weatherwiz

It's just so hard to get everything to align perfectly. You need the ridge to be oriented just the right way, you need to time EML advection with a shortwave/front, you need the llvl flow to transport rich moisture into the region. Everything has to be perfection

I couldn't imagine what the scenes would be like if something like that ripped through here. I mean it kind of did on 7/15/95 but the Adirondacks took the worst of it...imagine just blowing through populated areas.

Some serious wind on the south end of Chicago and headed into northern IN. 70-80+ knots ~1500 ft off the ground!!!

What a difference between MAV/MET for tomorrow

Yup...quite warm and humid will be the consistent theme well into the second half of the month with some days of average to slightly below average temps and low humidity mixed in when fronts go through. Should also remain active with convective chances

Just makes it easier to get inside once you start getting that "bad" feeling

Lower dews may be a bit of a killer today but we certainly could see a few strong storms around

It's interesting for sure. I think alot of it comes down to the mindset many people have of, "it won't happen to me". At least when it comes to lightning, I don't think people truly respect how deadly it can be. Same goes with flooding, most people don't realize how powerful moving water is. It's hard to totally fault people this because the education on this is lacking but it's definitely become better over the years with the awareness provided by local TV mets, NWS, etc. But there needs to be another element to this. It's probably something that should be incorporated into sciences courses beginning at the middle school level - I'm sure it probably is in some districts but how in-depth, not sure. At least for myself, I am extremely cautious when I am outside when there is an approaching storm. Even if the storm is a good 15-20 miles away. If I am outside with the camera I am right next to the car door with the door open or if I'm at home I'm very close to the door. I'm pretty mindful of the objects around me and what they are. But all of this of course comes with my knowledge of thunderstorms and lightning. So I am thinking of things that most people don't even realize.

Wanted to respond to this earlier since it's pretty important lightning safety but it is 100% true. People can be a great source as a connecting leader between the ground and the forming stepped leader with positive charges flowing up the connecting leader (which can be people) and when the stepped leader establishes a connection with a connecting leader...lightning! In fact, because of this the "flash" actually travels from the ground to the cloud but the whole process is so quick we see it was going from the ground to the cloud.

Was reading up about downtown Springfield/Forest Park area...pretty crazy. Forest Park closed until further notice due to storm damage. Was just at the Forest Park Zoo last weekend for Bew at the Zoo. When I parked at the T station, saw the watch was out, and those storms in east-central NY, I knew Springfield would get crushed. Don't think it was bad on my end though...a good 10-15 minutes northeast of that area.

Knew I’d get whacked at home while at Fenway. I’m like the amazing crescent

Probably get slammed at home while I’m at Fenway

Standing g outside under the overhang between house and garage. Starting to get tingles all over from electricity. May have to head in

Convection popping overhead

The lightning from that Sturbridge storm is nuts. It’s like blue

Getting lightning in all directions here

Instability is still very high and we’ll maintain the MUCAPE. Forcing is actually increasing a bit with a weak shortwave. I would have to think too this has developed a solid cold pool which should help maintenance of it. We going to get a good light show

I think this keeps going pretty well inland. Have to watch dew recovery

We keeping it going baby

Kind of no surprised no MCD for a watch extension at least for ALY CWA for Berk/Litchfield

yup going to want to watch that dewpoint/MUCAPE gradient. I also have to say...things are evolving a good 3-4 hours earlier then I was anticipating. But this is where we stand with MUCAPE. Activity may come through early enough that the storms remain surfaced-based which could mean an increased risk for damaging wind gusts well into the region. But to go along with Scott's posts about the dewpoints, there is a significant drop off in MLCAPE values away from the coast as drier air mixes down. Have to see when/if they rebound

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Fairfield County

ahhh there is nothing like the sound of unsticking your shorts from your body. You have to do it very slowly and in a very quiet environment but its a very pleasant and soothing sound for the ears and your spiritual body.

I think we're going to see a pretty nasty cluster of thunderstorms moving northeast across CT into MA this evening. Should be a quite a bit of lightning with flash flooding as a concern. Not sure if there will be damaging wind potential throughout but I could see a pocket of wind damage into southwestern Hartford County from NJ, southeast NY, and through Fairfield County

Could easily grab the data from Iowa State but it felt like you really had to wait until August to get 70F dewpoints...they would happen in June or July but it was a short duration...likely just out ahead of an approaching cold front. I also remember back in the late 2000's when I became introduced to weather models and even maybe early 2010's...we'd see the NAM go with dewpoints like 72-73-74 and it would be tossed. The NAM had a tendency to go bonkers with dewpoints. Now you see those dewpoints modeled and there's no tossing lol