weatherwiz

maybe you can get some small hail though looks like core is west

Yup...I am really hoping for that. On vacation next week and the following. Relying on cold pool potential this week. Otherwise it looks pretty much, though long-range has been intriguing for some potential around the 15-18 time frame...at least potential for some steeper lapse rates and good shear

Beautiful anvil outside my window.

Maybe a core collapse here?

For no shear storm tops above 40K is pretty decent. But you can see not much of a tilt going on so cores will collapse pretty quickly which also limits just exactly how strong the storms can get

Terrain is acting as an enhanced forcing mechanism (aiding in lift)

So far everything is terrain-aided

Shear is non-existent but DCAPE is pretty high along with very steep 2-6km lapse rates so any strong cores are going to produce 30-40+ mph wind gusts as they collapse

marginal risk for wind gusts

Pretty sure I saw the top of that. Should have taken a picture.

Went to go spin a Pokestop and happened to look around and see cute, sexy, crisp TCU blossoming all around. Storms starting to pop!!

Low dews suck

Must be evaporation from all the water you used to wash the truck

I was around haha...I was 6 that summer. I'm not sure if I have a memory of that day or not. I remember 5/29/95 (I was at my sisters in West Hartford and the news was talking about it) and 7/15/95 (I woke up around 6 AM b/c I wasn't feeling well so I turned on TWC, but there was no weather and when my mom woke up I asked her...turned out the stations had been changed and when she found TWC the first thing I saw was the massive derecho on radar), but I am not sure about that June event (was it the 26th?). I have a memory of one time watching the local news and them talking about this big storm but I don't know if it was that day or another time.

I was initially thinking a few days back that we would see slow movers and perhaps poor drainage threat, but the movement of storms will be aided by the advancement of the front. Pretty crazy (it seems) to get such strong moisture advection and convergence from the north.

Thinking we should see scattered thunderstorms pop mid-to-late afternoon. Shear is pretty bad so not expecting anything severe, but lapse rates aren't too terrible and the NAM at least is pretty robust with elevated instability. Maybe there could be some small hail if any cores can become deep enough. Gusty winds probably as cores collapse.

Keeping hopes up (or praying I guess) we can muster up some cold pool low topped hailers next week

BOS Tomorrow MAV: 76 MET: 65 NBM: 83

Agreed, I don't think you'll see QPF as widespread as ensembles had or even what globals had. Most of the precipitation is likely to be more convective in nature, however, depending on the exact evolution of things there could be a narrow band/swath of heavier rain or maybe even some upslope induced rains.

70 does seem a bit much for this region. Seems like that would be more likely within the inter-mountain West or within the Great Plains.

hmmm not sure what GFS MOS is smoking. GFS bufkit supports 90 or low 90's at BDL

Wow rare time where MET > MAV. FWIW NBM is 93

It's the 6z HRRR (although lots of support from mesos and globals) but it's pretty robust with development tomorrow (robust in terms of aerial coverage).

Shear and lapse rates blow but could see some slow moving pulsers and gusty winds as cores collapse

I wonder if we can get some cold pool hailers next week