weatherwiz

There's some synoptic support

The HRRR has been pretty steadfast. That's gotta at least count for something

Especially if GFS is correct. Not very often you see NAM MOS > GFS MOS with temps. While I'm a big fan of NBM for temps I think tomorrow is a prime example of when it should be tossed.

Does BOS even crack 70 tomorrow?

I'm just going to blindfold myself tomorrow, walk outside, and stick my tongue out. If I feel drops it's raining, if not, it's not.

12z GFS bufkit for CHH

Despite how tilted the structure is early on looks like it tries to become vertically stacked and occlude rather quickly. Something to watch too when taking into account max rain totals.

Just had something pass overhead too in Springfield not long ago. Sounded rather low.

This system is very tilted with height. So there is room for some significant strengthening. But look at this upper-level look. I don't think some of the hi-res can be discounted. At this point, even being so close in, I don't think any solution can be discounted. There is no hardcore evidence of any one solution having more merit than another. There has been some ensemble support to.

I really do hope that we can muster up some coastal storms moving into the fall. One thing we would usually rely on too is some remnant tropical systems in the Gulf moving up along and advancing cold front but no signs of that.

Certainly depends on where you're located. It's actually pretty interesting to see how drastically different things can be over such short distances.

And that's the thing...that's what happens in summer. Some areas get hit more than others.

I see lush green trees everywhere. Sure some lawns are brown and crisp (some more than others) but unless you are peculiar about lawn upkeep most peoples lawns get brownish anyway in the summer, especially when you add in dog pee and poop

Guess this is going to be a pretty legit system it's just a question of how far west can this tuck? Could you argue the upper-levels favor a potential tuck scenario?

Fun

Great point.

I don't dispute at all that there are serious vegetation issues within the region and that we are seeing that. But IMO drought should be used as an extreme term. Save that term for when things are really extreme. There is a difference between abnormally dry and flat out drought. The drought talk is being used too much too because of this summer. The majority of our precipitation during the summer months is convectively driven, not synoptically driven. With that there will be certain areas which get hit hard with convection and other areas that don't get much at all. One area getting hit by a thunderstorm 2-3 times could see as much as 2-3-4'' of rain. Hell, one thunderstorm could drop a quick 1.5-2.5''. Sure coming into this summer with a bit of a deficit didn't help. If we move through the fall with little rain or winter with not much snow then I think the drought term would have much more value.

Especially here. The West is probably laughing at us.

Here's a good one

OT but better then east/west, drought/dirt, swirly talk but how is exactly a modoki ENSO event defined? Is it when you have core anomalies located in both west/east based ENSO regions?

Hopefully it ripped off a roof tile and we can classify it as an EF-U or EF-0

The best possible forecast to probably make with this is scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, with some heavier downpours around and maybe a narrow corridor of heavier rain potential.

I read about this in the book I bought about Connecticut Tornadoes...which I never read through because some things in it annoyed me. Anyways, if this is the event I am thinking of there was something very specific which prevented a much more significant death toll. And I think it was that storm that went through the New Britain area. But if it had tracked I guess just some miles to the northeast (closer to Hartford) the death toll may have been well into the hundreds, if not, higher.

That is one rather large 500mb circulation. That ultimately likely hurts us here. It's pretty much centered over New England and the majority of shortwave activity rotates around it with all the best forcing and lift displaced outside our region.

Only 261 says until May 1 ughhhhhhh