weatherwiz

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Partial subsume phase from D8+ is pure buck-shot guess-work... 

That said, I agree that "something" has been popping up in the ensembles of the GFS for a few days. I actually posted about that Solstice 'hint' last week - don't care to go look for it.   

 

I think you also mentioned the hints at the -30C air too 

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Yeah...that’s starting to show up on the extended forecasts. Hopefully we have some snow on the ground to at least make the chill festive.  

I'm sorry but there is nothing that can make -35C 850 air feel festive lol. 

There will most certainly be a storm in that period...it's just whether that materializes. Regardless, it looks like we'll have (at least a brief) period of some pretty impressive cold. -30 to -35C being advertised at 850...yikes. Even if that modified to like -20 to -25...that's still some serious cold. 

the latest sunrise happens until about the second week of January...then sunset starts to happen earlier. Looks like we increase sunset on the magnitude of at least a minute right around Christmas or so. 

18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Since I like snow in any part of snow season, I'd take the 30" March.  Another reason is that, even though December averages 12% more snow than March (19.6" to 17.6"), March has recorded 9 storms of a foot or more compared to 4 such events in December.  A third is average snow depth.  Over 21 winters Dec. 1 has averaged 1" (only 5 had 1"+) and increases to 9" by the 31st.  March begins with 21" on average and still has 13" on 3/31.  To each their own. 
 

Do you know why that is exactly? (Why sunsets are later but the days are still getting shorter?)

Years ago I read a fairly detailed reason for this, and came away confused.  Not sure whether that was due to a poor explanation or my lousy comprehension.

sunrises are still happening later..and a longer day-to-day rate than what we're increasing sunsets with daily. 

(hope that made sense)

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cmon Wizzy Let's fuking go Yanks

I forgot about that post LOL. 

What an absurd contract. I should have known better than to bet against Cashman's trigger finger. 

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

except for my first call was 2-5 lol, thats why i gave it an A and not A+. But i did bump up numbers in the litchfield hills and glad i did.

First Call, about 32 hours lead time

hey you adjusted as necessary...nothing wrong with that. You saw the trends and acted...and rightfully so 

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Final totals across the state vs. final call forecast. If there are any new or updated reports ill add them or if anyone has anything they want to add. I'm using my final call as always for verification, if i didn't chop the range down from 2-5 it would have been perfect. Grade: A

can't get better than that 

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

more beautiful than  or even  ?

yes...those are beautiful in a different way

I'll chime in as well. 

Do you have bufkit, Ray? If not coolwx.com has great tools to see what you could with bufkit.

coolwx.com > Hourly forecast models > then you can choose plot, station, and model on the left hand side.

Here is the 0z 3K NAM for BDL:

1. the -12C to -18C range is illustrated...this is where snow growth is most optimized

2. I highlighted by the purple box where the negative values of omega area (negative values of omega indicate rising motion). Notice how you have very negative values of omega right inside the snowgrowth zone...this is referred to as a "cross hair signature". When this occurs and you have sufficient ice and RH in this layer (what's great about bufkit is you can overly RH with this...I'll post an example) you're not only going to maximize snow growth...but you're going to get very intense precip rates

3. I circled area of dry air in the low-levels around 6z or so...that was my flag for all this

Now let's look at the RH profile. The time of snow was prior to 12z...well the heaviest anyways. Notice something...very moist...the dry air in the lower levels doesn't take over until around 12z...AFTER the precip has fallen. My mistake here was harping that drier air would be in place earlier...but between 0z-12z...you have a very deep moist profile here (noted by the high RH values through the troposphere

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need to incorporate soundings more....I get away with it in big dogs, but there smaller marginal events can burn me.

It can be tough to incorporate soundings...moreso b/c its more work then just analyzing charts...clicking and generating soundings...ughhh. 

