weatherwiz

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol ...

it's because of this maybe ?

Is that what the sun looks like over Tolland over the summer? 

I don't get why the NBM is so aggressive with temperatures for Monday across the Northeast. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

my guess

BDL

89 Sun

75 Mon

91 Tue ... I believe that warm front becomes more coherenty expressing in the guidance as we near on that day ...with a rather abrupt turn around and a "soaring" behavior on temp... I could see a cirrus glump and milk sky at 12z ...maybe even a mid level deck showers ... then 10 ... 11 am it's an open sky steam bath - mind you..I'm visualizing that. It may not be 'in' the guidance per se right now... But as the region is just subsumed by that deep layer tropospheric signal in the Euro - I just appears to be the better fit for trend and telecon ( even tho the latter is fading correlation in theory...)

If we are able to quickly get into sunshine Tuesday I certainly agree. Tuesday could be a late day high too (like a 20-21z high) as we are still increasing 850 temps (assuming we're achieving maximum mixing). This warm front looks like it could be pretty active with an extensive high cloud shield...but also have to keep in mind models often time overdo this aspect, especially across our region.

Next week is going to be pretty rollercoaster. Monday looks to be quite cool...especially compared to what we've been dealing with this week and with what looks to transpire Sunday. Tuesday is a bit of a wild card, though I suspect there could be a large west-to-east temperature gradient across the region as that warm front moves through. May even see some convection with the warm front. Wednesday looks like it could be pretty toasty...but lots of factors to consider here; timing of cold front, cloud cover, convective potential...the end of the week...could be quite cool at least across northern New England depending on how far the boundary sags. 

Won't be fun across parts of the Southeast with wildfire potential this week.

THANK YOU COD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This will make the CAPE ALERT thing I created even better. 

CT's positivity rate in last 24-hours...0.93% (206/22,265)!!! 

Hospitalizations down to 141

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well then how do we account for MCS?

They like to travel along the TE gradient around the northeast arcs of hot domes such that the region will be situating long that axes - that’s what I was going for originally. 

The thing is with the west wind 0-5km we actually are in positive sheer. 

The other thing is that climatology and heat domes breaking down ...they don’t typically end in a big thunderstorm whacks like that ; it seems like they would, but they they usually just sort of dwindle ..you get three days of dry days and then some front later on which isn’t happening anyway because next week the heat rolls back in  

I think it’s also possible that that whole Northwest flow regime is over model ends up being less

 

 

We get the MCS with the northwest flow aloft but morso the mid-levels than the low-levels. Think about it...when we get those ridge rolling MCS' we're typically characterized by a very warm/moist low-level airmass (which we typically need a southerly flow or a southerly component to the flow) and a west-to-northwest flow aloft...this usually helps with mid-level height falls, colder mid-level temperatures, and likely a stronger flow since the northwest flow is likely on the eastward flank of a trough and in between a ridge to the west. 

And agreed...those huge heat domes hardly ever end with big severe. 

Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Nobody will ask for proof. Do what you want. But I wouldn’t let what everybody else is doing dictate what you do. That’s a personal decision for you and no one else.

Some businesses may still require it, but I’m guessing they’ll be few and far between. 
I know for myself come the 28th, I’m done. Don’t care how many dirty looks I get.

You're completely right. 

If business require it or want proof of vaccination...then I'll just show my card. I can understand maybe if some businesses want to see how things go over the next few weeks but we have to be under a 2% positivity rate for the past few weeks here. I'm expecting to drop well below 1% by the end of the month. I'm actually very surprised b/c the 12-15 age group has been vaccinating like crazy here...I for sure thought that age bracket would be more hesitant.

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You want dews 

I used to be afraid of drinking mountain dew b/c of yellow 5 and my group of friends and I were convinced yellow 5 reduced...a very important ingredient in conceiving a baby

7 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

The liquor store and Dunkin probably aren’t requiring it. People just still choose to wear them. Hell, 80% around here still wear them outside. I suspect even with indoor mandates gone, you’ll see people wear them for months more. Of course, the unvaccinated are supposed to keep wearing them. Wink wink nudge nudge.

I'm unsure of what to do. I'm fully vaccinated so per the guidelines from the CDC and governor, I don't have to wear my mask indoors...but if businesses require it or if I see the majority of people doing in...then I'll just continue to do it. Probably just easier than being hassled and asking to show proof. My job is requiring masks to continue to be worn (unless sitting at your desk) through June 7 and they will re-evaluate. If you're with someone who is fully vaccinated then you don't need too (if both parties are comfortable). 

I'm scared about California, Washington, and Oregon this summer

Went to the package store today to grab some beer for the Bruins game. Wasn't sure whether to wear my mask or not lol. I elected to wear it but when I was inside there were a few others, including man behind the desk not wearing it. I also went to Dunkin Donuts...I saw some people walk in with it on so I elected to wear it and I noticed the workers were too. I think it's kind of dumb how each business can elect whether they require them or not. I mean it confuses the heck out of people and is just going to lead to problems. 

