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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    I haven't seen any good study on it, but we were wondering if there has been upticks in lightning activity in the boreal zone of Canada. The clustering seems awfully close together to be firebugs intentionally starting them, but more akin to a bunch of lightning starts. Similar to what happened in Big Sur back a few years ago. But we know there have been bad seasons up there in the past. There are reports of ash up to thy knickers. Or at least the sun blotted out by smoke in the old weather records.
  2. OceanStWx
    It was added in support of the ICECHIP field research project.
  3. OceanStWx
    Hourly max hail swath at the surface, hourly max through the entire atmosphere, and hourly max at the 0.1 sigma level.
  4. OceanStWx
    Marginal risk and we're taking bets on whether we'll see lightning in the CWA today (I'm still betting yes ).
  5. OceanStWx
    EWR gusting to 55 kt
  6. OceanStWx
    Nice downburst near Raynham.
  7. OceanStWx
    The FV3 core is poor with convection, so they are moving to the MPAS core, but that's going to take some time testing too. It's not strictly a convective model, it's supposed to be short term (60 hr) hi-res guidance to replace the NAM and HRRR at the same time. So it has to handle synoptics well too.
  8. OceanStWx
    Well you're in luck. Of course the RRFS is worse with convection.
  9. OceanStWx
    Oh I would be skeptical. I don't think SPC will ever do it now that we have the added enhanced risk level, they can always just throw a moderate up and that would be a big enough deal.
  10. OceanStWx
    You know what, I'm glad this is not my problem today. This severe event looks like a nightmare. Every cell has a core above the freezing level. All capable of downbursts.
  11. OceanStWx
  12. OceanStWx
    That 1717z scan there's a big KDP core (liquid water) above the freezing level, but at the same time ZDR is pretty low, near zero. That tells me that you've got some water coated hailstones up there. So evaporational cooling and cooling from melting. I think that was the right call pulling the trigger early on that before reflectivity responded.
  13. OceanStWx
    That Berks storm actually is throwing liquid water up to over 20,000 ft. Some good downburst potential there.
  14. OceanStWx
    RIP https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-51_soliciting_comments_sref_termination.pdf We'll always have the significant tornado ingredients and some zonked out snowfall amounts to Montreal.
  15. OceanStWx
    Looks like it even split.
  16. OceanStWx
    Most of our sites are 270 or greater right now, so that trough is what is really wiping out any convergence along the front.
  17. OceanStWx
    She gone. Unless you count sunset.
  18. OceanStWx
    It seems like CAMs are leaning towards an RI to Cape cluster and that may be the only show.
  19. OceanStWx
    I just don't see the surface convergence to pop storms off in a big way around these parts.
  20. OceanStWx
    The crazy thing is nothing really stands out from the last year. If anything their daytime temps are cooler relative to surrounding sites than they were last summer.
  21. OceanStWx
    Heavy, heavy meh. Maybe you can get the moisture to pool enough in SNE for something, but then the shear is only so-so.
  22. OceanStWx
    The dinosaurs are all gone now. Actually maybe Ekster and I are the dinosaurs now.
  23. OceanStWx
    That URL Grinchy fungal foes sounds like what happens when you get one of those sticky 70 degree Christmas Days and you haven't installed yet.
  24. OceanStWx
    I could argue up to 112 mph if @dendrite's coops are well built and get swept away. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/1.html
  25. OceanStWx
    Not your classic sounding for supercellular tornadoes for sure. BUT if you keep an eye on that 0-3 km shear value, if we can keep it near 30 kt it may be enough for QLCS brief tornadoes. That's really going to be most of our tornado cases anyway. We don't get the long, looping hodographs unless it's 6/1/11 and you have hot dogs to sell.
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