Each run of the HRRR has become a bit more impressive for later this evening. While the storms arrive after peak heating...they move into an environment with better shear and even lapse rates with better llvl moisture.
It will be interesting to see if an increasing LLJ and llvl moisture into the evening will help keep storms going through western sections. But strongly agreed...alot will depend on how organized activity becomes upstream
Trying to bang out as much work as possible.
The CAMs are still a bit all over the place but they do agree that there definitely will be scattered convection...and of course greatest coverage across NY/PA into VT. Still a question as to whether we see any discrete storms ahead of the broken line which is where some of the divergence occurs. The environment still looks pretty favorable...just a matter of being able to utilize it
Greatest potential tomorrow looks to exist across Warren, Saratoga, and Washington Counties in NY into Addison and Rutland Counties in Vermont. I think there could be a small area of enhanced risk for this area.
"Thank you temperatures and dewpoints" for the 1000-1500 SBCAPE values...though SBCAPE should probably be between 1500-2500. they may have meant to say MLCAPE between 1000-1500