weatherwiz

This deserve thread of the year decade 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance is showing the WAA sort of hit a brick wall in SNE earl tomorrow morning which is a good sign for some enhanced WCB precip....it almost starts getting shunted east a bit once it hits the wall.

I was getting a little nervous yesterday b/c it was looking like the core of the WAA was actually going to weaken prior to arriving into SNE...but the latest signals are a bit impressive. I am a bit nervous though down this way...there is some pretty strong lift overhead after the warmth aloft has moved through...we could have a period of some moderate-to-heavy ZR

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this run showed maybe like 4-6" in about 6 hours. It's not a huge system, but it comes down pretty heavy for several hours at the peak.

It's a pretty good sign to see the front end lift here starting to emerge a bit more strongly on the models. You can actually see the isobars on the MSLP charts on the NAM really sort of tighten up and cluster closer together on the NAM...pretty good sign for heavier precip/lift

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... but saying there's only 45 days of winter remaining on December 15 or 16 of any given year is so egregiously asinine it immediately molts all credibility of the person that makes the statement/sentiment.   Personally, I don't care about the troll tactic - I don't actually take very much of who said what and why in here very seriously, and tend to ignore most of it because of it's intrinsically vapidity, and transparent cackling of the hoi polloi.  However, it looks odd for you personally, Wiz', to defend that person - at all - when you're posts are nut-to-butt right up against one another.  Just sayn' ... now you must know how defenders of Trump must feel.  That sort of 'embarrassing timing' has been a regular folly of his Presidential tragic comedy.

 

I took the 45 days of winter (or however it was phrased) as more of a tongue-in-cheek comment than in actual seriousness. The bolded is pretty funny...and probably spot on

But trolling or whatever aside...the premise of the thoughts aren't very unreasonable. I don't have a problem with Dr. Dews or his posting style (everyone has their own) and not saying I endorsed anything...just that it isn't totally unreasonable given the uncertainties for the second half of this month. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats a pretty damned big thump for the pike region through about 15z tomorrow.

Just over the border into MA...pretty good looking. Looks like some nice lift around the DGZ as well. Maybe 1.5''/Hr? 

In all fairness Dr. Dews isn't completely off here. Obviously things can change moving into January and February (as we've seen in the past). Yes it isn't officially winter yet and yes we have been active in the storms department with many places above-average in snowfall...but we've also had our share of cutters and warm events. The signals moving through the remainder of the month and to at least start January are incredibly mixed and can go either way. The PAC is quite volatile and is going to remain that way for some time. As long as this is the case, all possibilities from one side of the spectrum to the other are always going to be at play. We've been lucky to cash in on the potential's we have had, however, that doesn't mean that will continue to be the theme.

As great as it is to have "favorable patterns" for snow/winter events...it doesn't always guarantee them. With our region we can easily have a great pattern and miss out...we can have an awful pattern but if the cards align perfectly we can cash in on that brief opportunity. 

When you see models flip-flop like they have for the end of the month...that should be a huge flag and you can say all you want, analyze all you want, but until some sort of signal remains consistent...there is just no way of knowing which side will win. 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wiz bc you understand soundings much more than I do 

have you ever gone back and looked at soundings from say 10 warning level Events for HFD and say 10 advisory level events and looked at soundings. I imagine if you understand sounding this would be a valuable idea . I just say this bc you post them with all the forecasts (which I wished  I cared More to understand them fully) but it seems like if I was studying met it might actually be something in the curriculum they already had you do to make someone understand not just system flags but also soundings limitations (positive “surprises”)..thou I don’t know if I’m right  (as to how valuable that would be or not )

I've never done so for winter...but it's something I want to do. I really thought when I went back to school I could do a ton more with studying/research and the exact opposite happened...like I don't really think I have gained any additional (or very little) knowledge in winter wx or severe wx forecasting in the past 6-7 years. 

I'm sure some of the better schools go into some depth/detail on what you mentioned in the bold but not where I went...overall the program is pretty bad. Outside of the equations and atmospheric physics/chemistry (which is tremendous to know and understand and can be a great value when applied to understanding forecast models) I learned absolutely ZERO about forecasting while in school...absolutely nothing. If I never found this board back in 2007 and just went to school I would have little to no knowledge of how to forecast...outside of rip and reading MOS and just looking at the basics on models. 

In terms of forecast soundings we didn't do much with them...except look at a few examples from some random weather events in the 90's and just go over how to differentiate between Precip-types. 

I honestly get really pissed when I think about things b/c of how little I learned over the past 6-7 years. Between school and working 2-3 jobs I had zero time to do much in my own time. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

But models do simulate convection. So while the process is real to a point, this isn't 1995 and guidance not handling convection properly. It would have to completely miss the mark on this. 

so that's where the issues stemmed in the past? It had to do with poor handling/simulation of convection? Ok...that makes plenty of sense then. I just wasn't sure if there were other aspects involved. 

One thing I've never truly understood is how convection plays a role in how precipitation evolves. From what I've always gathered if there is a ton of convection in the south that can rob moisture and end up screwing us? (Maybe they have a MetEd module on this process...or some papers). Anyways, is that possible here? It seems pretty ripe in the south for convection today. This 12z sounding at LCH is pretty amazing for mid-December. Should be right on the cusp of where convective initiation occurs.

On 12/13/2019 at 10:30 PM, OceanStWx said:

You know it must be a good December if we're talking about EMLs 

Functionally I don't think there is any difference between the source region. What there has been some research into is the role aerosols play in worsening tornado outbreaks (hypothesis is that adding aerosols warms the lower levels, lowers LCLs, and increases wind shear). It's definitely an emerging area of research, but I think the Mexican aspect loops in because EMLs originating in that area tend of have more aerosols from Central American slash and burn operations.

