weatherwiz

No tree left behind

Yeah this event was well modeled a week-plus out. Should have a few shots for some precip (even some flakes in the hills as dendrite mentioned earlier) next week as the closed upper-low over eastern Canada swings a series of fronts through. May actually see a bit of a lull in active weather for a period after next week. Final few weeks of the months who the heck knows...lots of signals though to see consistent deep closed off lows in the East.

TORs galore in Wisconsin. Precursor to tomorrow

ORH I think is pretty centralized for the majority. I'm definitely down...as long as it is a weekend too.

Should see some widespread 35-45+ mph gusts with that line tomorrow night. I bet we see the marginal expanded east. Could see a few embedded severe gusts

This line is so fine I may ask it on date

Let's go baby

I lotion up 365-days a year...an 366 on leap years

yup...instead of cutting into the HV the systems will cut into the OV

That's what the Lions got Sunday with Zeppe

I actually prefer these setups with like 40-50 knot LLJ as opposed to the setups where you have an insane 60-80 knot LJ.

Majority of the CAPE is elevated. Alot will have to do with how much of the region gets into the deeper warm sector. If we can push 60-63°F dews anywhere (probably better shot along the coast) that should yield enough llvl CAPE to get some good wind gusts. But I thought this looked a bit better a few days ago. This was never a setup about CAPE as any focus on CAPE should have been in the lowest few kilometers, but it was more about the potential degree of llvl CAPE with the shear. I was also heavily intrigued with the trough and it was was going to dig and then lift (as the system de-amplifies) across our region but now this looks to happen a bit West. This also has slowed down timing a bit (not that timing really matters in these setups). This will probably be best from NJ along LI, RI, and Cape

After 200-300 damage reports are received.

Thursday funday

A pretty vigorous trough amplifies as it digs into the upper-Midwest and Ohio Valley region mid-week before lifting across the Northeast later in the week. Out ahead of this trough, a strong southerly flow will develop helping to push a warm front northward. South of the warm front the airmass will become unseasonably warm and moist with temperatures climbing well into the 60's to lower 70's with dewpoints into the lower 60's. This will help to contribute to a modestly unstable airmass. Tremendous wind shear is also likely to overspread the region with a 50-60+ knots mlvl jet and a 80+ knots mlvl jet streak just off to our west. Bulk shear values will be pushing 40-50+ knots. Given the abundance of forcing, combined with the unstable airmass, a line of rain and thunderstorms is likely to push across the region late Thursday afternoon and evening. There is also the potential for some rather steep low-level lapse rates to materialize out ahead of this. Should that occur, given the wind fields aloft, the potential would exist for damaging winds along and just ahead of this line. There would also be the potential for a few tornadoes, especially in any discrete convection out ahead of the line or even embedded within the line. This could be increased is sfc winds backed a bit more southeast which is very possible given the orientation of the trough.

That's how most of Twitter (and social media is). I mean there are some excellent folks on Twitter but for the most part, everyone has their own agenda for click bait, re-tweets, and followers. For winter...its just find the model showing the most snow or some model which shows a "favorable pattern" For tropical its some D10+ solution showing a hurricane riding up the EC For severe its just posting hodographs and updraft helicity and using these graphics solely to make a forecast. I also can't stand the people that will post some D10+ solution and say, "This isn't a forecast and this isn't going to happen but here's what the ____ model shows at D12"...WHY POST IT????? FOR WHAT REASON? I'll tell you the reason, clicks, re-tweets, followers, likes.

SPC evens mentions possible severe next Friday!!! If we can get dews to get into the lower 60's we could see a fun low-topped line swing through

I am sniffing some low topped squall line severe potential the end of next week.

Yeah it's a pain. There's also the issue too that not all variables exists within each database. For example, for OLR I had to use 20th century reanalysis V2C b/c there was no OLR data in V3.

Ahh I think I know why. If you're using NCEP/NCAR 1 that dataset doesn't start until January of 1948 so a climo period of 1941-1970 wouldn't work for NCEP/NCAR. What I do is use either 20th Century Reanalysis V3 or V2c for years up through 1980. I then switch to NCEP/NCAR from 1981 as you can then compare to 1951-1980 climo period

hmm yeah I don't see to have any issues with the 1941-1970 climo period.

Does anyone know where you can get archived maps of sea-surface temperatures (with a focus on Long Island Sound)?

My last post yielded an incorrect assessment. I'm sitting here looking at my printouts of ALL La Nina winter OLR Anomalies and there is the striking correlation of +OLR Anomalies within the ENSO regions which makes sense given that is a signature of La Nina events. The composites have the majority of -OLR anomalies around the Indian Ocean, however, there are some Nina events in which there were -OLR anomalies farther east. This is probably a terrible post as there is already an answer to this, however, I am posting as I am interpreting but I am curious to see if there is a stronger consensus when breaking down via strength and structure.

So from all this you can see that even with similar Nina episodes of strength and structure there can be large variations in tropical forcing. I also want to incorporate sigma velocity potential as well into this. But from here going to try and draw some conclusions regarding the tropical forcing and see if some strong correlations can be made to temperature anomalies. However, I think (and I believe Ray mentioned this several times) there likely will be a stronger correlation to [500mb] height anomalies.

Weak Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Moderate Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Strong/Super-Strong Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI):