weatherwiz

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think elevation could initially help expedite accumulations a bit over ORH hills...

Fair point...I agree. (I'll admit I wasn't entirely incorporating that area into my post). That area I think should be favored anyways when talking about potential for 2-4''+ of accumulation. Typically with how things evolve in these situations just seem to favor those areas. Also looks like drier air is a bit slower to work that far east. 

The notion of differentiating coast/inland/elevation seems odd to me...I think Scott mentioned that too. Cold air arrives uniformly...the problem is more regarding how much QPF occurs on the colder side and how much lift we have to work with. the coast isn't going to get shutout b/c they're...on the coast. 

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Decent lift. I am still sticking with a 3 to 6 SNE snow. Still time to adjust.

Certainly can't discount the potential. I know I've been burned in the past with under estimating lift and what it can do. 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s going to be a battle. Some guidance has that bulge or baroclinic leaf look which is a good sign. But it will be fighting dry air advecting in.

More the reason to think eastern sections stand the better chance 

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

For you my dear, 6Z Euro 

You really know how to make me hot  

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAm and GFS BUFKIT do have good lift in the DGZ so there is that. But it's also fighting dry air near 850. Tough call.

What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation...

It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in  

Continued to be not very impressed for us here in CT...minimal, if any accumulations and by minimal I mean a dusting...maybe the NE Hills some can grab an inch to 2'' but forecast soundings (at least at BDL) show a ton of dry layers. There is a decent amount of mid-level lift though...that's for sure, but there's also a quite a bit of subsidence in the lowest 10-15K of the atmosphere. 

any accumulations are going to be extremely localized 

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The thing Wednesday is pressing SE as it tries to generate precip. That’s usually not good for bigger amounts. It tends to indicate CAA and drier air issues may occur. Something to keep in mind. It could come back juicier, but I’d still a little conservative. 

CAA dominates moving into Tuesday and well into Wednesday.

You can see the resultant subsidence

Here is the 850 RH. Plenty of dry air around. Sure dynamics are pretty damn solid and that will help with lift...but you can have all the lift you want...if there's nothing to lift...well 

I do agree with BOX there may be some narrow bands of snow, but this is going to be NBD in terms of accumulating snow. 

10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

It’s not as if it really going to change any actual winter forecasting though; the pros at the NWS don’t spew out those snow maps; even TWC doesn’t throw them out there – they generate their own consensus projection maps.  The people who I generally see putting those maps out there are weenies and Twitter “mets”, who are essentially on the scene for fun and entertainment vs. having any actual professional responsibility with respect to forecasting.

I get the idea that TWC does use snow maps but obviously are presented differently...I could be wrong on that though. 

Anyways...that's exactly what I mean! It's the twitter weenies using them and b/c there are so many of them they just dominate.

10 minutes ago, Nikoss427 said:

I literally had this argument an hour ago with one of my coworkers dying for any opportunity for a snow day. They go on Facebook and get a snowmap from a weather group and post it in a group text saying we're not having school 4 days out. I finally responded saying the claim is bogus and the response is, "well they're usually accurate." With no actual substance to back the statement up. This is a science teacher mind you... Rant over. 

What I also can't stand is when you see the people (I've seen this on TV too...not around here but from youtube videos) who will post a model output...and then say, "But this solution has zero chance of happening or it's extremely unlikely"...THEN WHY EVE POST IT OR MENTION IT??? 

A huge example of that was this one event last winter...I think it was the one where we had the ice event here in central CT. Where model snow maps were showing 20-30''...people would post them...I think even one of the local news stations did (not Ryan's station) and it was either the GFS or Euro showing 20-30'''they said, something along the lines of this is what one of our forecast models are showing but thankfully it likely won't happen...WTF is the point of mentioning it then? Just why? There is no logical reason to justify showing it or mentioning it. All people are going to do is see the 20-30'' and freak out...and that's exactly what happened 

Just now, dryslot said:

I agree, Its out of control and won't get any better, Lot of fake news on social media that folks that are naive fall for it, Some of the news media outlets are to blame too as they look to boost ratings.

Bingo! 

Also to your middle part...that is spot on too...I mean you can't put the total blame on the source providing the information...people time in and time out continue to fall for the hype...so sometimes people are there own worse enemy. 

For example, there is this ridiculous facebook group in CT...don't know what it's called but they have thousands, and thousands of followers...they do nothing but hype. People fall for it...get all pissed off...and blame meteorologists...but these same people CONTINUE to go to the same source for information. 

Kevin is 100% right when he says people love hype. People may say they don't but at the end of the day (for some psychological reason) people are easily sucked into hype. 