If the CDC is recommending no masks for those vaccinated and the Governor is going with that guidance...then it should be uniform across the board (for the state). This just emphasizes what was wrong with the handling of this pandemic all along...no consistency across the board.

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

NW flow reduce convergence because of larger scale sinking off Appalachia into SE Quad of New England?  

Moreso due to the lack of directional change on either side of the boundary. The greater the difference in wind direction (degrees) the greater the convergence. For example, typically we'll see SW, S, or SW flows ahead of an approaching cold front with winds more W, NW, or WNW behind the cold front...this usually results in increased convergence (and lift) along/just ahead of the front which helps to generate convection. 

This weekend's weather is actually a bit complex. I'm not totally enthused with convective potential (though isolated convection certainly possible) given the Northwesterly flow through the column which should reduce low-level convergence and raise some issues with boundary layer and low-level moisture. 

In terms of prospective dewpoints this is very interesting because the synoptic look isn't one to favor the advection of higher dewpoints into the region, however, given the placement of the high pressure which looks to be centered across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states could promote moisture working up through the upper-Midwest and transporting into our region from the northwest...which is how we will also get our warmth. But with a predominately NW flow it could be a challenge getting dewpoints up there...especially during peak-mixing hours. There could be a very brief window of pooling ahead of the front though. 

37 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's crazy how many TV commercials suddenly started up showing people "getting back to normal" and hitting bars and clubs with no masks on. Every time I watch TV now I am struck by how strong and consistent the messaging is. 

I get drunk just from watching them

This is a freaking joke

1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

 90 with 850 ~12 C?  

Well we are going to probably be mixing well beyond 850mb but just using 18z GFS bufkit for BDL...probably would have to mix into the 660mb level to hit 90 both Wednesday and Thursday. Actually thought the potential looked a bit better to hit 90 Thursday yesterday than it did today. Wednesday though does have the potential for a NW wind component so that could help tack on a few degrees. 

My A/C is Mother Nature. If she hot, I’m hot. If she could, I’m cold

Saw a flash of lightning!!!! 

Haven’t seen any lightning yet but hearing thunder. Don’t think there’s any CG’s 

Babysitting for my brother and girlfriend in new Britain and thunderstorm developing overhead!!!!!!!!! I can hear the thunder!!!!

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right - 'how dare we set'

it's like these 'ew' princess complex peopling society these days ... lol -

I got news for you, everything alive is a stinking, disgusting biological bag of volatile chemicals radiating funky odors.  

Just the gratuitous chance of evolutionary pathway has wended humanity into a state where they are "unfortunately " endowed with aesthetic awareness of it.  

Ha. That's what separates animals from the conceit of humans:   stink ...  sweaty disgusting stink, and our decision either by programming, or biologically ( probably both..) to recognize is as foul.   Dog's willing jam their noses in open butt -  ... so I guess at least for "some" individuals, they are above dog status. 

But people should acclimate to heat as much as they can in all seriousness.  Carbon footprint from running A.C.s in the Princess's boudoir ..adds up in a western civility where the 90th % interquartile mass density is all narcissists above having to be connected to the natural environment.   First "sniff" of heat and it's super high maintenance dainty needs for comfort without any recognition of virtue to endurance. 

This is actually just another monster head in the vast entitlement hydra that is created by turning over generations after generation in convenience.  It's not even a lost virtue issue anymore - it's simply just either never having been exposed to a reality without, or just removed from that so long.. people don't realize that a.c. sleeping is a luxury.  Interesting...

I do think about this selfishness my self.  But even I have my limits when sleeping no covers and a fan is not a enough.  Fan's ..they have a c-footprint too.  what can you do - 

Very well put. 

It was a few years back when Steve made a comment about people and the use of A/C's...it sparked a weenie in my brain. It's a no wonder people can't tolerate "heat". I mean I get when it gets above 90 and certainly 100...that's intense, especially when you have humidity. I guess even if you have some humidity when it's in the 80's...ok whatever. But people coup themselves up inside with A/C's blaring, probably don't have humidifiers so the air is bone dry so what happens when you go outside and it's 85/65...OG COURSE IT'S GOING TO FEEL "HOT". 

That has to be so bad for your immune system too...going from those two different type of environments so quickly. I mean think about it...you're driving and have the A/C blaring and your destination is the store, house, restaurant, etc...you get out of the car and are exposed to the sexy summer weather, then you go back inside to a climate controlled environment...all in the span of probably minutes...that's gotta be a shock on the immune system or the body. Our bodies are probably like, "Can you please pick something, we're trying to adjust here".

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Might be some gusty bangers today pike south scattered 

yeah the HRRR is a bit active today. small hail too perhaps

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But in all seriousness that is a possibility.  This has been discussed on here before.  

This is something that is definitely gaining more traction as the population size of such examples increases.