Ralph Wiggum

Remember when past Monday was forecast to be highs around 10 and tomorrow was supposed to be around 60?

Over the past 18 hours we have seen the trend across guidance for less thump/overall snow with less extreme f gen banding, less of a 700mb jet, and a faster transition from snow to sleet/slop from S to N hence the lower snow depth maps. In my experience when we see these changes leading up to game time that means mixing will be the primary p type from around 202 (maybe a bit farther N and W) on South and East. Expecting snow to break out here in lower central Bucks by 7am Thursday. Moderate for a few hours maybe even a burst on SN+ right before the switch over to sleet by around lunchtime. Should be 2-5" on the ground by that point then sleet and fzra continue thru the afternoon before dry slotting in the evening with more showers type mixed precip ending shortly after midnight on Thursday. Total snow/sleet by finish here 4-7".

Its funny...laugh all u want but if this ends up a longer duration into Friday night after the thump Thurs, the CRAS will have scored a huge coup sniffing that signal out over 30 hrs ago.

@Newman either doesn't like this threat or something happened. Odd not to see more input from him.

Hug the CRAS then lol. 8" from the thump and then mix ending as snow with ~4" additional Friday into Sat.

Still snowing 7am Saturday on the CRAS. Qpf and old school p type approach close to 12" here.

My bar is 8-12" with this one so I'm not feeling it.

https://www.woweather.com/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=us&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= Use thicknesses and 850s. Old school ptype deterministic approach.

Still snowing Saturday AM on the NAVGEM

You cant just cherry pick the snowmaps with the hottest pinks to fit an agenda. Like Wentz said, we have time...30 hours....but this didn't just tick the wrong way, we saw some large jumps at 0z so far headed the wrong direction. Less juice, less waa, coastal destroys thermals.

RGEM has more qpf on Friday into early Sat than Thursday. Smh

Meh, N trend, drying trend, failing trend....it all equals less snow.

I seriously loathe this hobby at times.

Para is like 1-2" then dry slot

Para is a dumpster fire

Slipping away. Told u 0z would start the trend.

3k is 3 hrs minimum of 1-3"/hr thump snows

0z tonight latest. It has been about 30-36 hrs out all season.

Speaking of the CRAS it is a slightly longer duration version of the RGEM...snow showers still falling early Saturday AM

And the CRAS geez

I was using snow depth maps where the s edge cut back slightly. I guess qpf max ticked s so neither of us is wrong depending on how u r looking at it.

LV the hits keep on coming. This is your winter....enjoy!

Actually vs 6z that ticked N and we are already seeing warmer low levels edging more N on some guidance. We know what to expect based on seasonal trends. This will be no different. Models likely overcompensated and are now going to begin adjusting N. Still think interior SE PA is a good spot for a hefty thump before flipping.

Exactly. And since when is 1 model run considered a trend? I thought it was usually 3 consecutive....in which case the NAM is trending better as lead time lessens.