Soundings are a tremendous value though as we get inside 24...even 36 hours. Sometimes what I'll do is pick some "key locations"...so like pick a western location, northern, southern, and eastern...and just see how the structure of the atmosphere compares across these point locations

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I think the GFS was just overzealous with the dry air. The precip was heavy enough too to keep any slightly drying layer saturated with sublimational wetbulbing. That 3km NAM I just posted was a lot more moist at H8 over C CT than the GFS was.

Makes a great deal of sense...certainly going to make mental note of this for the future. 

I also need to do more with cross-sectional analysis...a more dedicated analysis of cross-sections could have yielded a different thought/interpretation process from me.

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Because it SNE and you guys are on like a 15 to 20 year heater? 

Not sure I understand  

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I looked out and saw the snowgrowth last night, and knew that I had made a bad call...slow progression of RAD confirmed.

I guess that's what my mistake was...there is no question snowgrowth was going to be great...even looking at bufkit soundings all week...there was great omega into the DGZ with sufficient RH...but for some reason I thought the dry air/subsidence in the llvls would win out. At the end of the day I just don't think the dry air worked in like what was modeled...if it did maybe it would have been different. 

But OTOH great omega into the DGZ doesn't only help support great snowgrowth...it also promotes high precip rates.

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yup...good midlevel fronto with big omega crosshaired in the DGZ. Idk why we trust the GFS with its low levels either. It was probably too gung-ho with the H8 dry advection. I think I mentioned yesterday how the mesos had been more moist in that layer.

Let's say that the dry air did get in here...would you think this plays out differently? 

When you look at the observed soundings from last night just behind the front...that dry air was legit...something prevented the dry air from really creeping in...maybe evap cooling, CAA, and rapid upward motion offset this drying? 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like 25.9 through end of December. (5.6" in Nov '95 and 20.3" Dec '95)

So we have a shot to eclipse that! I want a 100'' season again. Let's make it happen

Will,

Do you know how much snow BDL had through December during the 1995-1996 season? 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see how good the snow growth was in that pic. This storm had high ratios. Esp elevated terrain where they didn't lose much qpf on the front end of the changeover.

Dendritic growth was excellent and that variable was actually portrayed very consistently on model guidance. One lesson this event should probably drive home is when there is really good snow growth progged, don't get too bearish/pessimistic. Cross hair structure makes up for many different types of sins on an event. 

If the lift had been progged to be maxing out near that layer of dry air, then it would have been different. But in this case, it was above the dry air in a saturated snow growth zone. 

This is what I certainly learned this time. Honestly should have learned this from previous mistakes, but this time it will stick to the noodle. 

If we can get next week to pan out and then around Christmas...BDL could have a shot for a 100'' season!!!

It was fun though walking outside this morning and seeing a wet paste of snow on everything. Nothing more beautiful than that. 

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

He is one of the best posters for his enthusiasm and interest in the hobby.  I commend him for that.  But the counterpoint to his poorly supported ideas was lacking.  My criticisms are more for the others than for him.  Many of us are "trained", red tag or not.  

And I'm sure he can take the criticism.  Forecasting zilch when everything else is 2-4" for days is ballsy.  When you stick your neck out that's what should happen.  It teaches you to respect the models.

There have been plenty of times in the past past where I (or even others) have gone completely against everyone else and ended up nailing it. Forecasting involves much, much, much more than just looking at a models output and saying, "this is what's going to happen because the model says so". 

There was extremely poor agreement between all forecast models along with poor run-to-run consistency. It really wasn't until the last minute when there was a converging of models. IMO, two major aspects that models agreed upon was;

1. significant presence of llvl dry air 

2. Exceptional mlvl lift

So here you have two opposing factors working on each other...what one wins out? Play this scenario 100 times and the results are going to vary significantly. So you have to look at other factors.

Doing so we see there was tremendous jet energy and support here...ULJ > 180 knots and a MLJ > 100 knots...this supports exceptional lift too...but there are also times where you have phenomenal jet support but it's not enough. 

