Floydbuster

I think it's possible that Grace becomes a more potent hurricane in the Western Caribbean than we are expecting. It's organizing and slowing down a bit.

When in doubt...take the southern route.

I think it's safe to assume Mexico, now the question becomes how strong does Grace get?

Temps in Tampa Bay show almost 87°!

Atleast he's free of land. That's helping the convection fire big time over the Gulf bathwater.

Here's a 12pm Video update. I'm much more interested in 95L this morning than disorganized Fred.

Santa Domingo getting lashed pretty hard with gusts and rain via twitter videos.

I will say, Southeast Florida has been extremely lucky. Frances could've rolled right into Miami as a Cat 4, instead it sputtered, weakened and sloshed ashore much further north. Had Katrina had an extra 24 hrs over the Bahamas, it would have been a major hurricane over Fort Lauderdale. Matthew just grazed Southeast Florida as a late season Cat 4, and Irma took that south dive into Cuba and the Keys. To say nothing of Dorian, which stopped just offshore West Palm Beach as a 180 mph storm.

12z HWRF shows a tightly coiled powerful hurricane nearing Miami

Looks like some tropical storm force winds and a closed LLC. Not the best defined and I'd like to see lower pressures, but I'd go ahead and give it a name. (and I'm conservative when it comes to naming)

Matt, I believe the wave you mention is the same one many of the long-range ensembles show as a potential storm system in the Caribbean or Gulf down the road.

That HWRF puts a 973 mb hurricane over Biscayne Bay.

Yeah. 983 mb.

The long-range ensembles show a flurry of activity right on time in late August.

Here's an 11:30pm video update on PTC 6

Look at that beautiful anti-cyclone right over the top of it.

I definitely think we could see a tropical storm out of this. The longer-range ensembles seem to like the wave leaving Africa this week as a potential Caribbean cruiser and much stronger. We're getting closer to the active times for sure.

I'm kinda surprised that the NHC is so liberal with development. I'm not convinced anything will come of either area of interest. I'm also not impressed with the long-range models but they seem to be awful on genesis. Two years ago, the long-range GFS a few days out showed a sunny beautiful day in Abaco Island when it actuality there was a 180 mph hurricane overhead. Last year, the models showed nothing of a 90 mph Hurricane Hanna slamming into Texas. I have little faith with the forecast models when it comes to genesis.

Interesting as the last two storms named "Fred" in 2009 and 2015, were far, far out in the Eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verdes. Hurricane Fred - 2009 Hurricane Fred - 2015

I'm intrigued for Texas.

Disturbing that nearly every blob hits the United States.

Interesting discussion. I was reading about "return periods" for intense hurricanes here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1 They make an interesting discussion about the rarity of a sub-900 mb landfall in America, using the 1935 Labor Day Storm as their example. Using their models, we should be coming up on a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall within the next decade or two. I can definitely imagine a tightly-coiled pinhole eye sloshing ashore in Padre Island. Hurricane Anita 1977 comes to mind as a very close call. Without extra push from the high pressure to it's north, Anita would have made landfall as a 175 mph Category 5 in South Texas.

I don't get the Guillermo reference?