weatherwiz

Looking back at December I really think it was the Arctic domain that screwed us more then anything. There was so much excitement for blocking and a negative NAO, but I think the structure and placement of the anomalies hurt us. I think if we had seen these anomalies farther to the north and east we would have been smoked the second half of the month. I guess you could argue having the height anomalies in the GoA farther east too. But look at the 10-20 and then 20-25. If that block is farther east the trough axis is shifted east and more favorable for us. IIRC, there seems to be a lot of optimism for a west-based NAO block, but IMO, an east-based is what we really want. When you get west-based (and displaced south) with a strong anomaly, you're playing with serious fire and risking higher height anomalies extending into our latitude.

can you post a global look?

@40/70 Benchmark have you done your EL Nino composites yet? This is the breakdown I have using the Ensemble ONI and ONI. Note: On paper I do a breakdown of strong vs. super strong but in composites I group together (but may also do separate for composites)

Well here is a composite of all EL Nino temperature anomalies. Started to get rolling on EL Nino composites.

or Celtics...about the only two things going right.

This severe season is probably going to blow too. Everything blows

Part of the problem too is one's expectation and interpretation and also there are so many products offered and available and people run away with them and it just leads to chaos (Twitter is a great example of this). For example, with winter weather, you see model snowfall maps tossed around left and right and some try to use those solely for forecasting a storm way out or to hype and just give an unrealistic expectation. With severe weather you see it with the potential hazard types on the SHARPpy plots (people go buts when it shows TORNADO or PDS TORNADO) or the UD helicity swaths or SIG Tor and now these CIPS analogs. But I don't think models are as terrible as some make them out to be, it's just they're being misinterpreted.

At least we're gaining daylight (albeit slowly) in the late afternoon. I don't remember who I was talking to about this a few weeks back, but one thing I've noticed as I get older is how much these early sunsets really affect my mood. The only time when they're fun is when it's snowing (like a really good storm).

Well snow all done here...actually can see blue sky through the thinning clouds.

Back to snow here with some decent snow growth.

There were shitty winters even pre-Industrial era. We need to flush the atmosphere of this prolonged Nina crap we've been in. Now I don't want to be the one to count my chickens before they shit, but I am willing to bet (and I don't have scientific reasoning to back this now) that next winter will begin what will be a solid several year stretch. We go through these cycles of several meh years and several great years.

The GFS/Euro seem to be in relatively different agreement with the 500 pattern through Sunday night and then just start to diverge like crazy moving through Monday morning with the Arctic/Atlantic. Insane

confluence is a **** for the models to handle. We've seen situations in the past where around this time range the OP's do a complete 180 for a few runs. It's a pretty volatile northern stream...lots to resolve.

back to rain here or at least a mix. Happy for the coating.

What do the weeklies show for May?

winding down here but even with super light rates the ptype is still snow

Well this explains the golf ball sized flakes. Had some yellow pixels overhead. Flakes size back up too now! If this keeps up snow will accumulate more quickly then W’s in the Bruins win column IMG_0553.MOV

IMG_0552.MOV

MASSIVE flakes right now. It's like golf ball sized snow

If the system amps up too early we absolutely could see rain and rain well inland. At this point, that scenario is just as plausible as a significant winter storm down to the coast. We're going to have to hope for at least some degree of confluence

Always that one team

HOLY SHIT IT'S SNOWING!!!!! Just starting to changeover. Big flakes a fallin

Tried in 2011, but lost to the Bruins in 7-games

Once metfan begins to post SLP millibars that's when the real excitement begins

For any CT peeps who may watch WTNH this was my roommate from school and one of my best friends. Pretty awesome he had the opportunity to work on TV in the state he grew up in. https://patch.com/connecticut/across-ct/ct-meteorologist-makes-career-announcement?utm_campaign=blasts&utm_content=connecticut&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR3SCRMLAEVYXQjMvNxiOuATaf4fGE76_xeoKjW-CeWOQ36wNO383onMKv0&mibextid=Zxz2cZ