weatherwiz

ughhh mesoanalysis down. 

That image would be a great kickoff to a June thread

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

How does it look to the East near from Kevin NE to ORH?

severe threat is extremely low but looks like there could be a decent little light show out that way anyways

OH BOY!!!! This is MLCAPE too

Big increases in numbers on the 19z HRRR at BDL for 7 PM!!!!!!!!

3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Good discussion from Gray. Maybe I’ll be taking a quick ride up into the Maine coast from my place. 

 While overall flow is SWly, local
convergence due to a seabreeze boundary attempting to push inwards
will also make the area from Lewiston south through interior
Cumberland and York counties and into Strafford county favorable for
tornado formation if any significant cells are able to form and
take advantage of this environment in the early afternoon.

I'm intrigued by sea-breeze boundary down this way too...models continuing to hint at a narrow axis of enhanced 3km CAPE/llvl shear along it

Each run of the HRRR has become a bit more impressive for later this evening. While the storms arrive after peak heating...they move into an environment with better shear and even lapse rates with better llvl moisture. 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is only just the 1pm hour but ..heh, the timing is just off by that much ...

We may see propagation mechanics come east this evening ( meaning east of the Berkshires ...etc..), but that's contingent upon how organized the upstream activity gets. If it stays small clustered and discrete is may not pool outflow with W-E momentum ... 

Lapse rates are so so, and I think if one bothered to look at severe events ... they tend to scatter plot denser in the side of the graph with steeper lapse rates.  Granted, we don't normally get >1500 CAPEs cooked up around here ...so with some synoptic forcing with a mid level wind acceleration passing astride to the N...this may help/offset.   Not sure -

It will be interesting to see if an increasing LLJ and llvl moisture into the evening will help keep storms going through western sections. But strongly agreed...alot will depend on how organized activity becomes upstream

10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

So did the EML plume move out too quickly?

it didn't really materialize as it looked a few days ago...very weak/non-existent 

29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Sadly this thread really withered on the vine 

Trying to bang out as much work as possible. 

The CAMs are still a bit all over the place but they do agree that there definitely will be scattered convection...and of course greatest coverage across NY/PA into VT. Still a question as to whether we see any discrete storms ahead of the broken line which is where some of the divergence occurs. The environment still looks pretty favorable...just a matter of being able to utilize it

WTF...holy crap. 

He was such a great guy with tremendous passion. 

RIP James  

Greatest potential tomorrow looks to exist across Warren, Saratoga, and Washington Counties in NY into Addison and Rutland Counties in Vermont. I think there could be a small area of enhanced risk for this area.

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

“Thank you temperatures”?  Am I missing context somewhere? Lol 

"Thank you temperatures and dewpoints" for the 1000-1500 SBCAPE values...though SBCAPE should probably be between 1500-2500. they may have meant to say MLCAPE between 1000-1500

where do you get the HREF beyond 24-hours? 

edit:

the TOR/WIND/HAIL probs only go to 24-hours.

that's a damn well written discussion!

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not in this case.

 I understand they need to build the farm and getting such a pitcher would just require too many assets. But...maybe he can find an "under the radar" pitcher who he thinks can thrive in Boston and get them on the cheaper side. 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t really consider myself particularly knowledgeable when it comes to severe compared to others, but when I see 3km CAPE and low level helicity like that line up, I sit up. Obviously there’s a lot more that goes into it, but tomorrow looks interesting from a potential standpoint.

Agreed!

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like the stuff late aftn is more along a srfc trough that could hang convection up in NY state and maybe into VT and NH (possible ext NE MA?) Then maybe stuff gets into NW CT from better forcing/cold front after 22-23z. I don't see much hope east of BDL-ORH/LWM other than a flash and a boom. The models still don't agree with timing, so if it is a bit faster, the environment near those places I mentioned is actually pretty good if we can utilize the CAPE/Shear.

Pretty impressive sfc trough actually off to our West. That will definitely be the focus point for more scattered-t-numerous convection. There is a bit of a cap farther east up around 10-15K but alot of the shear and instability is below that anyways. I do like the signal for some discrete stuff late afternoon out this way.

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

How does this compare to that August threat last summer? I drove all the way out to Poughkeepsie for that one.

Overall that was a pretty different set up. 

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not bad…not bad at all 

Pretty impressive environment and CAMs are showing convection around that environment at the time...which would likely be discrete too given the greater forcing still pretty far west.

NAM hodo at BDL 7 PM tomorrow

@dendrite pin this otherwise this will bust and we won't get severe

there really is a pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/0-1km helicity (and 0-3km helicity) from like east-central Mass through CT late afternoon. Pretty long hodographs too 

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Surprised that @weatherwiz isn't tossing the  on the afternoon SPC 1730z OTLK

 

 

It is very intriguing. Looks like that alludes to what I mentioned earlier regarding theta-e ridge that becomes established across northeast MA through western/central CT. This is a bit east then what SPC mentions but it's something to watch. 

17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I highly doubt Bloom makes that type of trade.......

agreed...especially based off his comments (but I always take what GM's say with a grain of salt  )

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kidding... of course -

But the gist of the mid week 'potential' is a specter that's been looming on the charts for a week now actually - I remember commenting on this literally last Wednesday.  It's just interesting that these open wave scenarios seem like they are better performers - so we'll see.

Heh, just think, Wiz'  ... you may actually get a severe event in May like you seem to think you should, IN MAY   lol

The pattern wants to throw EML's at s over the next few weeks but I think the jet structure/placement is killing us. The jet looks to get shot pretty far northward so the EML plumes riding along the southern edge of the jet move into Canada. 

and going back to the May thread...there are also emerging signals for things to turn very warm to hot rather quickly after this miserable weekend. 582dm heights trying to poke into our region second half of next week