weatherwiz

Yup...great post. The environment isn't too terribly far off from what you would see with a LES environment. Should actually be some weak instability present...not sure if we're looking at enough to yield thunder potential but I could see a very narrow area of enhanced lift. Someone could def pull off 3-4" on the Cape

snow flurries falling!

Hey I'm with you...I have no doubt we will cone out of it and we will get smoked again. I get there is a luck factor in this and there are things we don't truly know or understand, but all we can do is try to use data and knowledge to further understand. At this point we are closer to getting out of this and I can't see us staying in this drought for much longer. It's more of a theory at this point so I don't have a ton of data or reanalysis maps I can throw into this...but would be a fun project to dig deeper. Anyways, we have to look at the jet stream on a global scale and all the influences which shape the jet stream structure, position, and strength. As you know, when the jet stream is faster, it becomes more difficult to really amplify the jet stream (not impossible but just more difficult). I just think that where we are positioned globally, we are in a spot in which the faster winds result in an increased probability for amplification to our west and then just to our east. Where I've started to develop this idea was based on some of the weather across the West the last few years. Remember a few years back the West was getting absolutely pummeled for a 6 week stretch which was something more akin to what you would see in EL Nino versus La Nina. The orientation and structure of the jet stream was not what you would typically see. This is all a ramble...but I will eventually get back to you with more coherent thoughts.

It's not like it's just applicable to our area though, the concept would apply to other areas of the globe too. For us it's just a product of where we reside regionally.

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur.

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada.

What a quiet year and really stretch we have been in for the severe weather department. Although I did get that gustnado back in April which was cool. That September 6 event was pretty crazy though

I think the storm knocked out my internet. Been out for 3 hours. How am I supposed to watch hockey tonight???

The observer must still be salty about the Bills going for 2 and not paying attention

yup...that's a beauty of a shortwave digging in and amplifying.

I could see accumulating snow possible for far southeastern Mass Wednesday night into Thursday with that system. That's a heck of an amplifying shortwave trough moving across the region. In fact, I would not be surprised if that ended up resulting in SLP a bit farther south and west than what the GFS has. Wouldn't take a heck of a lot to get it to blossom a bit earlier

BUF gusted to 70 mph about 30 minutes ago...nice

yeah I don't understand why there isn't at least a wind advisory into CT and arguably even a HWW.

Feb 06 was awesome in West Hartford. Got 14" in 3 hours with thunder snow. Ended up with 27" I believe

Was that the one where the SLP got really low and it resulted in the precipitation to become more banded in nature versus a uniform precip shield. It was like a tropical storm with heavy bands of snow and nothing in between.

Very odd. I was just looking at bufkit, both NAM and GFS for BOS and it is going to rip tomorrow. Even the NAM which tends to undermix has gusts > 50-55 mph.

Surprised the HWW doesn't go out to eastern Mass for tomorrow

The fog is pretty wild

Just checked the power outages and hardly anything lol. Just over 8K within New Hampshire

I don't think you're going to see much in the way of damage or power outages with temps hovering 32 and moving into the daylight hours

It's so bad here. Back in 2021 a few months after my girlfriend and I started dating, she told me how bad it was here with the plows on the road and I didn't believe it lol. Then during the 2021-2022 winter she ended up in the hospital for a bit and we got a winter storm...think it was just shy of 7". They didn't even plow the road until several hours after the storm was done. And because its one of the last roads to get touched, everything is caked down because of cars traveling.

Light freezing rain here. Glad I don’t have to travel tomorrow. The road and side roads to the main road are an absolute disaster. They do a horrific job plowing those here. Barely even seems like they did the road next to me. It will be a total ice rink in the morning.

Heck of a storm for the Great Lakes region with it

Will give this a C+/B- forecast The bad: 1. definitely was not far enough northeast with accumulating snow. Reason being I thought the drier air farther north and east would be a problem, which it was but not to the overall extent. 2. The re-development. I was not expecting much in terms of re-development but that was enough to give many an extra few inches. 3. snowfall rates ended up being more than I was anticipating. I was in the thinking of up to 2-2.5” per hour while the reality was 3-4” per hour. This was a big factor in going with 4-7” versus something like 6-9”. The good 1. was happy with the fact that majority of the snow fell in a 3 hour window. 2. Was happy with the cutoff that occurred within CT between the heavier banding and when banding would begin losing some of its strength.

A lot to like about the pattern moving through January. Have to hope stuff times right but liking the signal for some coastal potential.