weatherwiz

Yeah GFS has been quite consistent with that. I guess that period is either going to really suck or be quite warm given how close the warmth is.

Yeah that corridor should cook pretty well given the llvl airmass, lack of clouds, and strong mixing.

Was a super chilly start but climbing nicely, even from like 90 minutes ago.

You'd think we lived in the Tropics and that it should be raining every day or every other day

I mean I guess it depends on how that is being defined. We're getting precipitation but it just seems like its not enough to be beneficial to the region as a whole. Central New England is above average over the past several weeks while a good chunk of northern and southern New England are below. We are going to have precipitation opportunities upcoming...plenty of fronts moving across the country but our issue seems to be...and this has been the theme the last few years is we are struggling to get widespread synoptic driven rains. It's happened but just not enough. The other challenge with us when it comes to warm season precipitation is it becomes heavily convectively driven versus synoptic, especially late spring through late summer. Some areas will cash in and others will not. When talking about precipitation departures I think it can be very difficult to make a characterization for an entire region because of this (unless of course the departures are uniform).

I mean that is possible but there are too many timing differences to set that in stone right now. If we get any precipitation, it won't be much but I could see some showers and isolated thunder moving across much of the region Tuesday night. Thursday - Saturday should offer multiple rounds of shower and isolated thunder.

Tuesday but could be interesting across far western NY. Some big timing differences amongst guidance. Regardless though think it will be tough to get much say east of Albany. Would figure everything weakens rapidly given not much instability. A little surprised to see a D3 enhanced though across far western/southwestern NY this early in the game given differences.

Feels like winter out there today. Thankfully it’s a one and done

Not sure the coverage will be great enough for a high risk but I suppose if concern becomes great enough for violent tornadoes then a high risk may be in the cards

Going to be some violence Monday. Might not see widespread severe weather but going to see multiple discrete tornadic supercells...pretty classic environment for those. The lack of widespread will enhance the potential

Another D3 moderate risk. April has been quiet after a wild March. Hopefully May gets active and that translates this way late May and June

The key I think is going to be what develops behind the initial slug of precip. A few days ago I didn't think there was going to be convection involved, however, this has evolved to where we may get enough of a break behind the initial batch for some weak instability to develop, prompting showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. I still think the initial slug of precip is too progressive to drop widespread 1"+ totals but if something like the NAM occurs then it is very possible from the Pike southwards into CT.

I would think so too, especially if there is any convection involved. But looking at the 12z NAM...that scenario would definitely argue for a widespread 1"+ of rain.

Still seems like a widespread 0.50"-0.75" tonight into tomorrow...don't think that has changed much over the last 2-3 days in that regard. Could see some storms though late afternoon from southern VT through western MA into northwest CT.

I'm not sold on the cutoff idea until we get closer. While it isn't uncommon for cutoffs this time of year we are also in the range where models can get cutoff happy.

Those look either like pineapples or bowsers armor

Then we 90 on Tuesday!

Curious...could that increase the likelihood of -NAO's? I could be wrong on this but isn't there also some correlation between SSTA's in the domain/NAO phase? But I guess it wouldn't matter if there was no cold around

meh

We see that for another day or two of runs we may be able too

Must be because the lack of leaf out dry grounds?

We are just over a week away from the month of May. The snow shovels and snow blowers are put away, trees are budding and blossoming, flowers are growing, and ACs are being installed. We are entering a season of change and pretty soon we'll all be celebrating the three H's. May also begins the increasing risk for thunderstorms as we introduce greater theta-e air into the region with cold fronts making their way through at times. Looking ahead to the first week of May, it looks like April closes on an unseasonably warm note with strong ridging at 500mb coupled with a cold front approaching at the surface helping to aid in unseasonably warm llvl air with a strong southwesterly flow. While there are subtle hints at some weak troughing across the Northeast to begin the first week of May, independent on any small-scale phenomena, we should begin the month above-average with respect to climo with potential for some over the top warmth given the above-average height anomalies extending well into central Canada.

ehhh that is too warm in the house actually lol. Saturday it got up into the upper 70's in the house...was tough to sleep Saturday night because it was so warm. I do like it cool at night because I can just bury myself under the blanket. I don't think this place is well insulated...it gets crazy hot inside, even if its in the 60's or 70's outside and crazy cold in the winter.

Yeah probably about 30 minutes or so ago got the burst out here. Quite a bit of blue sky and sun now. Temperatures should really shoot up over this next hour, especially given this burst out occurred just prior to prime heating time.

This thick llvl deck absolutely blows. I can see a tiny disc outlining the sun but you can tell how thick the deck is. Given its still mid-to-late April this is going to take time to erode...if it was another month from now this probably be nearly eroded. I bet its like another hour ughhh