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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    I would not be surprised if guidance is too warm tomorrow, even without the lack of high to the north. Going to be thick in overcast and little mixing.
  2. weatherwiz
    Up to 2.5" here.
  3. weatherwiz
    This is nuts...this is by far and away the best and heaviest snow of the season so far.
  4. weatherwiz
    I will take back my comments...this has definitely peaked my interest. I think moving forward, if AI camps are steadfast and the traditional models are wavering and we have model-to-model inconsistency...well its a no brainer in which camp to lean in
  5. weatherwiz
    You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate
  6. weatherwiz
    Looks like the heavier banding would even get back to the CT River?
  7. weatherwiz
  8. weatherwiz
    coming down pretty good here with excellent snow growth. looks like a snowglobe outside
  9. weatherwiz
    Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps and then creating a forecast
  10. weatherwiz
    Probably get a nice CCB that goes bonkers just in time to get the Cape. Going to be a heavy, wet snow there
  11. weatherwiz
    Looks like the 12z is curling the vort a bit more at 33hr compared to 6z...maybe even 0z
  12. weatherwiz
    Yup...have to give credit where credit is due and this truly ends up being the case that is a major win in the AI camp and maybe even builds some confidence moving forward in which camp to follow should we see significant discrepancies between AI and traditional modeling. Now, that doesn't mean the results would be the same moving forward but this is a big confidence boost
  13. weatherwiz
    This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH
  14. weatherwiz
    Back when the OV was getting that barrage of clippers there were multiple times that model was bringing good snows through Chicago while most other guidance was well south and Chicago ended up getting nada
  15. weatherwiz
    That model gives me a headache
  16. weatherwiz
    Yup...I want to see Euro/GFS continue with this. This has the makings of yet another big cutoff...I would feel much better if I was farther east for a bigger hit. I really have no clue where to lean right now lol. this is nuts
  17. weatherwiz
    yup...that is going to be a big key I think
  18. weatherwiz
    This is so tough...not sure exactly how much I'm sold on that much QPF extended back west.
  19. weatherwiz
    Please let these trends continue 12z today.
  20. weatherwiz
    1.3” nice!
  21. weatherwiz
    Looks like recon is out...not sure if related to the storm but seems to be sampling along and within the Gulf
  22. weatherwiz
    If we can get that vort better this would take off...and hell maybe the AIs are really out that prospect. But even looking at the GFS and how the we get a developing jet stream lifting poleward...you get quicker pressure falls at the sfc and the low to pop right along or near the Carolina coast, this thing probably tracks close to the benchmark. It might be a big ask but it really isn't far off from being a reality.
  23. weatherwiz
    No they really aren't. I mean when dealing with phasing and relying solely on phasing, minuscule changes with how the energies evolve and interact can have significant differences on surface evolution. Traditional guidance is still struggling to get a good handle on the northern energy and even with how the southern energy evolves. It wouldn't take much but I presume we really need to start seeing a consensus towards positive ASAP
  24. weatherwiz
    The NAM is pretty garbage but again not really a model to use for when dealing with phasing so all we can hope for is the GFS how some improvements
  25. weatherwiz
    Looks like its still chasing convection
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