weatherwiz

These red flag warnings are nuts

I was struggling earlier with the intervals as well when re-doing temp maps. I used a range of -7 to 7 and interval of 1. I did it for All La Nina winters and weak La Nina winters (using the Ensemble ONI) and just doing a consistent legend yielded a much better look for re-analysis!

I've been wanting to start something like this for a while! It's great to bounce ideas and thoughts back and forth. I've had a vested interest in this area for like 15-years now and I've always struggled to really get going with research and analysis...mostly because I have a tendency to overanalyze and get too granular (hence the separation of basin wide vs. central based). I don't think its a bad idea either to compare to the most recent climatological period. I think there is some significant value in this because you can compare earlier years to an earlier climate period to the most recent climo period...doing this I think you can spot trends and see perhaps what areas are being influenced more heavily by recent warming trends.

Next Tuesday still has that low topped spinner threat look!!!

The best pears in the world are from Harry & David’s

Going to the grocery store and I have to put the heat in the car on…BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I miss Mother Nature’s heat

I often wonder how history would have unfolded if a pear hit Newton on the head instead of an apple

Severe threat next Tuesday and/or Wednesday (Tuesday just west Wednesday here)?

Sweet...didn't know you could change the color scheme. Ahhh I think I see why yours is saying 1990-2020 climo. Make sure you have mean checked off and not anomaly in variable statistic. Even though it says mean you'll get the map as an anomaly as its subtracting the difference from your input year against your desired climo period.

lol at "no rain after today" We'll see scattered showers throughout the day tomorrow. I wouldn't rule out the potential for a sneak band of rain to even impact portions of the outer Cape. Sure we'll dry out the end of the week with high pressure building in but 3-4 days of no rain doesn't make for "Stein". then next week...there is a boatload of moisture which will be transported up along the East Coast. With these stronger fronts and subsequently deeper trough digging into the Plains we'll be establishing deep southerly-to-southwesterly flows throughout the column...a far cry from what we were able to do during the summer. We just got widespread 2-3''+ of rain. The drought stuff before was fun but come on...we went into summer abnormally dry and widespread synoptic rain events aren't typically very common in the summer...we usually rely on convection (granted this certainly underperformed). Now we're moving into the cool season where odds for cyclogensis increases and we get more moving pieces and deeper/stronger troughs plus not to mention very warm waters (high PWAT city).

I'm not a fan of the background or color scheme either. hmmm this is what I got using your parameters Here is the input fields. Maybe you forgot to fill both boxes in with NCEP/NCAR?

Crap power briefly went out. Maybe the rain is too much on the power lines

Also given the changes I have done/am doing at some point I'm going to delete all the original graphics/GIFs I posted and re-upload them. There was a few ENSO events I forgot to add into the structure category.

The more I think about it I think that's the way I'm going to go as well. I'm going to take some time and re-do what I have saved in terms of maps/printouts and try and use a consistent legend. I've also gone back and utilized Ray's method of combining basin-wide and central-based into one (basin-wide). There are a few events though (just like 70-71 ) where they may not be a true basin wide with the anomalies shifted farther east but I think for something like that you just make a mental note. Interesting analysis regarding the use of tropical forcing. I had started making composites with this and some initial look would yield the notion of external forces acting. Another challenge too is you can have scenarios where there are multiple regions of increased convection. Of course too La Nina's can be a bit more difficult with the use of convection and tropical forcing given the colder waters typically yield more subsidence. So using EL Nino events may be better to build some background/understand regarding tropical forcing and influences on upper pattern.

Yeah OKX does shoot that high but it is at least showing it more clearly. Not that tilt 3/4 don't work either...but OKX still seems to be a bit more representative of what's actually going on.

radar site.

or a different site

That strip from southern Connecticut through Rhode Island is a magnet for enhanced rainfall totals in these setups. Anytime you get a boundary to stall across that part of the state and have enhanced convergence then throw in nocturnal scenarios where you get additional enhancement from LLJ you can bet that corridor is going to overperform, especially when you're talking about SSTA's well above the average.

The Merritt is not something I would want to be traveling on today. I don't care if I had to detour and it added an extra hour on the commute

Anyone have Noah’s number on speed dial? May need an arc

Not sure why it has that split like that. It’s like a subsidence screw zone look. Considering 3km isn’t showing that…toss

Horrible drive fro new Britain to Springfield. Hydroplaned getting into the lane for 91N from 84E…scary. Drive up 91 was brutal…especially where there are no lights.

Drought lol

It was just a regular warning...no tornado emergency