impressive. Once that switch flipped in late June or early July we just didn't look back. Hell, we couldn't even buy a legit cold front to move through...at our latitude that is quite impressive (even for summer). The consistency of days pushing 85-90 was quite impressive. Even during our "hot" summers we tend to get days of crap mixed in. Those were very few and far between.

MTD departures...analyze how you'd like

I also wonder how the morning MCS potential influences things later in the day. Those are always a significant challenge...most times they completely kill potential, however, there are times they can enhance potential. 1) Will there be s/w subsidence behind it? As explained before, this can be good in that it clears out cloud debris quicker, however, it can also be bad b/c if that subsidence can't be overcome later, convection becomes suppressed. 2) MCSs can certainly leave behind residual boundaries and these can be a focal point for convection initiation and they can also locally enhance tornado potential...depending on how the storm motion is with respect to the boundary. 3)Timing of the MCS...this is actually rather huge...is it bright and early or late morning.

I would like to see stronger height falls. I do like though how models seem to track some steeper lapse rates into here...and to verify it's not a COD algorithm forecast soundings do exhibit a weak EML signature

Impressive DCAPE values...def going to see some localized wind damage today

oops I made my post in wrong thread. too lazy to delete and add here

This is a pretty scary environment ahead of that forecast convection Thursday: