weatherwiz

MCD out...60% chance for a watch

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

No, this is the first time its happened since SPC introduced that.

Going to the Sox game on Sunday. May be dodging some t'storms

For sure. Tons of CAPE up in the hail zone

I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

The same can be said anywhere really when it comes to lapse rates. There was a setup in the midwest a few months back which was flagged with higher tornado probabilities and potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes but that never materialized...and it was a setup in which they had relatively weak lapse rates. It truly is hard to get a full fledged higher end severe weather outbreak without the present of steep lapse rates. The lapse rates here that day were horrible...but I recall they weren't modeled to be as bad as what actually transpired.

I was sitting in the McDonalds parking lot across from BDL when the tornado warning went out and was hoping something would drop

One of those two weekend days had a big microbust in CT and the other was up near Boston

Tornadoes no but I think that was the day of the big microburst or macroburst near Boston...either this day or the next.

12z NAM supports that idea

We've had 10% hatched before but this is the first time with the CIG additions which only became operational some months ago

That looks like it has a nasty hail core per ZDR. Probably dropping some big ones

I knew a 10% would eventually come

I've read that if that tornado had either started a bit sooner or just tracked a few miles different the death count would have been substantially higher. Just missed a more concentrated populated area by a few miles

Certainly possible the smoke could have an impact on surface temperatures but with an elevated mixed-layer moving in and dewpoints climbing instability shouldn't be an issue. Also, in terms of the MCS...this may sort of set the boundary for where the corridor of highest severe weather potential exists. This will probably leave behind some residual outflow boundaries and also have to watch out for a strong differential heating zone which may become established. But once the MCS passes things should begin destabilizing quickly. Big question I think is going to be do storms pop during the afternoon (like HRRR has). These would be more discrete/supercell and pose the greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes

9z HRRR for JACK Probably would like to see a bit more curvature in the 0-1km layer for true concern for a strong tornado, but those sfc winds end up more 200° you're going to ramp that up quickly. But this is a significant amount of CAPE up to the EL and that mlvl shear. You get a mature supercell moving into this environment and you're probably looking at a spaceship structure. Pretty good inflow into the environment too.

Do tornadoes crossing the border need a passport?

May be two areas today for some strong tornado potential, far northern New Hampshire towards the Canadian border and northern Maine. Have to see what sfc flow is like

I know what you're talking about but that is different. This is what I am referring too. I think The History Channel had removed the episodes from their page and then get flagged and removed from other accounts because I am always seeing them reposted under different accounts.

There is this brief series done by the History Channel called "Doomsday". 10 episodes, each about a different way we could go extinct. One of the 10 was based on the Carrington event. I actually love the series, purely for entertainment. Its well done in terms of entertainment and "fear" factor. Every now and then I'll fall asleep listening to the series and sometimes I actually dream that I am immersed in whatever the scenario is The 10 are: Hyper volcano eruption (or something along those lines) Gamma Ray burst Earth ends up out of orbit and is swallowed by the sun Black hole swallows the moon and Earth Aliens solar storm Nuclear war Asteroid Earth hit by a rogue planet can't remember the last one

Great post!

There may be two rounds of storms 1) During the evening (7-11 PM) 2) Overnight (1-3 AM) Certainly may have to watch for some discrete storms to pop too with that time frame being after 5-6 PM...something to definitely watch for in terms of tornado potential, though potential for these discrete storms early may be more northwest of Portland. I know Portland is outside the enhanced and may be a bit far southwest from the greatest potential but its a damn impressive environment there well into the overnight

May end up being one of the best light shows you can possibly ask for around these parts 6z NAM bufkit had >1000 J of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer with > 3000 MUCAPE, that's nuts for this region

I think tomorrow is going to be very close with BDL tying their all time record low.