weatherwiz

The impact of the profile farther east would be on the ratios...that snow is going to be quite heavy and wet and I could certainly see some concerns for scattered power outages. One thing I'll say too about tomorrow (and this is a big plus for everyone) is that DGZ is very deep (similar to today), it will not take much lift to really produce good dendrites and that will be a big player where you have the colder profile. I think there is going to be a zone of 8-12" somewhere which will be the max jackpot and I think that could end up being the CTRV...there will be a secondary jackpot of about 6-9" somewhere in eastern MA with totals lowered due to the wetter snow.

I would not be surprised if guidance is too warm tomorrow, even without the lack of high to the north. Going to be thick in overcast and little mixing.

Up to 2.5" here.

This is nuts...this is by far and away the best and heaviest snow of the season so far.

I will take back my comments...this has definitely peaked my interest. I think moving forward, if AI camps are steadfast and the traditional models are wavering and we have model-to-model inconsistency...well its a no brainer in which camp to lean in

You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate

Looks like the heavier banding would even get back to the CT River?

coming down pretty good here with excellent snow growth. looks like a snowglobe outside

Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps and then creating a forecast

Probably get a nice CCB that goes bonkers just in time to get the Cape. Going to be a heavy, wet snow there

Looks like the 12z is curling the vort a bit more at 33hr compared to 6z...maybe even 0z

Yup...have to give credit where credit is due and this truly ends up being the case that is a major win in the AI camp and maybe even builds some confidence moving forward in which camp to follow should we see significant discrepancies between AI and traditional modeling. Now, that doesn't mean the results would be the same moving forward but this is a big confidence boost

This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH

Back when the OV was getting that barrage of clippers there were multiple times that model was bringing good snows through Chicago while most other guidance was well south and Chicago ended up getting nada

That model gives me a headache

Yup...I want to see Euro/GFS continue with this. This has the makings of yet another big cutoff...I would feel much better if I was farther east for a bigger hit. I really have no clue where to lean right now lol. this is nuts

yup...that is going to be a big key I think

This is so tough...not sure exactly how much I'm sold on that much QPF extended back west.

Please let these trends continue 12z today.

1.3” nice!

Looks like recon is out...not sure if related to the storm but seems to be sampling along and within the Gulf

If we can get that vort better this would take off...and hell maybe the AIs are really out that prospect. But even looking at the GFS and how the we get a developing jet stream lifting poleward...you get quicker pressure falls at the sfc and the low to pop right along or near the Carolina coast, this thing probably tracks close to the benchmark. It might be a big ask but it really isn't far off from being a reality.

No they really aren't. I mean when dealing with phasing and relying solely on phasing, minuscule changes with how the energies evolve and interact can have significant differences on surface evolution. Traditional guidance is still struggling to get a good handle on the northern energy and even with how the southern energy evolves. It wouldn't take much but I presume we really need to start seeing a consensus towards positive ASAP

The NAM is pretty garbage but again not really a model to use for when dealing with phasing so all we can hope for is the GFS how some improvements