weatherwiz

that's a damn well written discussion!

I understand they need to build the farm and getting such a pitcher would just require too many assets. But...maybe he can find an "under the radar" pitcher who he thinks can thrive in Boston and get them on the cheaper side.

Agreed! Pretty impressive sfc trough actually off to our West. That will definitely be the focus point for more scattered-t-numerous convection. There is a bit of a cap farther east up around 10-15K but alot of the shear and instability is below that anyways. I do like the signal for some discrete stuff late afternoon out this way.

Overall that was a pretty different set up.

Pretty impressive environment and CAMs are showing convection around that environment at the time...which would likely be discrete too given the greater forcing still pretty far west.

NAM hodo at BDL 7 PM tomorrow

@dendrite pin this otherwise this will bust and we won't get severe

there really is a pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/0-1km helicity (and 0-3km helicity) from like east-central Mass through CT late afternoon. Pretty long hodographs too

It is very intriguing. Looks like that alludes to what I mentioned earlier regarding theta-e ridge that becomes established across northeast MA through western/central CT. This is a bit east then what SPC mentions but it's something to watch.

agreed...especially based off his comments (but I always take what GM's say with a grain of salt )

The pattern wants to throw EML's at s over the next few weeks but I think the jet structure/placement is killing us. The jet looks to get shot pretty far northward so the EML plumes riding along the southern edge of the jet move into Canada. and going back to the May thread...there are also emerging signals for things to turn very warm to hot rather quickly after this miserable weekend. 582dm heights trying to poke into our region second half of next week

The more I look at this the more I become intrigued across central MA and more specifically around ORH County. Actually a pretty good overlap there of strong llvl CAPE and shear.

Kind of a good thing in this setup not to be overpowering with lift/forcing. Should help to keep activity more discrete but I'm sure we'll see a cluster or two evolve and that's where any enhanced would be possible.

I don't think we see a moderate risk with this...I don't think the aerial coverage will be great enough and would like to see stronger instability and a bit stronger shear. It is possible to see an area of enhanced added if enough confidences increases in a narrow swath for enhanced wind damage potential.

NAM NEST has a long-tracked superell from E NY to the NH coast

Now is the time to make a trade...don't wait until July. I know Sale is slated to come back hopefully maybe around or just after the All Star break but I would really like another big arm...whether it be a SP or RP.

There is certainly room for the first week of June to be quite warm. There are no strong signals which really making glaring which direction we will go but it's going to be a battle of being influenced by western ATL low and ridging to our west...but you have a huge dome of +15C to +16C 850 temps well into the OV and TN Valley and it won't take much to get these into our region. the first few days look quite cool but we could warm up very quickly and probably even see some humidity too

There looks to be a window of opportunity from northeast MA into northern CT perhaps for some rapid growing convection late afternoon right along what appears to be a theta-e ridge/higher instability axis.

Could see a tornado or two across upstate NY into northern New England

Correct...when looking at it from that aspect it makes sense but there are a ton of other factors to consider. Speaking from a theoretic/fundamental standpoint a warming Earth with a reduced equator-poleward temperature gradient would result in a decreased jet and would result in less conducive environments for cyclogenesis...which could be a big problem for us. Your point, however, would ring very true with tropical systems and holds merit to the notion that we will see more winter storms produce larger snow totals.

While perhaps true on a local level or in some areas of the world, this isn't entirely true on a overall large-scale.

Synoptics look quite favorable for cyclogenesis Pretty good jet structure Quite the thermal gradient

I don't think it's a dry fropa. Now if people are expecting 0.50-1.00'' of rain they're going to be let down. I think there will be some localized amounts around 0.50'' but for the most part probably a couple tenths of an inch to those who get anything. BOOM! Wants to achieve atmospheric equilibrium too quickly or something

The huge issue is when it comes to forecasting temperatures the NAM is flat out garbage. However, the NAM does a good job at sniffing out factors which could result in temperatures coming in below guidance...and come to think about it...has the NAM ever really given signals where temperatures could overshoot guidance lol. It looks like there might be a small pocket of cooler 925 temps (which happen to reside right over much of SNE)...but they do begin to warm significantly late in the afternoon. The ingredients are certainly there for a warm day tomorrow...and despite not getting into the true warm sector until very late, with enough sunshine the llvl airmass is plenty warm enough to give lower 70's...especially if can probably mix closer to 850. I foresee BD jumping like 3-5F between 4:00-5:00 PM tomorrow

For southern New England I would think the window for showers and thunderstorms is between 5-10 PM...as you go east across the region though the window will increase with time...out in eastern MA probably not until after midnight. Looks like enough instability that many probably see a decent light show.