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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. Floydbuster
  2. Floydbuster
    Yeah I read the discussion from the NHC and there was absolutely no mention of shear or undercutting or even fluctuations. They seem to think she is about to bomb to a Cat 5 and they are forecasting landfall at that intensity.
  3. Floydbuster
    What a monster. Looks like it might do an ERC in the next 12 hrs or so. Not good, because then the wind field will expand further.
  4. Floydbuster
    HOLY COW.
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  6. Floydbuster
    Uh-oh.
  7. Floydbuster
    Interesting. I never really look at intensity models once the inner core is established, because often times, all bets are off.
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  9. Floydbuster
    Agree. Sadly, had it done this a few days ago, it might have slipped through the weakness.
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  12. Floydbuster
    This is a very complicated forecast, I feel for the NHC.
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  14. Floydbuster
    The 00Z GFS would be a massive disaster for Haiti.
  15. Floydbuster
    The models really seem set on a potential significant late season Caribbean hurricane in a week or so. Something to watch carefully.
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  19. Floydbuster
    I still think 980 mb is pretty strong, and the outflow of 94L would be dominating against Humberto.
  20. Floydbuster
    I am skeptical of the GFS showing a strengthening dangerous hurricane over the Bahamas suddenly being sucked into Humberto. If it were just a wave, sure...but if 94L is a well established hurricane by that time, I highly doubt that it just gets sucked away.
  21. Floydbuster
    This is a very interesting setup. Here is an evening video update.
  22. Floydbuster
    Meh as of now I still think there is a high likelihood both remain out at sea, although the Bahamas and Bermuda could be close.
  23. Floydbuster
    Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent. Be ready, it is on the way.
  24. Floydbuster
    I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.
  25. Floydbuster
    I remember the long range GFS making a monster hurricane every run. One into Miami. One into New York City. The end result? Hurricane Dean, Cat 5 landfall in Yucatan. Not every long range GFS run is fantasy, especially when it is August and you have consistency run to run showing something developing. The track may be unknown, but something happening becomes more and more likely.
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