weatherwiz

What does he mean by "a lobe of the Arctic breaks off"...a chunk of Arctic ice lol. someone should tell him the PV isn't really a thing during the summer months, I mean its so weak its not even worth calling it a vortex. Also...that period looks above average

Yup...it's unfortunate, but it is what it is. Can't fault people for wanting to make money but its a shame the way it's done.

I can't stand the channels that have the thumbnail with hyped wording and you see a picture of their stupid face looking shocked or wowed...like to reach through my screen and slap em.

That Direct Weather needs to be banned. there are a few of those ridiculous channels that should be reported and YouTube ban.

I wonder if @dendrite can post that mean error map. I wonder if EWR runs warm?

He's 40? I would have guessed like late teens or early 20's

was looking around at highs in the Northeast yesterday and EWR got to 100...wow

Crazy stuff in New Mexico. Scary videos. This stuff is really heartbreaking to see. Rivers rising 20’ in as little as 30 minutes…wtf

WOW...thats a sick capture! Was there rotation at all?

Sea-breeze hasn't really made it far inland either? Seems to be confined right along the coast or just onshore. But we'll see what happens after 5-6 PM...nice blow up of convection across PA which could not only scrape southern sections of the region but yield additional development ahead of it

Surprised they still have trees in Kent...they seem to get crushed all the time

Not shocked...looked like the core was right over Kent...was a beast

it's been horrific this entire warm season lol

Was just looking at that...nasty looking cell with a good core

Pretty good hail CAPE in place. Perhaps the high levels result in alot of melting so any hail reaching the ground is pea to 0.50" but with MLCAPE ~2000 and mlvl lapse rates ~6 the more vigorous updrafts have a shot

Shear may be a bit too weak, however, I would not be surprised if we get some cells that drop 1" hail today.

I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see some widely isolated stuff develop during the early afternoon but it's probably after 4-5 when we would really see stuff develop. The mesos are really all over the place so they probably won't be helpful today. My guess with this is because the forcing is on the weak side so it will be localized influences aiding in the development of convection (orographic, for example). Mesos do target along where the sea-breeze will be, but I think the degree of development along the boundary is underdone. In airmasses like today we tend to be active along it.

Tomorrow should be interesting too. Again, not a tremendous amount of forcing but the NAM/GFS have a nice little speed max at 500 developing across the region which contributes to ~30 knots of bulk shear. Residual outflow boundaries from today could be a focus for tomorrow. May have to watch for convection to blossom overnight tomorrow with some better forcing approaching and adequate jet streak across the region.

Not sure really...first time ever going and it was a gift from my girlfriends parents for her birthday this weekend. From my understanding though they aren't "terribly expensive"

same

Has anyone ever gone on a cruise this time of year...what are the odds of seeing distant lightning during the night? Really hoping to see some

It will be a bit more inland than that

It is going to be quite active right along that sea breeze today. Today is a day where people scream bust because their backyard saw nothing, meanwhile you have a swath of flash flooding and localized wind damage

We're going to see some flash flooding today EDIT: should say more this evening

I think precipitation amounts (as well as sky cover, wind, temperature) are just populated from a grid and there probably isn't much human manipulation in those point-and-click forecasts. I wish I could remember all this better because oceanstatewx has explained all this in great detail several times how this process works . I think this is why you'll often see forecasts saying "mostly sunny" when it ends up being filtered sun behind high clouds...I know at least NBM does better with this but I believe MOS won't report or forecast clouds above like 10,000 feet (or 12,000 feet)? But for QPF amounts with convection, I would assume in the grid its just averaging whatever is falling within that grid and that's how it determines the ranges? But I also think oceanstate has said that the wording used in the forecasts is based on QPF totals and visibility? So showers versus heavy rain wording will be tied into the QPF range and with snow light versus say heavy is tied into rate/visibility.