weatherwiz

Just now, dryslot said:

Of course, But its the public that makes the assumption, Everyone out there though wants to associate that if you get 2" of rainfall that it would be 24" of snow if it was cold, Thats not the case in most instances.

It happens quite a bit on twitter from hobbyists and I'm sure I've seen other meteorologists say it too lol. I want to count how many times I hear people say it this weekend...will be fun 

Just now, dryslot said:

That analogy gets tossed around by many more then just him, You here that all the time by folks that are not a into weather that always say can you imagine if this was all snow?

If you have at least some background of weather you should know not to make that connection...it's much more understandable for the general public to say that. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My pet peeve is when we get 8" of rain, and someone like snow88 will explain how much snow we would have gotten if it were 20 degrees colder...with blatant  disregard for the compromised ability of colder air to hold moisture.

I want to throw my phone everytime I see this mentioned on twitter. 

I think this is a good time for a twitter rant on this subject 

Where's @OceanStWx 

I actually don't know a whole lot about Mexican EML's but I think they're different than EML's originated in the southwest U.S. Obviously the processes are the same but I wonder what the differences are between Mexican EML and southwest US EML. 

Actually what could make things really interesting in the south is it looks like there is a pretty decent EML that advects in from the Mexican Plateau. Remember that sounding game we were playing months back? Time to play it again...that's a pretty solid sounding for December...anywhere in the country. Could be an early start to the severe Monday morning across LA...I could see tornadic supercells initiating quickly then becoming linear and producing a damaging squall line through TN and GA!!!!

I'm pretty intrigued by the severe weather potential Monday....especially down in LA where initiation looks to begin...best chance for supercells initially...have to see how quickly the llvl flow backs. 

13 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

CT actually had a significant ice storm in January 2009. There were some power outages and a few fatalities.

I think I may actually remember that...didn't that really crush Litchfield County and NW HFD cty?

9 minutes ago, Collinsville said:

Don't ever bring up November 2002 again!! From my spreadsheet

hey...that winter was solid...I think BDL had like 93''

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We had a decent one down here last January. Not severe, but took a lot of branches and weak trees down.

The cut-off was pretty crazy too...going from Branford to North Branford was nothing to ice on all the trees and wires 

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CT didn't get much of anything in 2008 except for the highest spots of Litchfield county. 

N CT had a pretty good one in early January 2005. I think it was 1/6/05. They also had the 11/17/02 ice storm. More elevation dependent. 

Id say parts of the state did pretty well on 12/23/17 as well. 

CT just missed out in 2008. I don't remember the 2005 one...not sure why. The 2017 was pretty decent..wasn't far off from being a pretty significant deal. 

I remember the 1998 one quite well...that was fun

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think it’s the old school thinking of lack of data. It’s got plenty of data with new satellites, remote sensing, aircraft etc.  I just think it’s the euro. They aren’t massive jumps, but something I’ve noticed. It could be right though. I’m not saying to discard it.

I thought I read something a few months back that the initialization process on the 6z/18z (Euro) was slightly different than the 0z/12z...like minor tweaks with parameterization. I'll have to see if I can find it. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those you can nail down and paint a “it gon rain” map at D7 and rest comfortably.

just slap on some green, crank open an IPA, and all it a day 

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Which model nailed this prolific rainer 7 days ago?

all of them lol

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I noticed that yesterday over there finishing a generator installation. I was surprised to see that much still otg by the airport. Close to the same up here in Westfield, about 9 inches left.

Do you know how warm BDL got Tuesday? I know it took a while for the warmer air to move up into that area. I think they finally pushed well into the 40's? But when I was getting home like 7:00ish there was some pretty damn dense fog. Then again...when you got like 15'' or whatever from a storm it takes a bit to melt...especially considering the fact that all the snow gets piled up further with snow removal 

I still have a decent snow depth in Windsor Locks...probably a good at least a good 6-8'' on the ground.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Couldn’t be more wrong. We’ve had snowpack 10 out of 12 days . Next . No one prefers Morch snow over December. Not even close 

I agree here

Well I guess this is what happens with the vitamin D levels start getting low 

It will be fun to get to track some severe wx Monday!!!

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

No one asked you. I like to talk to people who have a clue what's going on. Euro did trend towards the gfs. Maybe you or others dont think so but others I have spoke with think so.

sorry man but I have to disagree. 

1) the euro is not a Miller B. 

2) Saying the Euro trended towards the GFS (or even if it was the GFS trending towards the Euro) is pretty insignificant...that's alluding to and indicating that "the one model is correct". This is still in the time range where forecast models can be very chaotic and susceptible to massive anomalies. While there are signals and have been signals for a much colder pattern around this time...it's not entirely set in stone yet. This period does seem highly volatile (volatile here virtually referring to the changes which are forecast to begin occurring across the PAC) but that doesn't necessarily correlate to a storm. 

We can easily see these models relax with this notion of the PV lobe being displaced at our latitude...that's virtually going to be the driver at this stage as to whether or not we get this cold or set up with a storm chance. I don't think EPO/PNA/NAO fields are in favor yet to be the driver for displacing cold.  

Monday has potential too for a rather impressive severe wx event in the Gulf coast...could have potential for several tornadic supercells 

Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow.

Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol

Just now, MetHerb said:

Diamond Dust?  Freezing Fog?  Christmas lights?

gas cans exploding 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea the gfs had us in the upper 30s during the dryslot in the CNE blizzard and how did that play out? Juice this up some more, likely, and sound the ice alarms.

GFS gets coastal CT to 50 lol...don't think so with that track. 

Plenty of room too for this to get more juiced. Pretty good jet dynamics and nice developing jet streak 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

These southern vorts tend to juice up as we get closer. Ice storm for SNE is deff in play.

A little concerning right now for down this way in that aspect...GFS is way too quick to warm here. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. 

Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019.   Can it happen.. perhaps.  But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing

Just now, dendrite said:

Toss is like a hot tub salad.

I hope it doesn't happen. I'm freezing just looking at it. 

Looks like the record lowest at 850 for Dec 23 is around -20C. 

This would be a pretty record shattering cold airmass lol.