weatherwiz

I had a dream last night that when I checked the GFS it was showing over 5,000 CAPE here towards the end of the run and so I checked this morning and it has nothing

We are two weeks away before the 384-HR GFS officially gets into severe weather season!!!!!!!!!

screw it...time to just throw up a thread and work back from depression and hope things turn better moving into the summer. Pretty good signal for a low-topped squall line to push across southern New England during the early evening. Not much in the way of instability to work with but very strong forcing and jet dynamics. Should see some damaging wind gusts as this line works through nvection

Well we are getting a fropa...not expecting a big snow event or accumulating snow. but I do think many have potential to end as a burst of snow and maybe someone up north accumulates some. Could actually make a small argument for some decent snows across northern Maine.

The signal for some significant cold is pretty big. I don't know off hand what records are like but I would imagine some record low highs could be in jeopardy across some spots Friday.

That is one pretty damn cold airmass behind that front Thursday and it looks almost anafrontal like. Certainly could see many end as some snow when all said and done. Maybe some room for some type of accumulation well up north Nice jet structure too

EWR is 83...40 mph and gusting to 54...holy crap. They're mixing up to like 795mb

no it was a different website. was www.tornadohistoryproject.com I did come across this site and thought perhaps it was an updated site but looks like this one has been around a bit longer.

Does anyone know why tornadohistoryproject.com is no longer valid. I'm guessing maybe funding? It was an amazing website...incredibly user friendly. Is there anything similar out there to easily access yearly tornado data and break down by month, day, year, state, rating? Such a shame that website is just....gone

That is something to really monitor and keep in mind, especially if we end up with a big warmup early. Something like this just seems to becoming a new norm. There are so many things this could impact such as weaker inversions and greater low-level instability. Despite the fact they're a bit below-average just off the Southeast coast, that should change quickly over the next week with that ridge becoming established. A huge issue too should we get something tropical coming up the coast. We really got pretty lucky with Isaias last year because had it not made that second landfall I think we would have been screwed.

Had dewpoints been 5-7F higher 5/15/2018 we probably would have had a couple EF3+ rip across the state

Hopefully we can get strong enough mixing Wednesday and Thursday but a sneak look at some soundings shows there may be a bit of an inversion between like 850 and 925 which could prevent deeper mixing. Friday would probably offer best shot at mixing ahead of cold front but also more in the way of clouds. May also have a quite a bit of high-level clouds Wednesday and Thursday. 70 would be sick though!!

I was all set to go last year then COVID happened. Last season sucked anyways in the Plains...in fact, it's been relatively lackluster for the better part of the last decade outside of 2011 and another year or two. I am hopeful for this season though with the moderate La Nina with active southern stream. SSTA's recovering quickly in the Gulf too. Obviously not going to the Plains there since we're not out of the woods yet, but going next season for sure. Maybe this summer we can get some potent squall lines.

Next thing really is severe wx season...crap under two months away now and not even prepared yet. Time flying fast. Only one more full month to go until we're into severe season

Been insanely busy but what I'm currently thinking. More detail here https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2021/02/thursday-february-18-2021-winter-storm.html I do have some concerns about drier air in the northern part of the state. The HP does depart so we will eventually lose the influence of the northerly flow at the sfc but combination of never really fully saturating and best lift remaining south I think could hurt northern part of state. Pretty impressive signal though for a heavy WAA thump into southern CT. Issue too is ratios are going to be pretty trash...with exception of under the goods and even then nothing terribly impressive. I think the majority of the snow will be slow accumulating crap...then lots of freezing drizzle...maybe sleet evening and overnight then some lighter snows when some stronger lift comes through at times.

What a fun storm

Glad you got into work!

Ratios are certainly close to that. I’m down in Bethel and the snow growth and flakes are beautiful. About as perfect of dendrites as you can get.

Incredible snow growth in Bethel...been ripping for the past hour-plus

This is just strictly going to be a nowcasting situation.

The 0z HRRR seems oddly warm

Pretty far southeast with the banding signal...like really far SE. keeps it super close to low. :scared:

These setups do scare me. We've seen in the past similar situations where within 72-84 hours there will be slick ticks northwest and then boom...getting closer to and inside 48 hours this reverses. Usually happens with one model, we all discount it as an "outlier" then others follow suit lol. Not saying that's going to happen here but that's always in the back of my mind with these. If one of the Euro/GFS come out and are noticeably SE...I'm going to be quite scared. Again, don't think it happens but certainly a flag that needs to be kept in mind.

if it's far enough southeast but I don't foresee that happening. I think there's alot favoring heavy banding traversing much of CT.

These particular setups have such high bust potential...and in both directions. With these setups its you ever get nailed or get shafted...no in between. If I had a fear with this...it would be intense convection in the warm sector sort of robbing moisture or contributing to the sfc low ending up more SE.