weatherwiz

well too be fair on TV you're not really going to get crazy specific and too deep into science. It's probably easier to refer to it as a "clipper" when describing the scenario to viewers.

I don't really think this is a clipper, but you can argue the main s/w energy traversing northern Maine is more of a clipper. It's ultimately an amplifying shortwave trough driving a sfc cold front through the region. Moisture convergence along the front as it pushes towards the coast results in a narrow area of precipitation (probably rain or a rain/snow mix).

I also think that BDL average is way too skewed.

Yes, thanks for throwing that in there. Important to understand that in this case.

I'll still stand by this notion unless the data proves me wrong. Majority of our big winters (and big as in large departures from average on the positive side) occur because of 1-2+ large storms...not because we get 15 3-4'' events. I bet even in phenomenal winters, the number of events which produce widespread accumulations aren't significantly greater than usual.

Gotta be honest...this is some of the worst meteorology discussion I've seen since this one Ryan Hall video I watched once.

what in the hell?

Glad I'm not the only one!

What's so "textbook" about this winter with relation to EL Nino and strong EL Nino's? You can't just assume a winter is going to be above-average in terms of temperatures just because we're in a strong EL Nino. If above-average temperatures were "textbook" there would be little variation in these plots.

At least there are no clown maps for drizzle

agreed

This is definitely an important factor to consider when assessing these things. There is more to whether the NAO or PNA or EPO is positive or negative, how the pressure centers are structured and where they're placed is way more important than the reading itself. You can have a -NAO where the block is east of Greenland, you can have a -NAO where the block is west, hell even south...we've seen that a few times over the years and northern New England actually sees above-average temperatures because the ridging pokes into the region.

That is a look I was hoping we would have seen more of here in January but that look fits into the mold of what you would expect at some point during the second half of winter when accounting for ENSO, stratosphere, etc. That look would yield potential for some great coastal cylogenesis with PJ/STJ phasing.

Well, while we still have a chunk of winter left, before we know it we'll be pushing right through spring. Birds returning and chirping for food and mating, grass growing, and trees budding. Besides all this, however, we'll be fast pushing into severe weather season and we're only 92 days away. The past few years overall have been relatively meh, not just from a severe standpoint but even from convective setups. Our best severe weather events occur with EML's or with steep lapse rates induced by a mid-level cold pool. EML events tend to occur every several years or so. As we make our final push through winter and towards spring, it's time to start gearing up for severe weather season! This is a good way to shake off some rust and discuss past events, setups, or just anything to transition the mind from winter weather forecasting to convective forecasting. 92 days to go!!!

No point in trying to explain meteorology 151

I did a little dabbling into and my thoughts were there could be a max area of 4-8'' somewhere but yeah that warm nose was a definite flag. This was a perfect setup as to when not to use snow maps...but when they're painting out 20'' or some unrealistic number...realism becomes fantasy and its just a downhill spiral from there.

Thank God I was still taking a mental break for that lol. I seriously think so many end up just disappointing themselves b/c they have some odd fetish with clown maps. Some of these products (snow maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, the wind gust maps)...get overused and are misunderstood and when they don't "verify" they blame the models for being wrong and not good...maybe its the interpretations which aren't good.

Dreading it. The most overrated, overused, and misunderstood concept on the planet

Could see some hefty snow squalls up north Thursday. Very steep lapse rates with a potent vort rotating through

Speaking of snowfall averages, whether it be monthly or seasonal, it is very possible our perception of "average is skewed". I would like to use a climo site as a test but again THE DATABASE SUCKS. But I bet looking at BOS snowfall record (on a monthly/seasonal basis) you would find a wide variation. Just adding up all those numbers and dividing by the number of years may not be totally accurate. We've certainly had some monster months and monster seasons which may be outliers. To get a truce idea of the average this stuff would have to be calculated with outliers removed.

I don't think so but I suppose it can't be ruled out. I think the bigger issue overall is the expectations we set in place as individuals. We tend to think that a favorable pattern equates to producing and it just doesn't work like that. While you can have similar patterns, how the pieces move and evolve within the pattern could be totally different. In a perfect world, we would have a complete dataset of all examples. We have an understanding of what patterns are associated with big snow events. We have the Northeast Snowstorm books which are the Bible of winter weather and we have a pretty rich database of historical events. We all can take a set of events and then create re-analysis plots and gauge similarities when it comes to the pattern. But what we are lacking is understanding how many good patterns don't produce. Historically, do good patterns produce a high percentage of the time (60-70+%) or do they produce at a much smaller percentage (10% or 20%)? This is what we don't know. The other factor too is the details. We could see a significant storm, but be a fish storm. Now because nobody got anything from it, it gets classified as a "dud"...but technically, the pattern did produce. We do seem to be struggling with good phasing events though during the winter months...whether this is just bad luck or there are influences from the climate...we can all debate this but we really won't know unless this just continues to happen year after year. We hurt ourselves probably because we try to verify weather, patterns, events based on what happens in our own backyard. Weather and patterns couldn't give two shits about anyone's backyard.

It would be nice if the MJO propagation could slow down some, especially through the more favorable phases. I guess one positive this time around entering phase 8 is the MJO signal looks a bit stronger, though there is a ton of ensemble spread. I do think we have a brief window during the second half of February for something.

I think the idea of not much hope the remainder of winter is valid. Now northern New England and higher elevations, that is a different story. They can still crank out snow events well into March and April, but for everyone else...we have to ask ourselves, what is going to be the driver to not only increase potential but to realize potential? As we move forward, we are going to have to test our luck with another round of blocking. Now, we're likely to get another period of blocking, but does that happen too late in the season to help the region as a whole or can we get it earlier to give the region a better shot? This is just one snippet since there is no way to post a loop (I don't think) without creating a gif but the prospects of getting much help/assistance from the Arctic at least through the next few weeks is very slim. The PV is fairly in tact and also becomes displaced on the other side of the hemisphere and this, combined with the PAC will just usher mild PAC air into North America. By the time we can probably make adjustments it may be too late for most of the region.

maybe in the high mountains they will be

Same thing goes with tornado season in the Plains. Everyone remembers 2011 as a historic year in terms of tornadoes and a historic spring...but what many people probably don't remember is up until shit hit the fan later in April, the season was actually off to a very slow start and it may have even been on the historically quiet side.