weatherwiz

I would not.

I think we're definitely going to be introducing PAC air into much of the country but that doesn't mean we can't or won't snow nor does it mean we can get colder weather at times. The upcoming pattern though looks a bit volatile and active so there is that. I don't want to say we're looking at a gradient pattern but something along those lines is definitely possible. It seems there is higher confidence in how the Pacific evolves (though guidance has struggled with this) with lower confidence in the evolution of the Arctic which may be tied into the models toying around with SSW potential.

have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon

That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that

I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so.

This is going to be a weird one tonight. Outside of parts of New Hampshire and Maine I don't think we're going to be seeing anything uniform tonight. I could see many not even picking up 1/2" of snow while some are lucky and puke out 2-3". Lots of convective elements within this and pockets of stronger lift. For those with snow, the ratios are going to struggle too outside of those pockets of stronger lift so I don't think this is one where we "ratio our way" to 3".

Let's shoot for 5 But lets say this convective band is true, I don't think its all snow...I think its a mixture of snow and sleet or maybe more sleet than snow.

I believe models are known to actually struggle with precipitation initialization so it's probably not something to put alot into

I've been pretty intrigued by that...it's been a signal on mesos for a bit now. Even the awful RRFS has had it

HRRR hints at some lighting possible with that convective stuff moving across southern CT tonight

80 days to go!!!

The Sierra's are certainly going to be making up their snow deficit

Kind of wondering if there will be two favored areas for the best lift. One up your way and a second area into southwest CT...maybe even along the CT shoreline

The second half of this month is going to be quite interesting. The pattern is going to become much more active, in fact, it's already making strides in that direction. Details TBD and folks can muster that up to fit their backyard mold but it certainly will not be a dull second half of the month

2.5"

I was hoping we could get 1-1.5" so certainly was a nice little surprise in that regard.

Pretty wild...I always thought it would be like early afternoon when they got really crushed. Still looks like there is a bit to go before this is even maximized there. The totals are going to be absurd. Someone is going to pull off 20+" though once wind whips up good luck measuring

yeah may end up being the case.

Still hoping we see some thunder/lightning there

Wind starting to pickup a bit here

I think it’s pretty freaking awesome how guidance not only picked up on this localized max but was very consistent.

2.5”!

I think the parade reference is should the Patriots win the Super Bowl. But also saying it's actually not terrible weather for a parade (compared to what we've had anyways).

Can't even get TTs like that during the summer

Someone in Gloucester or Rockport is going to get lucky enough and probably pull off 8-9". Someone is going to be pulling off 3-4" per hour rates for a time with thunder/lightning going on. This signal has just been way too consistent and across multiple forecast models.