Remember that event last March the forecasts for southern CT were like 10-20'' and totals ended up like 3-4''...I was adamant for days (I can link my blog post) that the storm would stay south and CT would not see much...but then at the last second I completely went against my idea and think I forecasted like 6-10''+...well I should have stuck to my thoughts b/c it was long island that got smoked.

But yeah...I can take criticism...it doesn't really bother me at all. But what I've learned too is you don't just forecast something b/c someone else is or b/c a large group of people are.  

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think not having hourly soundings can result in some missed opportunities for analysis. Also there was lift below the 850 dry air that produced some snow. Looks like 3 to 6 amounts were close to final outcome. Snowing good here now.

I completely agree. 

This also isn't the first time I've been burned with these thoughts over the years...I think the struggle is (for me anyways) determining when that dry air will be a problem and when it won't. Trying to think back to past events where I've been burned like this what I kinda gather is...if you have sufficient lift in the snowgrowth zone and moisture...perhaps the llvls aren't as important. Sufficient lift into the DGZ doesn't only mean great snowgrowth, but it also indicates heavy precip rates...this can cool and saturate the column or at least offset the degree of drying. 

There are times too where we've had setups with great lift around 850 and even though the snowgrowth wasn't great...it produced. 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I see your point Duggs, and I can identify with it. But Perhaps it was just a tad harsh though. Sometimes the presentation is just as important as the message.  

Wiz made great points on why he thought the dry air would win out. But perhaps He let the dry air idea consume his forecast Too much?  And I’m no MET at all, and don’t claim to be. Nor do I have the understanding that Wiz or any Red Tag has.

But meteorology seems to be a very delicate balance many times.  As soon as you get consumed with looking at one thing/aspect, that’s the downfall it seems.  Something can always offset something else, and it’s different in every case.  The dry air was there..but it didn’t do what some thought it would; or at least not to the degree that it was thought it could.  
 

Credit to Kevin and Ginxy...they had the right idea on this one. 

It's very possible I did...but debating that is a Monday morning QB type deal. All guidance was hinting at not only dry air in the llvls but a significant amount of dry air...along with subsidence. The only aspect I think that was pretty agreed upon was the degree of lift in the mlvls associated with the fronto...all models were incredibly consistent with that.

So then it was a battle between the stronger lift and the dry air in the llvls...there are times where the dry air wins out and there are times it doesn't. 

What makes forecasting incredibly challenging is at the end of the day analyzing model data and interpreting model data is going to be viewed differently by many. This is why historical events and research is a significantly underrated part of forecasting b/c through experience you can start to gauge the scenarios when flags will dominate or where the flags will be overcome. 

Heck...even as late as yesterday morning models were sort of trending down. for me...I think it was late last evening when I saw the HRRR and being more consistent that I realized I was cooked. 

Steve did nail this...not just the totals but I'm pretty sure he provided rational as well for his forecast. 

Even if a 3-6'' range was a tad high...IMO it still worked perfectly b/c that sends a message to people. Had to go to the dentist this AM and some people there said it seemed like we got more than we were supposed to...my brother's girlfriend said the same. 

One thing I always love to do after an event is go back and see did I do something wrong...overlook something...and if I had to do it again would I have done anything differently. Upon this reflection, I think the only thing I would have done is 1-3'' or maybe a C to 2''. The concerns for dry air was a very real problem...it just didn't really work in as quickly and the initial fronto band played a much larger role. This could have gone either way. 

Great job, Steve!!!

That was fun to watch transpire overnight. The dry air just never made it in here and exceptional lift just slowly moved over the state. Given as moist as it was and with that lift...boom!

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

1.0-1.5 on the cars and grass or so.  Roads and driveway just starting to coat up/turn white now.  And surprisingly the radar looks good coming up from the SW too.  

The radar has been fun to watch the past hour. The dry air is definitely influencing things...but it’s being fought of too