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a melt.

ehh this is beyond a melt. And I also want to add it's not directed towards anyone here...it's moreso social media...and IMO that's a problem and it's a problem that is only going to worsen. It's a problem b/c probability the majority of people out there receive their weather info from social media...and there is so much garbage going around, so much contradiction, that people are legit confused...and I hear it all the time. People really have zero clue who to trust anymore for weather information...one of the biggest contributors here is hype.

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Well snow maps are almost always going to give you way more snow through a model run than you actually receive. So in that sense, yes looking at snow maps will hype any pattern.

Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. 

Model QPF showing 1.2''...snow map has 10-15''...it's real. Then when it busts..."wahhh wahhhh the forecast models suck"   

Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

21 hours ago, Whineminster said:

How's this looking

Perfectly on track. 

While there is the Boston get-together, it's difficult for those who live a distance away from the Boston area to make it...especially during the week. It seems like it's been a quite a while since we had a big turnout get-together and with no conference in several years many of us haven't seen one another in quite some time. 

In the past, Funky Murphy's in Worcester has been a great central location for many. Funky Murphy's is also large enough to accommodate a large group and we've even had our own like "private room"in the back before. It also had a decent night crawl. Saturday's seem like the most logical day b/c many probably don't work and probably don't have to work the next day. Obviously that day is also used by many for family things but if we can get a date well in advance people can mark their calendar. 

I am thinking this can be something we do in late spring/early summer. Just late enough to where the weather may just begin to turn nicer and just early enough to where it may avoid vacation scheduling.  

As far as "what time" I don't think we really need to plan on that...the earliest arrivals probably be in the 2-3 time frame or whatever. 

What I would like to do is have this poll run for a few weeks and analyze the results of what month seems to be most popular. Once we get a good feeling on that then start pushing out a date in that month. 

Worcester would be great...especially a weekend day. That would certainly probably get the biggest gathering. Outside of the local Boston folks weekday just isn't going to work for anyone. 

I'm just going to start a thread for it. 

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Site is stormhamster.com

This is an absolutely gold mine. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No problem Wiz. I literally have thousands of links that I should organize.  Crankyweather.com has the best organized web weather links I know of.

I'll have to check his site out!

If you could do so that would be incredible! Perhaps you could do something similar to what is done at 33andRain.com. Since I'm really trying to get back into long-range forecasting and understanding all the various teleconnections, forcings, etc I've discovered that site and they have an incredible database going. 

Perhaps you can just organize everything in a thread and it can be pinned somewhere and it's just links. (didn't they have something similar going on in the NYC forum a while back?...maybe they still do. Haven't ventured there in a while).

I try to save bookmarks and links but I do it extremely poorly and when I want to find something I can't lol 

I have to thank Steve for posting that link to the Ensemble Situational Awareness table a few weeks back...never came across it but it's phenomenal. Steve always has awesome links.

Anyways, PWATS are going to be quite high ahead of that cold front next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood threat develop...especially with the snow pack.

An amplifying trough across the west over the region results in a building ridge downstream across the east coast. The result will be two days of above-average temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Of bigger interest is a pretty significant longwave trough moving through the northern Plains towards the Northeast Monday into Wednesday. Anomalously strong llvl flow through the troposphere will yield an unseasonably strong northward flux of moisture characterized by dewpoints climbing into the 40's and 50's. 

As the longwave trough approaches so will a cold front. Ahead of the cold front will be numerous areas of widespread showers and heavier downpours. Very strong dynamics look to be present with forecast models indicating an impressive 80-100+ MLJ streak developing around the base of the trough moving through the warm sector. While lapse rates won't be impressive (both mlvl and llvl) a moist llvl airmass should result in weak instability. The potential exists for a low-topped line of convection to develop ahead of the front which should move through a good part of the region. There may be two areas where some isolated damaging (convective) winds may occur; PA into NY/western New England Monday and then across eastern southern New England Tuesday. 

Mesoscale aspects are going to play some big influences at times; especially regarding where some of the heaviest rain occurs. Flooding doesn't appear to be a major threat, however, some local focal points of flooding may transpire. 

This will be another drawn out event...characterized by periods where the weather is quite unsettled and other periods where it is quiet. 

I wonder if there is some sort of database out there which records/measures the accuracy of MOS at each forecast location. I'd be curious to see where MOS does overly well and where it sucks. I have a feeling it's probably trash at Sioux Falls, SD. 

Came home to this yesterday.

47 minutes ago, SophieG said:

southern Vermont? 

farther north I think...like central/northern VT. Not completely confident on it but I think there are some signals. 

Could see several-inches of upslope snow tomorrow night in VT. 

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I would estimate 5" here. So it can't be far from Logan. 

Actually you probably mean Logan the poster.

No I was referring to the airport. 

Thanks! 

Any ideas for updated numbers at Logan? Last PNS report was after midnight