MGorse
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He is.
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February 15-16 Slop Fest/Rain/Wind OBS
MGorse replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Well that did not take long. Some sleet mixed in but now it looks like mostly light rain. 34F -
February 15-16 Slop Fest/Rain/Wind OBS
MGorse replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
It has been snowing here for a while now but only a dusting on mulch areas. The snow is getting wetter so the changeover cannot be far away. Temperature down to 34 from 38. -
Not all models use the same math and physics equations plus differences in resolution which impacts the model output solutions.
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Same here. Sounds like the Fourth of July.
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Congrats to the Eagles! Hell of a game.
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Ummm…
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The Birds need to remain focused and not get cocky in the second half. Great first half!
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Thank God that halftime show is over with. Now back to the game.
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Temperature still dropping, now 29F. Freezing rain continues with some sleet mixed in.
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Larger ice pellets coming down now along with still some freezing rain. Temperature down to 30F.
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Started as freezing rain with a little sleet mixed in. I did not see any snow. 31F
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I think there will be some snow, although confidence is low given the variability in the model guidance. I recommend checking the latest forecasts again tomorrow before making a final decision.
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Rain, snow or some other form, we just need the moisture given the ongoing drought.
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It certainly looks and feels like snow is on the way, but then looking at the radar it does look all that impressive. I noticed the HRRR and the NAM/NAM nest narrowing the precipitation shield especially farther south like in the Philly metro area with it completely ending faster south of there. Radar trends so far seem to be showing that evolution so far. Time will tell.
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The NAM was heavy on the sleet with the last storm which was overdone. Let’s see if that repeats with this storm later today and tonight.
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Picked up 0.10 inches of ice due to freezing rain and also a trace of sleet. Next!
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Yup, nothing like seeing precipitation on the radar overhead for awhile yet you keep looking out at the porch light and see no snow.
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PHL's dew point is at 12F as of 8 PM. Mount Pocono's dew point is sitting at 7F.
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The 00z Dulles/Sterling RAOB (sounding) already shows a decent layer of above freezing air aloft. It is not above freezing by much but it is there. This likely is not as warm aloft farther northeast yet along with much drier air.
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The dew points are certainly low. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight and early Thursday morning as the initial cooling occurs with the onset of the precipitation while the warm air advection strengthens the warm layer aloft. It will be a battle!
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Tray tables up and fasten seatbelts.
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All aboard the GFS train.
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The 18z NAM has quite the 700-850 mb FGEN forcing resulting in that initial focused band of heavier snow.
