weatherwiz

Could be some boundary enhancement out that way

Could be some interesting cells tomorrow. I think I saw Tip make mention but this is a setup where you can get brief low LCL spinups. Any localized pockets of heating tomorrow will make things intriguing. I could actually see enhanced risk in parts of NJ into SE NY/Fairfield County

HRRR/GFS pretty bullish on dewpoints mixing out. That does make sense when you consider the fact that sfc winds may have a more westerly component, however, llvl moisture is pretty rich with pretty high theta-e air. Based on the setup I would expect dewpoint pooling. I don't think we'll see dewpoints as high as the NAM is advertising (maybe over a small area) but they should remain in the 70-73F. I'd be stunned if they dropped into the 60's

The HRRR is mixing out dewpoints. Don't really see that happening given 850 dews that are like +14C

Actually speaking of spiders I've hardly seen any thus far inside my house yet. There's a huge daddy long-leg that's kinda parked near my bed but those don't really scare me. They just sit and chill in the same spot until they die. As long as they don't come near me I'm good. It's these stupid Wolf and fishing spiders I had last year I'm kinda scared about.

It didn't really handle yesterday well. Given what transpired yesterday (lots of leftover boundaries) and plenty of heating/moisture with increasing shear aloft and weak pressure trough moving through just after prime heating I would think today's is a pretty active day.

yeah the plan is to probably go into MA. Maybe around Springfield.

Yes!

STAY ON TOPIC

There were more damaging wind reports outside of the marginal area then there were inside (Not a knock on SPC...just funny how that works sometimes)

Dallas?

Yes but there may be some local enhanced tornado potential in a few areas tomorrow

No derecho but may see a concentrated area of numerous damage reports

It’s a downed tree limb lol

No tree left standing tomorrow

I actually think there is potential for a tornado around BOS. P

Friends house in Chestnut Hill

I am sitting outside...not bad at all in the shade. Going to start working outside from now on. Fook wasting away inside a house

We as in your backyard or we as the region as a whole

Wednesday features yet another day of high heat and humidity for many, however, this time that energy is liable to be utilized as a weak surface trough/associated surface low pressure track from north-central NY through north-central New England. The combination of temperatures ranging from upper 80's to mid 90's and dewpoints pushing lower 70's will contribute to a moderate unstable airmass with MLCAPE values likely exceeding 1500-2000 J/KG despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Forecast models also indicate a belt of 50+ knots at 500mb traversing portions of the region with 25-30+ knots of low-level shear. Scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms should begin to rapidly fire by mid-to-late afternoon with activity quickly converging into multiple line segments. Wind shear is more than sufficient for activity to quickly organize into multiple lines. Combination of strong wind shear, moderate instability, and very steep low-level lapse rates will bring about the potential for damaging wind gusts, including a swath of widespread damaging wind gusts. Large CAPE, especially in the hail growth zone, will also bring about the potential for large hail, especially early on in storm mode. This will also contribute to vivid/frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A tornado or two is also possible...especially along any llvl convergence zones. PWATS > 1.50'' suggest the potential for poor drainage flash flooding. Thursday also has potential but tomorrow will play a factor into that.

It's so nice out. Sick in tired of sitting inside in AC during the summer. What a freaking waste. Should just take my laptop outside and work. I came to this realization when I worked from home most of last summer...just freaking wasting away sitting inside. It's horribly depressing.

ENAHNED RISK TOMORROW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can't wait to make a thread in a few hours. YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! DAMAGE HEAVY, HEAVY DAMAGE!!!!!

There may be some localized influences which could increase the potential for a tornado out that way

no EML

I made a post about Wednesday yesterday morning. I had thought there was a chance to get some steeper mid-level lapse rates but models kinda backed off on that. Obviously SBCAPE is going to be through the roof given the high temps/dewpoints but as Scott said, MLCAPE is what you want to look at. The NAM is generating insane MLCAPE values tomorrow but its also spitting out Td's into the mid-70's. Now is that possible...it certainly isn't uncommon to see dewpoint pooling ahead of an approaching front but I'm not totally sold yet on dews that high (but I haven't looked in detail to say this for sure). One issue I see with for tomorrow is the strongest shear being displaced from the strongest instability, however, there is enough shear across northern/central New England to certainly warrant some supercell potential there. Given tall/skinny CAPE profiles and high PWATS greatest risks will be 1) Vivid/frequent CG lightning 2) Localized flash flooding (poor drainage) 3) Localized damaging wind gusts/hail I'll do a thread later...and include Thursday. Thursday could be decent