weatherwiz

The HRRR backed off a lot which I guess should have been a sign but it was also a bit inconsistent from run-to-run from last night into this morning. The 3km seemed to be pretty aggressive (which usually never is and I thought that may have been a sign). this isn’t the first time though we have seen a setup very similar to this where nothing popped. Maybe the forcing really is weak? Is there some sort of cap that’s just not breaking?

Our government sucks. Them and their stupid cutbacks so they can play golf on nicer courses. Days like today the NWS should be able to have ample resources to do additional balloon launches and even at special spots. Like 18z could have been launched at ALB, OKX, BDL, and a few other spots so we can get an actual diagnostic sense of the atmosphere. There’s something preventing stuff from popping and it’s not freaking morning cloud cover. We recovered

This is bullshit. We should just never get another Convective threat again b/c this is pure, 100%, straight up bullshit. You mean to tell me we can’t get crap to form outside of some stupid lillydaddy cell. What the hell else do we need, instability is plenty. I don’t give a crap that it was cloudy at 10:00 AM…it’s not fooking 10:00 AM anymore. It was 3:00 and the sun came out…enough to tan naked and temps soared well into the 80’s, dewpoints are high, shear is damn high, perfect timing of the front, height falls, slight cooling along AND WE STILL CANT GET CRAP TO FORM. It’s fooking stupid

Was wondering if maybe convergence was lacking but looks like quite a bit of moisture convergence across SNE.

Does look like some convection is trying to fill in. Anything that does form though is likely going to become severe quickly.

Nice mid level meso on that storm near Clinton

Only thing I can think of is if there is any sort of subsidence going on. Maybe we’re between shortwaves? On mobile so water vapor imagery a pain

I’d be stunned if we don’t see additional development as the front gets a bit closer. The HRRR isn’t showing much but I just don’t buy it. 18z 3km NAM backed off a bit but still is a bit more than the HRRR. Given the degree of CAPE/shear I’d be shocked.

I think there is still some CIN in place which may explain the lack of additional development. would think though we should start seeing stuff pop quickly off to the West over the next 60-minutes. If that doesn't happen then it probably won't.

Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. And now we will get several TORs

IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT.

Hodographs are forecast to become more straight as the afternoon progresses, however, this is something to watch which we lacked last week. If any mid-level mesocyclone becomes established there would be a higher than usual potential for a tornado today. Given the favorable low-level parameters (shear/CAPE/LCL's) low-level vortex could become elongated and interact with mid-level cyclone and voila...TOR

Watch out!!!

We may actually get a few hours of good heating. Nothing developing behind the garden sprinkler moving through CT. POU looks like they're reporting mostly sunny

We live downstream of where it all begins and we seldom get EML's in here to provide a cap and erode crap.

This is where the bulk of activity is going to likely start and fire off. It does look like there may be some room to thin clouds out a bit and get some additional heating. CAMs still pretty inconsistent with how everything evolves which makes it tough. I'm still leaning towards widespread storms across Connecticut which may strengthen as they move towards E CT

With 3000 J/KG of MUCAPE and hail CAPE ~400-500 J/KG there may be some prolific CG's with stuff today...especially the more intense action.

It's best to keep two hands on the wheel

Severe Watch coming soon. Was actually wondering if there would be debate for a TOR

Yeah that drying up is a good thing...but also a bad thing because latent heat release could act to further weaken the mid-level lapse rates a bit more but actually they looked to have steepened some. Makes sense for them to do so though as we do have CAA aloft in the mid-levels as the trough/subsequent height falls approach.

There is some legit dewpoint pooling going on. LCL's have actually lowered quite a bit. 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE with 45-55knots of bulk shear to go along with 150-200 m2s2 of effective helicity and 100+ m2s2 of sfc-500m helicity. If anything robust develops in that environment it could go to town. Have to watch southern VT/NH and western MA the next few hours

NAMNST (3km NAM whatever the hell you want to call it) is quite wild today. I have very mixed feelings with this model, but when it goes wild I think you need to take note. Its output makes sense based on the parameters and setup.

Already 2000 J/KG of MLCape region wide which is pretty remarkable for the time of day. Very tough to get MLCAPE values that high with weak mid-level lapse rates, but this is being compensated by dewpoints which are in the 74-77F range. We are pretty capped right now though which is very good, otherwise I think we would see lots of crap going up. With 45-55 knots bulk shear over the region and the high dews we don't need much heating to get things going. Solid height falls through the day and good shortwave support. May be able to see some widespread wind damage from CT into RI and E MA to the coast later on.

The HRRR I think can be tossed. Very inconsistent with how things unfold. Maybe it will get a better handle in the upcoming hours.

When shear is as strong as it is you don't need full heating or max instability to generate severe weather. While the cloud cover will certainly be one factor negating a more widespread severe weather event it won't completely kill the potential. What we'll probably see today is a few small clusters or lines which produce a swath of damage each.