weatherwiz

Awesome! God I hope I can get into this

yup...what was lost was negligible but that is what was going to happen...come in like a wall where the banding outside of the banding is a bit of a different story. Like I'm waiting for snow here despite being under some returns. will take a bit here until those heavier echoes push east

Scott is talking about dry air more towards eastern MA and his area...it wasn't a concern here

Nice 3" report from Danbury 30 min ago

The llvl dry air is/was always a concern farther northeast. Not western or central CT. It was always to saturate quickly

saw this pop up live on Radarscope!!! SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island, largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be expected prior to the short wave passage.

There are some signals another max (albeit probably weaker than the main one) developing here...exactly what Ray was indicating

should be close to go time here

BGM closed!

That was around the time BDL used to not measure correctly

I had to turn off mPING reports. 8,000,00 report about how sidewalks are being covered with snow. I'm looking for totals and trying to decipher rates. Don't need to know your sidewalk is covered

This really got solidified quickly. This is a phenomenal sign

the is a well defined warm front. this along with the fronto has to yield encouragement for along and EOR.

I don't know. We dry out the DGZ very quickly so precipitation is going to shut off quickly. A reason why I think many could actually end as a bit of sleet or freezing drizzle. But this is also why I think 18z NAM QPF is out too lunch...still has QPF falling when we've essentially dried out the DGZ. If we're still snowing past that time its Arctic sand and won't accumulate

THERE IT IS!!!

yeah they're doing well there. Seems like the drier air though is having a difficult time saturating in eastern PA into NJ. In fact, looks like dewpoints have even dropped some over the last few hours, even our region.

Crazy to think its about 2.5-3 hours it will be dumping snow. Snowing by 6-6:30 for most with a quick 2-3 hour pukeage of snow then it starts to taper off by 10-11. Fun time ahead

Don't even think anything is reaching the ground east of IPT. There is going to be some QPF lost due to dry air along the leading edge.

I wouldn't be surprised if many ends as a little sleet or freezing drizzle but cut those 18z QPF totals down a bit

LOL at the NAM...way zoinked with QPF

The simulated reflectivity of the HRRR goes to show how fickle this really will be tonight and how important being able to get under banding will be.

I really wouldn't use snow maps to quantify trends with potential snow bands

Not sure if this means much but I don't think the dewpoints were as low as modeled, we still have quite the dewpoint depression but maybe this will help to saturate more quickly? But we can already start watching everything evolve in real time. Pretty strong surge of WAA at 700mb just to our west and we have our established zone of 700mb fronto Two things we're going to want to watch through the afternoon are 1. How strong does the WAA remain 2. How quickly/when does it begin to weaken? But this look right now is certainly promising for western areas

I am going to LOVE tracking this one in real time. At this point we can put the models away, put the QPF maps away, and stop beating "QPF trends" with a hammer. None of that really matters because it's all about how the banding is going to evolve, where the banding traverses, and whether we see multiple or even several bands. So it all comes down to the evolution of the mid-level with respect to frontogenesis and the 700mb warm front. This one is going to have major surprises and there is no way to pin those down, even at this time frame. You may see a scenario where you have a narrow swath of 6-7" and you go 10-15 miles on either side of this swath and totals are only 2-3". There is just no way to portray this on a map so the best you can probably do is a larger range and understand there is an equal chance of ending up on the lower range (perhaps even an inch or two below) as there is of ending up towards the higher range. With this I don't think I'll make any changes to my map from yesterday (don't even have time anyways). If anything I would probably adjust the boundaries of the totals maybe but I can't see adding in like an area of 6-9 or 6-10". Not sure how widespread that will be and that is going to happen where the best banding is. Other than this I think its definitely a good 4-7" for everyone but there will be reports as low as 3-4".

Lower Hudson Valley into Fairfield County I think may end up in the sweet spot. I was really thinking there was room for some of the heavier banding to end up pretty far north like the NAM has. Even though the NAM is kind of alone there are two things the NAM are great at sniffing out, warm layers and banding. But the NAM has seemed to back off on the intense fronto band it had on some earlier runs but also argues for multiple bands. But one thing that is going to enhance things in the Lower HV into Fairfield County will be the proximity to the mix line and 700 warm front. It will really dump here. If anyone is going to end up with something along the lines of 8-10" it will be within this area. I am wondering if the sharp cutoff line will end up from like just west of Springfield to around Hartford south to like Guilford.