weatherwiz

One thing that is great to see (and just using a single timestamp to illustrate) is how the GFS finally signals some changes to the orientation and structure of the jet across and east of Asia. We lose the Nino-esq jet extension and get a more poleward jet. Downstream we also see wave breaking shifted west 20-30° which favors higher potential for an evolving ridge across the West and subsequent trough across the east

Agreed. Also, this isn't a scenario where you have a rapidly drying column. The column remains quite moist and you still have some weak ulvl divergence present so that's a real possibility.

So after going back and assessing and taking your input, I've made the switches of the basin-wide to west-based for those years. I think before I may my list final, I want to do composites of OLR and see if that can help aid in any guidance. I also am thinking of coming up with a breakdown for SSTA's off the West Coast. There are a solid mixture of events with significant SSTA differences here and my inclination is that could be a significant player. The same can be said for Nina's. I was looking into the Trans-Nino Index, but TBH, I don't truly understand it and some breakdowns I was doing with it made zero sense.

May 12th?

cobb techniques actually go nuts with ratios during the window of maximized lift. That's what to really watch out for. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2'/HR type stuff (of course though this will all be moving quick) and that's where you'll see totals get in the 3-4'' range.

Despite the marginal sfc temperatures I think there is an argument for standard snowfall ratios (maybe even a touch higher). Not region-wide but where the best lift occurs.

Don't have ENS out that far yet but this look verbatim...given where we are in time frame...I'll take this all day. Favorable position of the ridge axis, trough digging into the southeast with shortwave energy about to round the base and go negatively tilted towards the Southeast coast. Can't ask for more than that. Who gives a **** what the SLP maps or snowfall maps show

Potent shortwave amplifying and passing near Rhode Island combined with enhanced upper-level divergence, and sufficient moisture will help aid in the blossoming of a precipitation shield across the region. Thermal profiles, particularly away form the coastal Plains support snow, especially under heavier rates. 12z NAM bufkit sounding for ORH shows a perfect crosshair signature (maximum lift within the DGZ) indicating at least a period of moderate-to-heavy snow is possible.

I'll start it. It works well for severe weather so maybe it will for winter too

Now school's close or delay if the sun is too bright. I remember April of 2002 in 6th grade and it being well into the 80's. The A/C's weren't turned on yet and it was super hot. Never heard of school closing for that. But i will say...if there is any type of heavy snow in the forecast or ice...it makes absolutely zero sense to have people be outside driving. My first job was working at an ice skating rink and during big storms (especially if school's were closed) they would stay open and add public skating times. Yeah yeah yeah I get business and its $$$$ but why give the people the option to go out? ahh right $$$$ > life

I'm actually a bit excited for tomorrow...just to see snow. whether it accumulates that's just going to be a bonus. but I'll actually stay up for models tonight (only because the Bruins play at 10:30 tonight...YUCKKKKKKK)

There is some decent divergence aloft and enhanced lift with the shortwave tracking just south. Also have sufficient moisture to work with. I guess it depends on one's expectation, but I would think we see a nice blossoming shield of light snow hit most and then where you have stronger and deeper lift you'll stand the chance to get maybe 2-3''. I suppose a 4'' total can't be ruled out but I wouldn't hope on that.

I think this really gets going a bit too late to give much of anyone (outside of northeast CT) the chance for any type of accumulation.

This is quite impressive Deeply saturated and quite unstable with strong lift right into the DGZ. That would be some excellent snowgrowth

With that shortwave digging and tracking where it is, it's difficult to not see this overperform somewhere.

This is quite unstable. Pretty solid lift too into the DGZ (This is somewhere in Worcester county...I think. I just did the plot from the national sector so could be off a bit).

Just noticed this but look at those negative SSTA's in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast lol. Will we ever see that again (maybe when the AMO flips)

Kinda sucking down an IPA too quickly so looking for something to do. Anyways, this is just a thinking out loud post. And I guess I should add a declaimer...obviously there's a ton more to take into account and blah blah but the similarities are striking. I was looking at the current sea-surface temperature anomaly configuration and looking (I know there are program and such which run algorithms and what not) for similar matches to previous La Nina episodes: Now there are several "matches" (1909-1910, 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1973-1974, 1988-1989) but when assessing ensemble guidance regarding the evolution of the H5 pattern moving forward, one match that stuck out was 1909-1910: SSTA's January 1910 GEFS 8-12 day mean H5 H5 anomalies January 1910 Now I don't know what snowfall was like that month or storminess (FWIW, it was a subpar season)

@ORH_wxman do you know where they moved all the historical snowfall records for the major climo places? I cringe b/c of the stupid debacle in the mid 90's through early 2000's with the records, but I at leave have some of those gaps filled in from what you've provided over the years.

Devers DeBrusk

warm enough

Exactly why I made the post I made I don't think Allan meant to target New England in his tweet haha

I'll take my chances with that. The look verbatim too would favor trough axis more into the Southeast as opposed to farther west. Would help with getting any digging system to go negatively tilted as it digs into the region. Much better then recent crap luck of having all this occur more into the Mississippi Valley.

We can still get snow threats here with above-average 2M temps in January and February. Obviously as you go towards NYC latitude and points south your chances decrease drastically. Also, keep in mind with using 2M temp maps (in this case is) are the anomalies being driven by well above-average overnight temps or daytime temps?

Here's 18z NAM bufkit for ORH Friday. That's not too bad looking for a period of light-to-moderate snow.