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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    I really wouldn't expect much in the way of wind today. Actually, if you're happening to experience a sudden bursts of strong winds there's a solid chance there could be a tornado nearby Any wind though is going to be tied into any very deep convective cores or with any brief tornadoes.
  2. weatherwiz
    STP is a 1 right over where that warning is near Lowell.
  3. weatherwiz
    That's a pretty decent velocity signature. Don't see any signs of a TDS yet though
  4. weatherwiz
    May have to closely watch that area for convection. Could be an opportunity for some initially discrete convection to develop within that and then it begins to fill in.
  5. weatherwiz
    TORNADO WATCH!!!!
  6. weatherwiz
    I think those epic solutions we were seeing are hinting at what the max totals will be but thankfully those totals should not be as widespread as advertised. All really going to come down to how progressive this can remain. LLJ is strengthening as we speak so we're going to see a greater flux of inflow too.
  7. weatherwiz
    So much embedded rotation within this stuff as it enters Connecticut. Plenty of llvl CAPE with enlarging hodos
  8. weatherwiz
    Some broad rotation just east of Danbury
  9. weatherwiz
    I got excited in bed when I saw that at like 2:20 AM.
  10. weatherwiz
    Nice little wind signature headed towards Lakeville, CT
  11. weatherwiz
    Actually some encouraging signals with this. Not sure if totally sold on that yet though. I'm a little worried this all slows to a crawl once it gets over Connecticut and then gets enhanced with the increasing LLJ.
  12. weatherwiz
    hmmm very interesting. Right in between Shirley and Lancaster.
  13. weatherwiz
    Should see the LLJ strengthen over the next several hours. Going to enhance the heavy rain across much of Connecticut northward and should also locally enhance tornado potential.
  14. weatherwiz
    No MCD yet
  15. weatherwiz
    LCLs down to 500m with 150 J of 3km CAPE and an area of decent sfc vorticity. Would be shocked not to see a few brief tornadoes around today.
  16. weatherwiz
    Not a bad looking couplet on that TOR northwest of EWR
  17. weatherwiz
    That strip almost matches the HRRR in terms of placement.
  18. weatherwiz
    NAM is definitely uneasy
  19. weatherwiz
    Have to see what the NAM comes in with but it seems pretty difficult to not expect a widespread 3-4”. The rainfall rates are going to be insane with those PWATS and Convective elements.
  20. weatherwiz
    yup that’s can’t go overlooked here at all. We get widespread 3-4”+ in a short amount of time and it’s going to be ugly.
  21. weatherwiz
    There’s definitely going to be at least a narrow swath of significant totals tomorrow in the 6-8” range but it’s just a matter of how widespread that swath is and what are the highest totals. The degree of lift over the region aided by a pretty intense ulvl jet and llvl theta-e is going to be bad news.
  22. weatherwiz
    that would be pretty horrific
  23. weatherwiz
    Lapse rates are really more important when looking at the potential for significant severe and potential for widespread severe. When dealing with potential for isolated or localized severe lapse rates aren’t as important.
  24. weatherwiz
    I didn’t even know about it
  25. weatherwiz
    I've always been curious about these plots. How is mean error obtained?
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