OceanStWx

Check some cross sections. I'm not sure it's subsidence so much as it is vertical velocity not occurring or maxing out at 700 mb. There's a lot of low level lift and upper level lift.

Well that asterisk in the title is key, it includes sleet as 10:1. So basically anything frozen is treated as a front end thump. It may be close on the surface temps, but that's about it.

It's going to be a weird one. If we're getting dendrites it's not likely to be from the layer around 500 mb, but maybe in the low level WAA that runs into the -8C air that contains some salt nuclei. I'd probably keep my meaty zone in the 8:1 to 10:1 range.

Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high.

I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast.

What's Ekster's t-shirt idea? The snow starts sooner but so does the sleet.

I mean BOS does average 30.9 on the 19th and 30.6 on the 26th, but the 24th averages 33.3. So the Grinch does show up in the long term climate record.

Bryce unable to sleep because of the parrots squawking outside his window.

We have 1P1, IZG, and WVL all stuck at 33 too. That's the corridor right there.

I wonder if winds are downsloping off the Whites and mixing out that inversion.

They sent out info to the NWS on crisis counselors, and I get it. When you're in it and issuing warnings there can be a video game aspect where it's not real. Until your shift is over and you see what happened on the ground. It's jarring.

Well you kind of did on 6/1/11

I don't see many hyperventilating about the violent tornado drought anymore. I'm 100% okay with not issuing nocturnal tornado warnings as part of a routine job duty.

That's just about as textbook as it gets.

Already have one TDS NW of LSX.

I may get there someday, but I don't quite look like that yet.

There's 60+ kt of 0-3 km shear over MO. There's going to be mesos spinning off left and right. And there's a little bit of 0-3 km CAPE that lingers into central IL. So I wouldn't be shocked with a few tornadoes in that line.

Ho ho ho

Maybe you can celebrate the solstice by burning the kids' sleds. The lawn is still green so no risk of fire spread.

Can start to assess the GFS maybe as early as this morning, but certainly throughout the day today. Going to want lower heights across western Canada to keep these more amped solutions alive as a threat.

Out of around 100 ensemble members the GFS op would be in the top 10 members for snowfall at ORH if not top 5 for instance.

Despite what the GFS shows, the ensembles are all in general agreement. There's a couple bigger hits for the interior, but mainly a lot of solid advisory/low end warning events.

The time of year when I just start to refer to everything as "a front"

It's sneaky dry aloft. MWN just now warming up to -11 dewpoint.