weatherwiz

Very light snow falling, ground coated!

Hoping for 1.5” tomorrow and that will get me to about 7” for the season and only 93” away from 100”!!!

Shoreline probably still cooked but this is still looking like a solid 1-2" for most and the lucky ones will grab 3...maybe even 4" for those super lucky.

I think it also has to do with the timing plus the increased holiday travel...just a way to increase awareness

Add "Atmospheric River" to the list of overused and ridiculous weather terms.

PWM crushed on GFS for sure. Bufkit is pretty impressive there. If that inv trough does take shape and evolve as hinted, someone is going to get crushed. This argues for a foot

Yup...becoming pretty clear they may cash in pretty well from this. Also encouraging seeing the GFS remaining more juiced for all, but seeing the mesos, I wonder if there is some resolution influence going on and the GFS isn't going to fully depict a similar look like some of the mesos are showing. Regardless, definitely feeling most should pick up 1-2" (coast may be burned though with marginal BL temps). Will be some surprises (Berk/NW Hills) that get 3-4".

That's a pretty good hit from SW ME into S NH on the GFS...easily warning criteria there

Looks very reasonable. I have yet to look in depth yet (haven't even checked out bufkit) but one killer here is ratios aren't going to be great (except far interior) and lift overall probably not terribly great across the region as a whole...but all of this is rather insignificant anyways given we aren't dealing with a high ceiling anyways.

Yeah if I was making a snowfall forecast now I would go in the 1-3" range for a large area...maybe something along the lines of 3-4" for the Berks and maybe far northwest CT.

They aren't, their evolution is entirely realistic. This one is most likely going to be more of a nowcast May put together a forecast later this afternoon or early this evening.

Seems like the GFS is at least a bit more impressive with the WAA. Not sure what to make out of the NAMs but I am a little concerned with them because the solutions aren't farfetched.

Those retrograding blocks can really work in our favor and models can struggle with those. That's when you can see one run showing a 980 low tracking north of the Great Lakes and then two runs later is tracking 700 miles south lol. All in all...that trend is not bad looking. I also wonder what role that cutoff southwest of Baja would play...sometimes that can be beneficial to us and sometimes not. But it does seem to be assisting in those higher heights into the PAC NW. Still some room here but its encouraging to see at this stage

The trends have certainly been noteworthy, you've done a damn good job and highlighting these trends (and not just with this period) over the past few weeks. It's been great to see some trends moving in our favor as we get closer to an event versus the other way around, which has plagued us the last several winters. I am very intrigued moving into and through January.

Going to be a weird one tomorrow...probably going to see some surprises on both sides of the spectrum...overperforming somewhere locally and underperforming somewhere too. Should rip decently though for a time wherever that fronto band traverses

Still great to see this upcoming period continuing to hold potential. The late weekend period has my eye

You’re right it’s not cold, it’s nice out. So many people out jogging, walking the dog, kids playing in the park, people sitting outside enjoying the sun in their lawn chairs, smells of BBQ’s going with people playing corn hole, have some people hiking along trails. It’s not cold

Fair

Doesn’t mean it has to be liked. Sitting in traffic during rush hour is part of going/coming to work, but nobody enjoys that

Cold and wind is pointless if it isn’t snowing. If it wasn’t windy it wouldn’t be terrible out. Just nothing fun about it

I can promise you about 99% of the population in New England would say the same thing. So 99% of the population just should up and move to Florida

Still liking that post Christmas period but I sure hope we get a bit of a mild up moving into January or get an early spring in March. This cold/wind is horrible.

There should be some decent frontogenesis that crosses the region. Still have a quite a bit to iron out with the details but there should be a sizable swath of 1-3 inches. Def some concerns with boundary layer temps in some spots, but that won't be much of a concern if we get a decent precip. shield and a far enough south track.

Got back to Springfield to a coating of snow

In terms of convectively induced wind damage, not bad for December.