weatherwiz

13th I have something in Stamford, CT at 6:00 PM so wouldn't be able to make it

Correct, southern Oscillation Index. It's a measure of the SLP pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia which can in turn be used in conjunction with ENSO as one metric to assess how coupled the atmosphere/ocean are. SOI alone doesn't hold significance or weight on the pattern (at least in terms of influences here) but it can enhance the effects an ENSO event will have on the pattern across the PAC which could have some downstream bearing here. SOI (along with Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI)) can provide a more accurate assessment of the true strength of an ENSO event versus ONI alone.

I'd be careful just using a daily SOI value to assess. Not saying it isn't tanking (haven't looked lately) but those daily values can be heavily influenced by local weather phenomena and weather systems.

Mid-month is very interesting. As tip alluded to yesterday, that 500mb features lots of shortwaves digging and amplifying slightly south of Long Island...you keep feeding a constant supply of shortwaves and something is bound to give. I will say though and I know this leads to debate, but I would feel MUCH better if we had some southern stream involvement. If there was some southern stream feeding energy we could probably say the odds are almost certain something would happen.

Let me know. You can meet me at my place and we can car pool

The only thing getting torched that period is the Bills defense when they come into New England

One of the courses I have to do is a climate change course (well I think its an elective but I'm going to take it). Looking forward to that. Haven't read the info on it yet though so not exactly sure what would be covered.

I wish the program I was in had a winter forecasting class, that would be epic. They had a severe weather forecasting class so not sure why no winter weather. Whenever I look outside and see snow on the ground or snowing I feel all wintry and that's when I enjoy the cold. Makes me want to winter and do more winter forecasting.

So any updated head count?

Not often you see MET exceed MAV

Might be a bit stronger WINDEX signal back across north-central New York towards Albany. A quick look doesn't seem to be the case around here but could certainly see some heavier snow showers whiten things up quickly. Would be like mid-to-late afternoon too so definitely localized travel impacts possible

These more often that not have some sort of wintry precip ahead of them. Sometimes even more widespread than guidance will indicate too.

Did someone mention about snow showers tomorrow? Wouldn't be surprised to see some heavier snow showers move through, probably mainly up to about 91 though and far NW CT, as well as SNH into NE MA

I've been up in Springfield (northeast of downtown) for the last 3 years or so (but getting back to Connecticut hopefully sometime soon). I ended up with 4" which was right on the upper end of what I was anticipating over the weekend. The way it was going yesterday I thought I'd have a shot for maybe 6-7" but as soon as I mentioned that, the snow stopped and we went to freezing rain. Probably got close to 1/10" of accretion. But yup...if we can muster up multiple 2-3" events in the next few weeks, that starts adding up quickly.

That jet is going to be absolutely cranking It's not an awful look either around mid-month...window may be small but there is certainly some chance Getting anything to phase in that will be difficult but you could feasibly have a shot to get some PV interaction and before you know it, you have a good signal for cyclogenesis in our hood.

That 10th-15th period...maybe even a few days beyond that could certainly be something to watch as we get some PV lobes thrown our way

WTF? Several of what you said here is ridiculous but this just takes the cake.

Best part about ice accretion is when the sun rises the following morning

Just went outside and wow…it’s all basically a sheet of ice. Hard to tell because it’s dark but some definite accretion on the trees at least. It’s also like snowing/sleeting.

Patterns like this you can tell in the weather social media world who just rips and reads SLP charts. All of a sudden the models at D3 will develop a QPF blob and people will go, "where did this come front, models didn't have this". Meanwhile that possibility was there for several-plus days.

I don't think they do, unless they've changed that but might be worth it to ask. I can give a call tomorrow.

I'll take a barrage of clipper threats. Several 2-4/3-5" clippers start adding to the seasonal total quickly.

Miserable time shoveling the driveway and a stretch of road in front of the driveway. Only took me a bit over an hour but it was moderate rain and I got soaked and the snow on the ground started to get water logged.

Time to go out and clean before hockey. Glad I got my high noon for the game tonight the other day instead of waiting for tonight

ha, as I type that it's flipping back to snow!!!