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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Time to start watching for some thunderstorms to pop down in northern NJ, southeast NY, and then eventually into western Connecticut. Maybe another hour or two.
  2. weatherwiz
    Is that Ray's MJO phase 5 that is going to swallow us all?
  3. weatherwiz
    For sure. Yeah that thing is pretty nasty looking. Lots of wind not far above the sfc. That sucker would have little problem mixing winds down I think.
  4. weatherwiz
    Definitely a bit more impressive than I was thinking but shocked at the number of power outages...but then again it doesn't take much I guess for them to ramp up here
  5. weatherwiz
    Yeah that mesolow looks pretty potent and there is some elevated instability in place and 2-6km lapse rates aren't too bad. That mesolow could cause some issues.
  6. weatherwiz
    would not be surprised to see some more instances of thunder/lightning over the next few hours ahead of the main surge of rain.
  7. weatherwiz
    I think there will be some localized 60+ mph gusts though. Hires models continue to suggest there is going to be embedded thunderstorm activity tomorrow (perhaps two windows of potential). If we are to see wind gusts 50-55+ it's going to be within any thunderstorms.
  8. weatherwiz
    Probably Kevin passing out after reading some of the posts
  9. weatherwiz
    Forecast speeds in mph 54 GON 41 HVN 43 HFD 39 BDL
  10. weatherwiz
    True
  11. weatherwiz
    Battle between water rising and a TOR ripping through
  12. weatherwiz
    I might actually work from my basement tomorrow
  13. weatherwiz
    Be careful, Kevin said to me, why use a pit like BDL
  14. weatherwiz
    Yeah extremely rare. I think MA has had a few December tornadoes, back in 1950.
  15. weatherwiz
    The degree of 3km CAPE being advertised by the HRRR is fairly eye opening.
  16. weatherwiz
    There may actually be low potential for tornado or two tomorrow
  17. weatherwiz
    Going to need convection for these higher end gusts to occur. And even then, those gusts would probably be rather localized unless we get a damn good line of convection to develop.
  18. weatherwiz
    looking at some 12z NAM bufkit data for some CT locations. Wind....a giant bag of meh.
  19. weatherwiz
    WE HAVE A MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW!!!!
  20. weatherwiz
    Just ignore guidance and make stuff up
  21. weatherwiz
    good rule of thumb stronger the llvl jet = stronger the inversion
  22. weatherwiz
    I think that is going to offer the best opportunity for those who don't tend to get good winds in these setup to get the good winds. But that scenario is something to watch closely because it's been hinted at for some time now and mesos have been involved too as we get into range.
  23. weatherwiz
    HRRR is pretty interesting in the 15z-18z time frame, especially southwest towards NYC/NJ. Could see some strong-to-severe thunderstorms if any convection can develop.
  24. weatherwiz
    AWT
  25. weatherwiz
    Looking at 18z wind threat...pretty meh for majority. Strongest winds may clip far southeast CT but probably more so southern RI and SE MA. Scott right too...strongest gusts likely just inland away from immediate coast. There are going to be some wild rain totals. I think there will be a max strip of 4-6'' somewhere.
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