MGorse

I first thought about the gradient that occurs from east to west across Chester County, as it can be significant. Have you contacted NCEI (formally NCDC) regarding this? Also, are there any available reports closer to Coatesville to better understand if those values are completely off the rails or not?

This heat sucks! Dew points are awful.

What a first post you have there. LOL.

Okay, thanks. Lots of interesting information in his posts.

You seem to know how NWS Mount Holly operates, which you are just making assumptions. We are certainly aware of the USGS gauges as they are a partner of the NWS. The two gauges on the Little Lehigh are not forecast points, meaning there are no actual forecasts issued for them. Not sure what else to tell you, other than voicing your concerns directly to NWS Mount Holly via email or a phone call instead of ranting about it here on a weather board. Can you pass along regarding what happened up there last Thursday-Friday? Feel free to PM me.

Care to explain?

Ummm, okay. Some of your post is just simply wrong, we care about our entire forecast area. Perhaps reports of flooding were not received at the office. Not to say that this as an excuse (I was not working Friday, so not sure what happened), but our KDIX radar was taken offline starting last Friday for scheduled work on the dome.

The platform we use to log and issue reports went down for awhile today. Bad timing!

I am still there. Getting closer to 20 years now.

Yes.

Hmmm, interesting.

Okay sure, but at least it will snow again.

Alrighty then.

The whole sun angle thing is for real, however some including myself have been burned by this before. Regarding this storm, through about 2 PM Thursday looks like when roads will be the worst but yeah once the snow intensity lessens roads should improve during peak daylight. Of course sleet does not melt as quick on roads so that is a different story.

For the record we did talk last night. There was only 1-2 inches of snow difference between us. Once totals pass 8.0 the next range is plotted, which in this case is 8-12 inches. I did not want that displayed yet as people would gravitate to the 12 inches. We were well collaborated with our other offices.

Yup as the models tend to erode the CAD to fast especially in northeast PA and northwest NJ.

Good point as we do not want the windshield wiper effect regarding amounts and headlines.

If impacts look to be high but amounts may end up falling short of warning criteria, then the warning can be maintained (impact based warnings). This helps to keep messaging consistent given the high impact aspect. Now I will say that based on the latest forecast, ice amounts are no where near warning criteria for ice for some areas but a warning remains in effect. Changes could be coming through the afternoon. From a messaging standpoint for this storm, it does look odd that some places are under an ice storm warning while nearby areas are under a winter weather advisory with very similar ice amounts forecast. I can see some confusion about that.

Warning criteria there is 5 inches for the 12 hour criteria (used to be 4 inches), and 7 inches for the 24 hour criteria. Edit: Saw the map posted earlier.

I never get the overlapping ranges.

That was basically to match up with Lancaster County in NWS State Colleges area.

Just keep in mind that is probabilities based and is auto generated based on many models with using our deterministic forecast as the mode. But yeah lots could go wrong with this system.

Looks like more guidance showing light rain to start from I-95 east. Also, current temperatures just about at today’s forecast highs already in southern NJ and it is only 10:30 AM.

You could be right. It will depend on where the FGEN band sets up for a time.

Copy that.