weatherwiz

Same thing with 84 in Southington...it's puzzling

Saw Kevin Hart at Mass Mutual Center last night...what a show

That's pretty close to how it goes

And as quickly as it became cloudy it became sunny lol

It is quite tedious making so many different composites. I only did those breakdowns for those variables mentioned. When it came to temperatures and 500mb height anomalies I just focused on DJFM. I think though for composites I'm only going to focus on 500mb height anomalies, temperature anomalies, OLR anomalies, SLP anomalies, and precipitation anomalies. I already have pretty much all these done (except for precipitation). I'm highly debating creating a website too where I can post these composites (especially the GIFs) so it will be easier to assess.

Holy crap did the clouds roll in quick.

Well it's not so much what the event looks like during the summer, but moreso how the event is evolving moving through the fall. For my composites I did when it came to SST's, OLR, and SLP I did composites for DJFM, OND, NDJ, and DJF to assess how each of these events evolved through the fall.

Maybe I am wrong on this, but one is how the event develops. Your typical EL Nino develops off the coast of South America and the warm anomalies will develop and expand westward across the equatorial Pacific. So really you either are going to have an east-based event or a modoki event (I don't think there really is a west-based event). La Nina's can develop anywhere within the basin and you can have your coldest anomalies west, basin, or east (and of course you have your modoki).

It looks amazing out, though a bit chilly right now. Neighbor had the pines cut down Monday and there is so much light now, it's great.

That's not what I said. I said last week we'll see a day or 2 this week where we'll be stuck into the 50's. I also said the other day we'll see an overall pattern that is warmer vs. cooler. We'll have these cool days mixed in, but when we warm we will be quite anomalous. I may have even said this yesterday.

12 days away 10 day countdown begins Friday

Gotta say...this was modeled pretty well last week.

meh this next storm up there will impact like 50 people.

I wish we could get another summer like 2008. The most prolific cold pool summer we may have ever had. Days and days of hailers in June and July. I think 22% or something of severe hail reports on record in New York (criteria I think was still 3/4'' then) occurred that year! (1950-2008).

There's a Bloom-ing idiot in Boston

It's certainly quite cold aoft, though on the outter edges of the brunt of it

Is that the equivalent of flower heaven?

This shot of cooler weather is no surprise, but the overall theme is going to be when we have warmth...it's going to be quite anomalous and its going to make these "cooler shots" seem more impressive then they really are. 50's and 30's at night with snow showers isn't crazy for April...getting consecutive days and strings of 80's and 90's is

I am wondering if the global SST's are having any influence at all. Outside of the eastern Pacific along the West Coast (which is really just an enhanced North Pacific current) and off the South America coast, waters are well above-average. I think the big focal point here is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think we pay enough credit or attention to the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico has an extreme influence on the climate across the eastern third of the country. Plus look at the waters off the East Coast. These two are almost certainly influencing advecting airmasses. I've actually been going back and finally digging through the Kocin books and was looking at some past storm tracks of big storms. These warmer waters, particularly off the East Coast (and the gulf) have to be significantly altering storm track, where cyclogenesis occurs, and even influences the cyclogenetic process itself. I would really love to compare SSTAs within these two regions (Gulf/EC) between colder/snowier winters and warmer/less snowy winters. I would bet there is some connection and perhaps a strong one.

Building on the above post the focus is going to shift in assessing OLR anomalies. While there of course is a relationship between SSTAs and convection, I don't think its as explicit where you can say "if core anomalies are east then tropical forcing is also east".

Sell any prolonged cool or below-average. There is so much hugging of of D6-10 and D8-14 static graphics. It happened all winter long, "the D8-14 pattern looks good". You see it all across social media too...folks just throw all the eggs in the D8-14 basket.

Steady rain falling now. Had some off and on showers earlier. They just finished removing the two pine trees in the neighbors yard too not long ago. Was quite impressed how quickly it took them to do it and was fun to watch.

Had some (brief) breaks of sun throughout the day. Went on a brief walk and sun came out on my walk. Felt super warm with the sun.

I've gone back through my printout charts of SSTA evolution during EL Nino fall's and winter (OND, NDJ, and DJF). Using my strength breakdown list, I analyzed the SSTA evolution for weak, moderate, and strong events. I've categorized the evolution of each event (of similar strength) and grouped like categories. This yields the following Note: when I say "weakened" I mean anomalies weakened through fall and winter. when I say "strengthened" I mean anomalies strengthened through fall into winter. Weak EL Nino Fall ---> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Anomalies did not expand or retrograde west) 2. Late blossoming EP (late blossoming EL Nino) 3. Modoki 4. EP (retrograding and weakening anomalies) 5. EP (Anomalies did not expand or retrograde west, but weakened) 6. EP (Core anomalies were located in the western ENSO region and weakened) Moderate EL Nino Fall ------> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Anomalies retrograded and weakened) 2. EP (Anomalies did not retrograde or expand west, but weakened) 3. EP (Anomalies expanded west) 4. EP (Expanded through basin and strengthened)*** (by definition this event was a strong one, but borderline so I may remove) 5. Modoki Strong EL Nino Fall ----> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Extended through basin and weakened. Became modoki) 2. EP (Extended through basin) 3. EP (Extended through basin and weakened) 4. Modoki became EP 5. (Expanded through basin and strengthened)

Well I am an idiot. I realize why I've struggled mightily with EL Nino structure. I went back to the drawing board starting off with the basics of EL Nino and its developing via references from NOAA, research papers, etc. When dealing with EL Nino structure, it's a completely different process then La Nina. With EL Nino you're either going to have EP (canonical) EL Nino (or EP to say central based) or your modoki (warming in the central or western ENSO regions.