weatherwiz

In the end one of two scenarios will probably occur 1) MCS activity is confined to extreme northern VT/NH and ME 2) MCS activity dives to our southwest

These things are extremely unpredictable this far out, but there is some MCS potential on Tuesday...perhaps multiple MCS rounds

HRRR gone wild tomorrow

ha, didn't think it would happen with the 8:00 update lol

Brutal

The NHC will be reducing the probs on that wave in over the next day, just like we saw last week

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above.

I'll never forget turning on TWC on 7/15/95 and like 6 AM and them talking about the line moving across the region. Fun times

In addition to some locally strong-to-severe weather potential both Thursday and Friday, there should be some risk for flash flooding as well

yup, the 90's seem to be a thing of the past

One thing to watch moving through the first week of September is the increasing likelihood for ridging to be centered more towards or just off the Southeast coast. For much of the last several weeks (At least) we've seen the ridging centered more Texas/New Mexico. This will open the room for widespread 80's and 90's in the typical hot spots and we probably become active with convective potential too given a westerly flow developing aloft.

Let's get a Labor Day '98 redux but even more widespread

yeah it sucks how relatively short in duration we get enjoyable weather. I mean 50's and 60's aren't bad but it's just so much more enjoyable to sit outside with shorts, plus when its into the 80's you can at least do water activities/beach. January though I don't mind...you're in prime winter/snow season so you just hope you can rack up winter events. The month I really despise is March. By the time March rolls around I am ready for consistent 70's. But March...and April can be dreadful and it feels like better weather will never come lol.

Can't believe its already the end of August though. 15 days from the kick off the NFL regular season and 5 weeks until NHL kicks off. Not used to September regular season for hockey

Could be some risk for a tornado or two on Thursday...probably favored across the Hudson but def have to watch into the CT Valley as well

CAMs not showing much but I'm really curious to see if we can pop anything this afternoon. CAMs are more bullish to our northwest (which makes sense) but we're going to break out into some degree of sun (at least up to and WOR) and should destabilize rapidly. Mid-levels become rather dry, however, I don't think that would be a negative today because the llvls are quite moist so air rising rapidly would negate that a bit and this would also help strengthen downdraft potential. LCL and LFC are also relatively close throughout the day so it isn't going to take much to get parcels to really accelerate. Coverage isn't going to be widespread but any means but I think we'll see at least a few decent cells with 1-1.25" hail and strong wind gusts.

Blows. At my great niece birthday party. Luckily much of then day was dry. Had a brief sprinkle around 2:45-3 but had been dry. Despite this being super light everything is wet. At least it’s not enough to stop the fire from going

Been getting an annoying mist in Enfield for the past hour…maybe even a bit longer

yup...but sooner or later we'll ramp up the summer heat into this region

By 2036 a 90F day on June 30 will be a -2 for a daytime high at BDL

Will be some nasty storms around Sunday if we can destabilize enough

may as well just extrapolate to next season

I feel like September is going to be quite the interesting month. There is still potential for us to get another surge of upper 80's and 90's for many but some signals too we could start seeing some stronger troughs sliding across Canada and northern tier of the country. That should yield some interesting weather chances

maybe we net some small hailers Sunday

I'd be curious if something similar has happened before...I would think it has (just not very common). This would be a good question for @OceanStWx I actually kind of like this and this falls in line with the new modifications to the SPC outlooks. As we become more knowledgeable in the area of severe weather and with advancements in technology and modelling I think it's a great idea to be able to try and narrow down areas of "greatest" potential within an overall larger area. I agree it can be confusing to emergency management and the public but this is where educating and communicating to emergency management and the public becomes critical.