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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. Floydbuster
    Matt, I'm assuming this would be "Hanna" because 99L is well on it's way to becoming named first.
  2. Floydbuster
    Yeah the CMC has the wave leaving Africa in 24-36 hrs becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in the longer range.
  3. Floydbuster
    I know the model is to be taken with an enormous grain of salt, but the long, long long range CFS model doesn't show any storms making U.S. landfall the entire hurricane season. LOL
  4. Floydbuster
    Absolutely, and they're moistening up the basin before the match gets dropped. I was just speaking of the irony. We have non-tropical systems in off-season in the North Atlantic that look better than some tropical systems in July. (Hurricane Barry 2019?)
  5. Floydbuster
    I find it amusing we have three tropical lemons in late July over boiling waters that won't do anything, but in cold May north Atlantic waters, we'll get like 10 wasted named storms.
  6. Floydbuster
    Yeah I think August 20th or so.
  7. Floydbuster
    We usually get a few duds or misfires before the action really begins. Think 2017 when we had Hurricane Franklin, a Cat 1 into Mexico, and then the fish-storm Hurricane Gert. Then it went off after the solar eclipse with Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate and Ophelia. Literally a splooge of six major hurricanes, and two other nasty ones. Same was true in 2007. I don't know who remembers but we had a few strong African waves almost develop, but fizzle, only to moisten the future environment for Hurricane Dean's monster path through the Caribbean. Don't be surprised if we get a 90 mph hurricane or something by mid-August around the Caribbean/Gulf, then a Cat-1 or 2 fish storm off Africa before the powder keg is lit.
  8. Floydbuster
    Yeah talk about a ghost town.
  9. Floydbuster
    Is it just me, or is there a tremendous lack of upper level wind shear for July 15th?
  10. Floydbuster
    Don't be surprised if we get a Charley-type major August 10-20th based on pattern.
  11. Floydbuster
    Could have been 2011 maybe? Hurricane Irene?
  12. Floydbuster
    Holy crap. That moisture prediction is basically Hurricane Ivan's track.
  13. Floydbuster
    Barely windy here in Summit County. We were anticipating 60 mph gusts.
  14. Floydbuster
    Good. There was some guy who posted computer models and showed pressures near 966 mb over the Great Lakes.
  15. Floydbuster
    Since I'm less seasoned in winter weather, what do the odds of snow look like for Northern Ohio? I have people going nuts thinking a blizzard is coming in 48-72 hrs.
  16. Floydbuster
    Cute little cane.
  17. Floydbuster
    Thanks alot. They'll probably get rid of it now.
  18. Floydbuster
    What the hell is with all these Cat 5s? We used to get them once in a while, sure. Hugo 89, Andrew 92, Mitch 98. But it was like...three per decade. Most "insane" storms peaked as Cat 4s. Think Georges, Floyd, Lenny, Keith, Iris, Michelle, Isidore and Lili. Ever since Isabel 2003, the last 16 years have given us 14 Category 5 hurricanes. I'm a skeptic as far as global warming and hurricanes, as the late Dr. William Gray told me personally that there was no correlation. But I am a little surprised at the surge in Cat 5 hurricanes. Is it better aircraft and satellite data?
  19. Floydbuster
    I'm looking at these models in the 5-7 range, and I'm literally saying outloud: Why isn't Karen moving? That ridge is dominant as hell, this thing should be sailing into Key Largo and Corpus, yet it spins like an idiot in the Sargasso Sea for a week.
  20. Floydbuster
    Meh. Not as excited about tracking this one as I was a few days ago. The "slow motion" doesn't bode well. If she moves briskly, then we could have something.
  21. Floydbuster
    You and Josh may be interested in this: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1 Discussing return periods for sub-900 mb hurricanes in the United States. "The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts." Very interesting. That means, according to "return periods", a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall should come around again in about 10-20 years. But I'm also envisioning a Brownsville landfall of a storm of that intensity. I picture a pinhole eyewall on a morning visibile crossing South Padre Island. I can picture Josh now, a big white beard, tweeting from Port Isabel.
  22. Floydbuster
    Comparing Josh's vid and this Mexico Beach Michael vid, they both in my opinion, show sustained Category 5 winds. The "whiteout" conditions in both storms is very similar to the infamous gas station video in Charlotte Harbor during Hurricane Charley, where the tiny and fast moving eyewall briefly produced sustained Category 4 winds and a gust to Cat 5 within several seconds which destroyed the gas station. The "whiteout" conditions are seen in that video as well, and Charley was 145 mph by the time winds hit Charlotte Harbor. The only thing I disagree with Josh about is that Dorian is the cherry on his hurricane sundae. I think Dorian may just be a thick layer of fudge. Just wait until he's in the eye of the next 1935. (I suspect the winds in the '35 storm were actually stronger than 185 mph, and the motion was about 6 kts in a tiny eye with 892 mb pressure).
  23. Floydbuster
    Jerry's the reason Karen is so heavily sheared in part. I thought Jerry was gonna be way past Bermuda by now. What's holding it up?
  24. Floydbuster
    Almost all the models take this system straight back west under the monster ridge.
  25. Floydbuster
    They don't seem that enthusiastic about Jerry, mostly because the models don't seem to be either.
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