Thanks for the reply! 

I think it was after the May high risk issuance that didn't really pan out that I encountered some information on how EML origins from Mexico...couldn't remember what it was but the aerosols ring a bell. I will say...the hypothesis though is quite interesting. However, I think one of the bigger concerns in reading was smoke from wildfires. The aerosols aspect is very interesting though! 

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That early H4-H5 lift usually winds up in virga.

I was trying to time that strongest lift with the arrival of the heavier precip...it did seem to somewhat match. But I do think we'll be dealing with some virga initially but if the intensities pan out hopefully it's brief. 

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@weatherwiz

Coolwx is a great site to get a quick glance at omega/growth and p-type accumulation, if bufkit isn't your thing. Even so, it's still faster than downloading and loading profiles into bufkit.

6Z GFS has a lot of ice for CT ranging from .1-.6 and NAM from .1-.4 with the exception of BDL. Again southern CT inland from the immediate coast looks to be in the most trouble.

.666 Ice for OXC on the GFS

Coolwx is certainly much more efficient then loading up bufkit profiles. A pretty underrated site as well for data. 

The ice aspect is definitely a tad concerning...though I still think we will fall sort of a significant icing event but it will be bad enough to impact travel. 

But in terms of the school cancellation stuff...tomorrow isn't really about snow...it's more the ice aspect. But I remember it being nearly impossible for West Hartford to cancel school growing up...every other surrounding school would be closed and we would be open or delayed. Snow totals had to be like 6-8"+ for us to have school cancelled...with the majority still falling during the early morning. 

Just now, Snow88 said:

They cancel school for 4 inches ?

They cancel school for 2 flakes now. 

I certainly wonder if there can be like a 4-6'' spot up along the CT/MA border. Strongest lift here is just above the DGZ but the front end potential with this looks pretty intriguing. 

The NAM never seems to handle these events well...outside of the CAD in the valleys but like Ray said it’s often too aggressive with mlvl warmth. Also seems to want to be too dry at the onset of things. After all the experience we have had with these in the boards...you almost don’t even need to look at models inside if like 24-48 hours to see how these event's will perform 

I came home to...hardly any snow pack. When I left the morning I still had some inches but it’s virtually gone 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May randomly ban a few people if I don't get a few inches of snow to insulate my bamboo rhizomes before the neggies hit later this week.

Can’t ban me 

6 minutes ago, JGNYK03 said:

Which is exactly why I think that line maybe be farther south. Going to be snow then mainly sleet and only some freezing rain north of 84 if the current colder trends continue. 

Oh yeah...if the colder trends continue then absolutely. I would certainly adjust if that were the case. Right now though not 100% confident that happens (though I would hedge that way)

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dude, rain is confined to the immediate coast. I’m not going above freezing. Drop the ice map south. 

The ice map is for freezing rain...not sleet. Freezing rain will occur over a larger area but I highlighted where best chance of freezing rain may accrete. 

Just did a map. These setups use to drive me nuts but they seem to be pretty straight forward...a few inches of snow, then some sleet/ice , then some rain. Hardest aspect is determining how much sleet vs. how much freezing rain. Soundings at BDL do have extending period for some freezing rain but I don't think we're looking at a significant icing event...enough though to make for ad travel. 

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Crepon said that Boyle taught them in his class, they did some labs and stuff with it etc...

It's a good tool everyone forecasting should use it, trouble with it though you can only use American models, GFS, NAM 3k etc.

I talked to Boyle a bit about bufkit and he wasn't happy it wasn't taught in any of the classes. It actually could have tied in great in thermo when doing the cloud physics section 

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Eisenson doesn't know how to use it though

I asked him once if he knew about it and if we could ever work with it and he said yeah I've used it.

the computers in the weather center didn't even have bufkit...I had to send an email for it to happen.

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they aren't actual temp contours in purple and yellow....they represent "growth" of the ice crystal....can't remember the units, but optimal is to have the omega centered inside the yellow contours.

ahhh growth...that makes sense. 

I think I remember that the structure of it ties into where temperatures fall between -10C and -20C. 

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Which is a damn shame, i had to learn about how to use bufkit through friends at school, asking questions online and trial and error and just becoming familiar with it over the years...

There should be an entire semester course on BUFKIT imo, you could easily fill up the whole time with everything you can do with that tool.

I only learned about bufkit from here...it was never once mentioned in any class. I agree...there should be a class devoted to bufkit...or at least included with Weather Analysis and Forecasting 

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Right, temp. It's not the actual temperature, but the optimal temperatue for snow growth. So you want those numbers (temperature) to line up with the best lift (omega) + RH. This is my understanding of it, someone can correct me if im wrong.

I always like to try to explain it when I do blog posts but I always feel like I'm explaining it incorrectly or confusing. 

What I sort of struggle with is the stricture of it I guess..and why the structure is the way it is...for example on the right side of the image the shape of the 10, 15, 20.

I hate when you look at something and you understand the significance of it (so like I understand when you see omega and lower omega values within this zone...that is great for snow) but you don't know how to explain it and properly. 

I thought we would do stuff in school with bufkit...but nobody even really heard of it or used it lol

Here is something I always forget...forget in the sense that I don't know how to explain it to others. It's regarding the snow growth overlay on bufkit. I understand the significant of the purple and yellow contours (which compose of the snow growth zone) but I don't know how to explain them. Each of those contours is temp right?

I want to see saggy trees and hear transformers pop 

12z GFS doesn't appear to be as robust with severe potential in the south...particularly around LA ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh